CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 C.A.P.E. Thanks for sharing. Nice shorthand on the system by Mt Holly. I certainly appreciate the visual. No problem. it is nicely done. Not sure the upcoming model cycles will change enough to make much difference for our area, but something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 No problem. it is nicely done. Not sure the upcoming model cycles will change enough to make much difference for our area, but something to watch. now the real forecasting an begin!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I don't really care if people talk about it. I just don't always get it. But I'm kind of dense. Lol just read the various discussions from NWS and WPC...The NAM is being given zero consideration in the current forecast products. In the latest MDD, in 2 different places its says- FINAL PREFERENCE: NON-00Z NAM SOLUTION. No NAM hugging y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 6zGFS brings the surface low pretty close to the coast on Tuesday night. Actually looks decent for Delmarva. Tiny steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 6zGFS brings the surface low pretty close to the coast on Tuesday night. Actually looks decent for Delmarva. Tiny steps. Done with snow here. Did you notice my new profile pic? Lush green, snow gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 6zGFS brings the surface low pretty close to the coast on Tuesday night. Actually looks decent for Delmarva. Tiny steps. dosent matter how close the low is for us....its a weak low for us(not bombing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 06z gets close to the double-low solution, drops 0.3" IMBY. Surface temps near freezing verbatim though. Edit: I just saw that the 00z Euro has the double low at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro crush Boston and gave us 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 great points and explanation is outstanding, if there was going to be any vacillations it will occur shorty in the models, My memory goes to the VD storm several years ago!! Wasn't proper "sampling" when all the "pieces were on the board" one of the things HM was saying was at the very least overdone in this day and age?? I thought it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It's a shame a monster like this slides right past us. If the 12z suite isn't an improvement, I will... accept that this won't hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Wasn't proper "sampling" when all the "pieces were on the board" one of the things HM was saying was at the very least overdone in this day and age?? I thought it was. It is when weenies say it lol. Seriously, in most cases it probably makes little difference....but just look at the pieces of energy and their current locations..a lot of real estate to cover and critical timing involved wrt to phasing. A tiny error at initialization when extrapolated could make enough of a difference to affect sensible weather at game-time. It really amazes me the models are as good as they are when you see the current location of the features involved in developing this monster low just 2+ days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 It is when weenies say it lol. Seriously, in most cases it probably makes little difference....but just look at the pieces of energy and their current locations..a lot of real estate to cover and critical timing involved wrt to phasing. A tiny error at initialization when extrapolated could make enough of a difference to affect sensible weather at game-time. It really amazes me the models are as good as they are when you see the current location of the features involved in developing this monster low just 2+ days from now. relative to the Earth, models are amazing at 72 hrs+ relative to any weenie's back yard? naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thanks! Seems like complete agreement w all models that the main low that is going to end up too far off shore for anything significant and definitely not historic for the mid Atlantic. Doubtful any sampling today or tomorrow is going to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Thanks! Seems like complete agreement w all models that the main low that is going to end up too far off shore for anything significant and definitely not historic for the mid Atlantic. Doubtful any sampling today or tomorrow is going to change that. I'm not sure I'd think any solution is that etched in stone at 48 hrs+ even if the models seem headed one way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm not sure I'd think any solution is that etched in stone at 48 hrs+ even if the models seem headed one way Agree. Still a decent shot of a 2-4 inch event I-95 points east, and the further NE the better shot at something more significant. A lot would have to change to get MD-N.VA-DE into a heavy snow event. Not impossible at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 dosent matter how close the low is for us....its a weak low for us(not bombing) Unless it does bomb earlier . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Agree. Still a decent shot of a 2-4 inch event I-95 points east, and the further NE the better shot at something more significant. A lot would have to change to get MD-N.VA-DE into a heavy snow event. Not impossible at this lead. Is 2-4 really even on the table for 95 and East? I honestly haven't been paying too much attention to this potential storm for the last 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Is 2-4 really even on the table for 95 and East? I honestly haven't been paying too much attention to this potential storm for the last 2-3 days. last night's Euro gives us 3" snow (per snow maps but with around .3" qpf) and the NAM and GFS both have >.25" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 frankly, I doubt we get any help from the coastal but the u/l Low is quite energetic so that's where we see our shot, if at all imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 of course, Ian and Matt's fav model, the NAM, is really trying to yank that coastal back in to us, or at least some of its moisture lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 image.jpg heaviest snow centered near the MD/PA border....whoda thunk? even if the NAM isn't right, at least it has that idea programmed well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 of course, Ian and Matt's fav model, the NAM, is really trying to yank that coastal back in to us, or at least some of its moisture lol yeah, you got me looking at it now. The 12Z NAM drops .5 (DC) to nearly an inch (N and NE MD) of liquid thru 66. and I know snow maps are a bad deal, but they put down 5"+ from Northern AA on north and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 yeah, you got me looking at it now. The 12Z NAM drops .5 (DC) to nearly an inch (N and NE MD) of liquid thru 66. and I know snow maps are a bad deal, but they put down 5"+ from Northern AA on north and NE. the only thing that makes the NAM even remotely plausible (if at all) is that there is a huge moisture source in the Atlantic with that slp offshore from which to draw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 of course, Ian and Matt's fav model, the NAM, is really trying to yank that coastal back in to us, or at least some of its moisture lol I like the NAM for stuff it's supposed to be used for. I'm fine siding with the WPC crew on this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 NAM was given zero weight in overnight forecasts. Not the model to hug apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 heaviest snow centered near the MD/PA border....whoda thunk? even if the NAM isn't right, at least it has that idea programmed well! Looking forward to more York posts over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looking forward to more York posts over the coming days. Wonder if J Berk will toss his beloved Canadian model in favor of the NAM. I am sure he can invent some reason why it should verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 And 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Sorry.. look how it handles the main low. Not even remotely close to the globals. What a freaking waste of time to discuss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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