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Season Finale :(


Ji

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Did anyone see Doug Kammerer on Channel 4 last night at 11? Basically said he didn't see any more cold air on the horizon after we got through the first part of the week.

 

That's a terrible call. There is practically complete global ens consensus for a cold shot next week. Euro op is prob a little nuts but there's a lot of support for true arctic air stopping by. 

 

Look at the 12z gefs way out to April 2nd. Strong signal for the -epo to continue and maybe combining with a +pna. This is a really cold look for April. 

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That's a terrible call. There is practically complete global ens consensus for a cold shot next week. Euro op is prob a little nuts but there's a lot of support for true arctic air stopping by. 

 

Look at the 12z gefs way out to April 2nd. Strong signal for the -epo to continue and maybe combining with a +pna. This is a really cold look for April. 

 

Doug K has been awful lately. He will make a call, change it while the event is unfolding and then tweet about how he "was right on top of it" and people are amazed with him. Ridiculous. 

Following that method he will probably switch his forecast to cold and claim that he had it all along. Problem is not limited to him - lots of TV mets do it as we've seen. 

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So basically this puts everyone on the EC in the game for next week? Since the PV intrusions have been responsible for suppressing these last few storms?

 

 

Just ridiculous. At this point I am fully embracing winter's dominion over us all and will wait patiently for it to peacefully relinquish its power. 

 

Well hold those horses...I just said it looks good for an EC low...as in that's a good look as seen in the past. The normal day 8+ caveats apply...it could also go OTS.

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Coastal is right. Nice look on the mslp panels. Better than last night even. 

 

Members have about 19 or so showing 2"+. 7-8 big hits. Lots of spread of course. 

 

Simply a period of interest that bears watching. Once the cold air returns, any sw could do something....or nothing. 

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Doug K has been awful lately. He will make a call, change it while the event is unfolding and then tweet about how he "was right on top of it" and people are amazed with him. Ridiculous. 

Following that method he will probably switch his forecast to cold and claim that he had it all along. Problem is not limited to him - lots of TV mets do it as we've seen. 

 

Look at these April 2nd panels on the gefs. Euro isn't as gung ho but there is another cold shot towards the end of the ens run. To me the pattern looks similar to january in some ways. Not as extreme of course but similar teleconnections and cold fronts a plenty. 

 

post-2035-0-21480900-1395092027_thumb.jp

 

 

post-2035-0-55694400-1395092036_thumb.jp

 

post-2035-0-55369600-1395092046_thumb.jp

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Year without a summer. Make it stop.

It's been a pretty big change the last 13 months compared to the previous 3-4 years. Not sure it can last much longer unless were are in some sort of.large scale/longer term longwave shift.

I think the duration has caused some changes in both the atl and pac sst anoms. They have been stubborn for sure. The amo has changed but it could be just a blip. But it could be meaningful. I have limited knowledge there so I have little to add beyond a simple ob.

The bump in arctic ice may be connected. Last time it happened was 96. But it had no legs. If we finish this melt season with limited downside compared to last season then I'll be more convinced that there is something more significant going on in the nh. We had quite a run of warm winters in the last 10+ years. But not the same in Eurasia. Maybe the tables are turning for a time. Or maybe I'm grasping.

I wouldn't mind a -2 jja period at all and a -5 djf next winter. Lol

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It's been a pretty big change the last 13 months compared to the previous 3-4 years. Not sure it can last much longer unless were are in some sort of.large scale/longer term longwave shift.

I think the duration has caused some changes in both the atl and pac sst anoms. They have been stubborn for sure. The amo has changed but it could be just a blip. But it could be meaningful. I have limited knowledge there so I have little to add beyond a simple ob.

The bump in arctic ice may be connected. Last time it happened was 96. But it had no legs. If we finish this melt season with limited downside compared to last season then I'll be more convinced that there is something more significant going on in the nh. We had quite a run of warm winters in the last 10+ years. But not the same in Eurasia. Maybe the tables are turning for a time. Or maybe I'm grasping.

I wouldn't mind a -2 jja period at all and a -5 djf next winter. Lol

on a related note, the CFS2 has been showing this for a while.....look around the Great Lakes area on its monthly temp forecasts on the link below

apparently, the CFS2 has the Lakes temps well below normal, possibly due to the record or near record ice on them from the cold this winter? idk

all I do know is, I've never seen that on the CFS2 or the CFS1

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

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It's been a pretty big change the last 13 months compared to the previous 3-4 years. Not sure it can last much longer unless were are in some sort of.large scale/longer term longwave shift.

I think the duration has caused some changes in both the atl and pac sst anoms. They have been stubborn for sure. The amo has changed but it could be just a blip. But it could be meaningful. I have limited knowledge there so I have little to add beyond a simple ob.

The bump in arctic ice may be connected. Last time it happened was 96. But it had no legs. If we finish this melt season with limited downside compared to last season then I'll be more convinced that there is something more significant going on in the nh. We had quite a run of warm winters in the last 10+ years. But not the same in Eurasia. Maybe the tables are turning for a time. Or maybe I'm grasping.

I wouldn't mind a -2 jja period at all and a -5 djf next winter. Lol

I am hoping and praying HARD for a turn to MUCH more frigid values. I have been dreamin' of that since I was a teenager.

Make that  a -4 jja period and a -7 djf next winter.

When it comes to cold and snow I am admittedly unapologetically HARD effin' CORE!

 

I am longing for an all-out Little Ice Age. I want it BAD!

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6z GFS is still showing an SECS, though progged much further south than the 0z. It's highly unusual to see so many model runs over several days showing a storm at this range. We first started seeing this on GFS around 2 days ago, and while not every run has shown something, most have. Since then the Euro and Canadian have jumped onboard with something around that range possible between SC and NE.

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