redskinsnut Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Did anyone see Doug Kammerer on Channel 4 last night at 11? Basically said he didn't see any more cold air on the horizon after we got through the first part of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Did anyone see Doug Kammerer on Channel 4 last night at 11? Basically said he didn't see any more cold air on the horizon after we got through the first part of the week. That's a terrible call. There is practically complete global ens consensus for a cold shot next week. Euro op is prob a little nuts but there's a lot of support for true arctic air stopping by. Look at the 12z gefs way out to April 2nd. Strong signal for the -epo to continue and maybe combining with a +pna. This is a really cold look for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 That's a terrible call. There is practically complete global ens consensus for a cold shot next week. Euro op is prob a little nuts but there's a lot of support for true arctic air stopping by. Look at the 12z gefs way out to April 2nd. Strong signal for the -epo to continue and maybe combining with a +pna. This is a really cold look for April. Doug K has been awful lately. He will make a call, change it while the event is unfolding and then tweet about how he "was right on top of it" and people are amazed with him. Ridiculous. Following that method he will probably switch his forecast to cold and claim that he had it all along. Problem is not limited to him - lots of TV mets do it as we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The PV lobe lifts up with a strong s/w diving SE on the east side of a ridge axis, placed in a good spot out west. Nice look for an EC low on the EC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Is this January or March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 So basically this puts everyone on the EC in the game for next week? Since the PV intrusions have been responsible for suppressing these last few storms? Just ridiculous. At this point I am fully embracing winter's dominion over us all and will wait patiently for it to peacefully relinquish its power. Well hold those horses...I just said it looks good for an EC low...as in that's a good look as seen in the past. The normal day 8+ caveats apply...it could also go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Sorry for the OT, but Anyone have any idea how way below normal SST's on the Chesapeake and immediate Atlantic coast might affect early season back door cold fronts? Could we see below normal temps in may/june based on this alone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Well hold those horses...I just said it looks good for an EC low...as in that's a good look as seen in the past. The normal day 8+ caveats apply...it could also go OTS. Thats all we can really ask for at this point,... thanks Coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Coastal is right. Nice look on the mslp panels. Better than last night even. Members have about 19 or so showing 2"+. 7-8 big hits. Lots of spread of course. Simply a period of interest that bears watching. Once the cold air returns, any sw could do something....or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Doug K has been awful lately. He will make a call, change it while the event is unfolding and then tweet about how he "was right on top of it" and people are amazed with him. Ridiculous. Following that method he will probably switch his forecast to cold and claim that he had it all along. Problem is not limited to him - lots of TV mets do it as we've seen. Look at these April 2nd panels on the gefs. Euro isn't as gung ho but there is another cold shot towards the end of the ens run. To me the pattern looks similar to january in some ways. Not as extreme of course but similar teleconnections and cold fronts a plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Where can I look at those, Bob? Pay site? Unfortunately yes, pay site. Ewall has h5 means and the individual member stuff. Probably the best free site for a lot of things. Here's the ensemble page if you don't already have it bookmarked. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 There is really no foreseeable end to this pattern in the long range through at least 240. Over the longer haul we could really be in for an active severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I guess DT wasn't crazy when he discussed the possibility of more PVs through March into April last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Year without a summer. Make it stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Year without a summer. Make it stop.It's been a pretty big change the last 13 months compared to the previous 3-4 years. Not sure it can last much longer unless were are in some sort of.large scale/longer term longwave shift. I think the duration has caused some changes in both the atl and pac sst anoms. They have been stubborn for sure. The amo has changed but it could be just a blip. But it could be meaningful. I have limited knowledge there so I have little to add beyond a simple ob. The bump in arctic ice may be connected. Last time it happened was 96. But it had no legs. If we finish this melt season with limited downside compared to last season then I'll be more convinced that there is something more significant going on in the nh. We had quite a run of warm winters in the last 10+ years. But not the same in Eurasia. Maybe the tables are turning for a time. Or maybe I'm grasping. I wouldn't mind a -2 jja period at all and a -5 djf next winter. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It's been a pretty big change the last 13 months compared to the previous 3-4 years. Not sure it can last much longer unless were are in some sort of.large scale/longer term longwave shift. I think the duration has caused some changes in both the atl and pac sst anoms. They have been stubborn for sure. The amo has changed but it could be just a blip. But it could be meaningful. I have limited knowledge there so I have little to add beyond a simple ob. The bump in arctic ice may be connected. Last time it happened was 96. But it had no legs. If we finish this melt season with limited downside compared to last season then I'll be more convinced that there is something more significant going on in the nh. We had quite a run of warm winters in the last 10+ years. But not the same in Eurasia. Maybe the tables are turning for a time. Or maybe I'm grasping. I wouldn't mind a -2 jja period at all and a -5 djf next winter. Lol on a related note, the CFS2 has been showing this for a while.....look around the Great Lakes area on its monthly temp forecasts on the link below apparently, the CFS2 has the Lakes temps well below normal, possibly due to the record or near record ice on them from the cold this winter? idk all I do know is, I've never seen that on the CFS2 or the CFS1 http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Hearing the euro control showed a 897 mb low lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Hearing the euro control showed a 897 mb low lol. Snowicane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Anyone have a link to that Control Run? Might just be B/S, just saying what I heard on a NYC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Anyone have a link to that Control Run? Might just be B/S, just saying what I heard on a NYC forum. Why ruin a good story with something silly like facts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'd be curious to see the breakdown of who likes severe weather/who doesn't vs those who rent/own their property. I'd bet there's an inverse correlation between increasing love for severe and the the following variables: Age Amount of property and real estate owned # of children Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I suggest we merge this with the Long Range! I see all typed of information that would be great to have in just one thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Hearing the euro control showed a 897 mb lol Hurricane Wilma redux? j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Hearing the euro control showed a 897 mb low lol. I don't think a model of the resolution of the control could produce such a low pressure. However, it does bomb our storm down to 948mb. Which is VERY unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Gfs has the storm for 3/24. Then again gfs IS the new nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It's been a pretty big change the last 13 months compared to the previous 3-4 years. Not sure it can last much longer unless were are in some sort of.large scale/longer term longwave shift. I think the duration has caused some changes in both the atl and pac sst anoms. They have been stubborn for sure. The amo has changed but it could be just a blip. But it could be meaningful. I have limited knowledge there so I have little to add beyond a simple ob. The bump in arctic ice may be connected. Last time it happened was 96. But it had no legs. If we finish this melt season with limited downside compared to last season then I'll be more convinced that there is something more significant going on in the nh. We had quite a run of warm winters in the last 10+ years. But not the same in Eurasia. Maybe the tables are turning for a time. Or maybe I'm grasping. I wouldn't mind a -2 jja period at all and a -5 djf next winter. Lol I am hoping and praying HARD for a turn to MUCH more frigid values. I have been dreamin' of that since I was a teenager. Make that a -4 jja period and a -7 djf next winter. When it comes to cold and snow I am admittedly unapologetically HARD effin' CORE! I am longing for an all-out Little Ice Age. I want it BAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Both the GGEM and the GFS have a sub 960 storm heading into the North Atlantic towards canada. Now all we need to do is get it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 6z GFS is still showing an SECS, though progged much further south than the 0z. It's highly unusual to see so many model runs over several days showing a storm at this range. We first started seeing this on GFS around 2 days ago, and while not every run has shown something, most have. Since then the Euro and Canadian have jumped onboard with something around that range possible between SC and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 That storm on the GFS looks like a storm in late January not March, christ. screen shot tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 My god look at the support for on the GEFS this AM, how to screenshot on windows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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