needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Looks like enough in the York PA area for that contingent to be even more annoying than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 at 66 hrs, that 5H trough is darn close to something big, even for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Some gets in before sunrise. Cartopper! Today was nice. I got a little sunburn on my neck. Nothing has broken our way snow wise. Models have been super steady. I'm ready to hit the submit button on my snow totals and wait for the mod nino / -nao winter in 8 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 at 66 hrs, that 5H trough is darn close to something big, even for us The track is basically identical to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Today was nice. I got a little sunburn on my neck. Nothing has broken our way snow wise. Models have been super steady. I'm ready to hit the submit button on my snow totals and wait for the mod nino / -nao winter in 8 months don't need sun where I come from to have a red neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Today was nice. I got a little sunburn on my neck. Nothing has broken our way snow wise. Models have been super steady. I'm ready to hit the submit button on my snow totals and wait for the mod nino / -nao winter in 8 months Yeah.. snow tv isn't quite as interesting in late March as in early December. At this pt maybe just keep hoping it speeds up to maximize whatever falls before dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 don't need sun where I come from to have a red neck I drive a suburban with 140k on it. Maybe 98.7FM and dome light has something to do with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Today was nice. I got a little sunburn on my neck. Nothing has broken our way snow wise. Models have been super steady. I'm ready to hit the submit button on my snow totals and wait for the mod nino / -nao winter in 8 months I read a long article/blog pertaining to projected Enso conditions over the next year and some are pointing toward a strong El Niño with similar effects to the winter of 97-98. I think it's premature to forecast a record Enso this far out but who knows. Light to moderate Enso would be good for winter next year but too much of anything is bad. Any thoughts on Enso strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The track is basically identical to 18z. more qpf for us though....not that it will make a big difference an inch or 2 is all I'm looking for before 70 degrees next weekend and a white flag on winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I drive a suburban with 140k on it. Maybe 98.7FM and dome light has something to do with it sounds like the women where I come from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I read a long article/blog pertaining to projected Enso conditions over the next year and some are pointing toward a strong El Niño with similar effects to the winter of 97-98. I think it's premature to forecast a record Enso this far out but who knows. Light to moderate Enso would be good for winter next year but too much of anything is bad. Any thoughts on Enso strength? We were talking Nino for this winter in April of last year. Anything is possible but we're neg neutral now. Calling for a strong Nino next year is Bastardi'ish. If we go 1.5+ for djf I would surprised. Strong nino's are pretty uncommon. It's sketchy at best to go big with an 8 month lead. We'll have a running thread all summer on the topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That's a cold airmass behind this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Yeah.. snow tv isn't quite as interesting in late March as in early December. At this pt maybe just keep hoping it speeds up to maximize whatever falls before dawn. get out and make room for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 sounds like the women where I come from They all have the same name too. Hun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 pretty as UKmet looks, I don't think it gets more than .1-.2" qpf to us (at least thru 72 hrs) http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 We need to just give up already... we will get nothing... this is not our setup. Bring on Spring and MLB!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 GGEM fwiw http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 That's a cold airmass behind this storm. Anything under -10°C 850's after the spring equinox should just be banned by law outright. Bring on tall and skinny CAPE season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 CMC east. Not feeling good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Canadian sucks for everyone except it gets into the 940s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm growing increasingly concerned for the Cod on the grand banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Raw GFS keeps us close to freezing on Wed. I'm taking the over but that would be something. MOS is 41.. so perhaps like m/u 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Raw GFS keeps us close to freezing on Wed. I'm taking the over but that would be something. MOS is 41.. so perhaps like m/u 30s. MOS is semi-useless at this point due to the fact it purposely biases towards climo at the end. Couple that with such an anomalous cold shot and I'd take the raw output + DCA bias over MOS. Edit: So, 32-34 would be my guess at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 MOS is semi-useless at this point due to the fact it purposely biases towards climo at the end. Couple that with such an anomalous cold shot and I'd take the raw output + DCA bias over MOS. Although it failed in the storm this week I'd probably at least run to the middle. Likely seeing a cold bias at range still with raw temps plus it should be fairly sunny on Wed. This isn't as cold of an air mass either I don't believe. I wouldn't take MOS verbatim per se.. though NWS appears to be (or at least not basing too heavily on just the GFS). We can check back on these temps later though.. I'd be shocked if the whole area isn't warmer than this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm growing increasingly concerned for the Cod on the grand banks The ghost of Alfred Pierre watches over over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 The Cape and the islands get pretty hammered per 6z GFS. That would be some seriously heavy snow for a time. Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2014 Author Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro crush Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nice analysis/explanation from Mount Holly- Good morning. We wanted to show you the pieces of the puzzle through a water vapor satellite image valid at the start of the 00z model run time. In general the warmer and drier the air mass is, the more deeper (or closer to the surface this image can see). We also superimposed on the map the land based radiosonde (raob) sites with the four letter identifiers. So here we go! Arrow 1: This is a Pacific storm. This wont get into the raob network until after our ocean low has passed. What this will do is pump up the ridge along the west coast and force the short waves (energy) to dig, or dive south from their present locations. Arrow 2: This piece of energy will start initiating the low pressure system in the southeast United States. Arrow 3 (pointing toward that purple X). That is the piece of energy coming from near the North Pole that will phase with the British Columbia (arrow 2) energy and cause our low pressure system to rapidly intensify off the eastern seaboard. This piece of energy was just getting into Canada last night. The next and subsequent sounding model runs, it will be better sampled and give us a clearer picture of what to expect Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is still satellite and aircraft observations that make it into the computer models, so its not a totally data void area when these systems are not over land. But every bit of sampling helps and this should narrow the gap between the model solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Nice analysis/explanation from Mount Holly- Good morning. We wanted to show you the pieces of the puzzle through a water vapor satellite image valid at the start of the 00z model run time. In general the warmer and drier the air mass is, the more deeper (or closer to the surface this image can see). We also superimposed on the map the land based radiosonde (raob) sites with the four letter identifiers. So here we go! Arrow 1: This is a Pacific storm. This wont get into the raob network until after our ocean low has passed. What this will do is pump up the ridge along the west coast and force the short waves (energy) to dig, or dive south from their present locations. Arrow 2: This piece of energy will start initiating the low pressure system in the southeast United States. Arrow 3 (pointing toward that purple X). That is the piece of energy coming from near the North Pole that will phase with the British Columbia (arrow 2) energy and cause our low pressure system to rapidly intensify off the eastern seaboard. This piece of energy was just getting into Canada last night. The next and subsequent sounding model runs, it will be better sampled and give us a clearer picture of what to expect Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is still satellite and aircraft observations that make it into the computer models, so its not a totally data void area when these systems are not over land. But every bit of sampling helps and this should narrow the gap between the model solutions mt holly wv.jpg great points and explanation is outstanding, if there was going to be any vacillations it will occur shorty in the models, My memory goes to the VD storm several years ago!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 C.A.P.E. Thanks for sharing. Nice shorthand on the system by Mt Holly. I certainly appreciate the visual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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