winterymix Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NAO has been positive all winter, and we have had progressive flow most of the time. Key is western ridging and the amplitude/orientation of the trough. Its doable. May not happen, but not because of your over simplistic analysis. My overly simplistic analysis included a look at the EURO which is unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'd certainly like to see the winter end on a high note, but we can't have everything whether it snows or not Tues night/Wed morning, it's in the 60's by Friday and the back of winter is essentially broken I'm satisfied with this winter and excited about the NINO/east QBO/cold pool off NS for next winter, which will be here before you know it Disagree. This is America. We can have everything. It was 70 imby last Sunday and then 24 hours later I'm using my snowblower. GEFS are west of OP so I'm hanging in until tomorrow's 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Disagree. This is America. We can have everything. It was 70 imby last Sunday and then 24 hours later I'm using my snowblower. GEFS are west of OP so I'm hanging in until tomorrow's 12z runs. ...but only if it can be bought with money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Disagree. This is America. We can have everything. It was 70 imby last Sunday and then 24 hours later I'm using my snowblower. GEFS are west of OP so I'm hanging in until tomorrow's 12z runs. Its spring. I like today's weather. I am ready. That being said it is still fun to track what will be a very impressive storm. Its kinda fun because I couldn't care less whether it snows here or not. But objectively, I think there is a reasonable chance. GFS is not bad, NAM out of its range is implying something, and SREFs came quite a bit west in one run. Euro and GGEM are certainly not lost causes. Tonight's runs need to show some earlier/deeper amplification overall, and I agree by 12z tomorrow it will be pretty much etched. Still some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro is .26 qpf. For northern md. All snow. Problem is all that falls at the worst time of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It did end on a high note... March 17th was the end of winter I think you've been saying that since the middle of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Euro is .26 qpf. For northern md. All snow. Problem is all that falls at the worst time of the day. does it really matter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF ensembles Wed AM 100 miles nw of yesterdays idea, but not as moist yet as operational. Trend NW should continue IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Self-erasing snow for DCA? YES!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 My overly simplistic analysis included a look at the EURO which is unimpressive. The euro has been unimpressive all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 The euro has been unimpressive all winter! thats not true at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF ensembles Wed AM 100 miles nw of yesterdays idea, but not as moist yet as operational. Trend NW should continue IMO The Euro ensembles are the only thing trending west if what he is saying is true. The gfs is actually trending east, and the Euro has stayed pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We're within 72 hours of onset, most models have the storm too far east to gives us more than a glancing blow. They have been showing this quite consistently for a couple of days. Too little snow falling during the day on March 25th is not going to give us any accumulation except maybe a little on the grass. Can things change? Anything is possible. Are they going to change? Probably not how we want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 thats not true at all It has'nt been that good from this range and when you compare to past years..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The euro has been unimpressive all winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Verbatim, EPS mean is 1" of snow for DC. There's one 6"+, seven 2-6" hits. It looks like we'll probably have some precip falling but it'll be snow TV and won't accumulate. At least the warmth quickly returns by next weekend. #spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 LC stubbornly holds on to the idea of a I-95 storm, says all guidance has shifted west and is hugging the UKMET, stating it specializes in bombogenesis events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 LC stubbornly holds on to the idea of a I-95 storm, says all guidance has shifted west and is hugging the UKMET, stating it specializes in bombogenesis events... He's surfing the equatorial breach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 18Z RGEM 700mb vert motion sort of looks nice down along the Gulf of Mexico as there are some decent uvv's further west than the 18z runs of the NAM and GFS...but I am likely grasping, I know http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=WW700&hh=054&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 18Z RGEM 700mb vert motion sort of looks nice down along the Gulf of Mexico as there are some decent uvv's further west than the 18z runs of the NAM and GFS...but I am likely grasping, I know http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemreg&run=18&stn=WW700&hh=054&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=18&mod2=gemreg&hh2=054&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en It's likely over bud. I'm calling time of death tonight after 0z runs if things don't shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 All that's left for us to do is envy Boston and hope it shafts them too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 All that's left for us to do is envy Boston and hope it shafts them too. I envy no one if envy is driven by a late-March snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The euro has been unimpressive all winter! When it shows no storm in our area three days out, reality intrudes. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I hope it misses well east. Screw snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The Antarctican Model is predicting 10 feet of snow over Ian's house, with nothing on any of his neighbor's property. That said.... Getting hard to say we have a chance of much anymore. Models are lock-step to our east now for over a day. Maybe some fringing. Plus surface temps are looking marginal even if it is snow here - likely little to no accumulation even if we get several inches. To me the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS just seal it. Things might shift west, but it is getting less and less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's likely over bud. I'm calling time of death tonight after 0z runs if things don't shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm pretty well confident this one will miss us. Much of what we receive Tuesday will be from upper leve support. Upper trough pattern is too progressive for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 I'm pretty well confident this one will miss us. Much of what we receive Tuesday will be from upper leve support. Upper trough pattern is too progressive for us.Still a cool storm. Wonder if it'll really get sub 960mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro is going to smoke us tonight. I can feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Euro is going to smoke and mirror us tonight. I can feel it. Fixed your post Still a cool storm. Wonder if it'll really get sub 960mb. Very True. Watching Jim Cantore get blown over on Cape Cod will be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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