stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GGEM gives us the middle finger too. BOS crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GGEM gives us the middle finger too. BOS crushed. Storm vista just initialized and you've seen it already? I'm canceling my membership. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We prob will still see some stuff fall from the clouds from the upper trough tho not sure I'd bank on stickage.. maybe NW. Light rates and daytime with above freezing is a good recipe for white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Next..............winter. This one is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Is the media still hyping this as a Mid Atlantic storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We have a better chance of seeing a team down by 4 with 1 second left come back and win a game. And that's it folks, happy tornado and hurricane season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We have a better chance of seeing a team down by 4 with 1 second left come back and win a game. And that's it folks, happy tornado and hurricane season! Uh, we saw that last night just about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 UKmet not so bad at 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 UKmet not so bad at 72 hrs http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest energy diving in at 72 hrs is on the west side of the trough, but almost at the base http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=wspd&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=wspd&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Uh, we saw that last night just about? Yeah I was kind of joking and trying to imply our chances are slim but not zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 still think the models are showing the intensification occurring too late. so as it stands right now, we may have some light snow tomorrow night and again on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 still think the models are showing the intensification occurring too late. so as it stands right now, we may have some light snow tomorrow night and again on Tuesday. unless we can get that western ridge to pump, we'll miss this one so be it if we do as it's been a great, long winter plus, this avoids the mud later next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I am still liking the runs from about 3 days ago. Any chance we can build a time machine, go back in time, and convince the atmosphere to evolve the right direction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 WPC's discussion seems promising at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The GFS ensemble mean is a good bit west of the operational GFS. .25-.50 total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Storm vista just initialized and you've seen it already? I'm canceling my membership. Lol It's on the meteocentre's webpage for free, lol. at like 12:10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's on the meteocentre's webpage for free, lol. at like 12:10 One of the best and fastest free sites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 We need to have universal definitions, in terms of miles, for the following: a bit a good bit somewhat x (direction) a jog a skosh a tick/a tickle an equatorial breach distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 still think the models are showing the intensification occurring too late. so as it stands right now, we may have some light snow tomorrow night and again on Tuesday. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Bastardi keeps hinting that he likes Masco's "low forms over warm water" thing which folks on here didn't like. "@BigJoeBastardi: Model feedback have to estimate where to put low, then spin it up.Think this forms over warm water just off Va coast, system se side note" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Apparently, the Euro looks better for places further north but does it look east here still? Wide right. The Cape gets crushed. Serious beach erosion up there with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Apparently, the Euro looks better for places further north but does it look east here still? It looks like the same track as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well, I putting on my parachute...not going to bail yet, but I'm inching closer to the plane door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well, I putting on my parachute...not going to bail yet, but I'm inching closer to the plane door. Agreed, plus NAO and progressive pattern = way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks like I will have to wait for my first epic Nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Agreed, plus NAO and progressive pattern = way east. NAO has been positive all winter, and we have had progressive flow most of the time. Key is western ridging and the amplitude/orientation of the trough. Its doable. May not happen, but not because of your over simplistic analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well, I putting on my parachute...not going to bail yet, but I'm inching closer to the plane door. I'd certainly like to see the winter end on a high note, but we can't have everything whether it snows or not Tues night/Wed morning, it's in the 60's by Friday and the back of winter is essentially broken I'm satisfied with this winter and excited about the NINO/east QBO/cold pool off NS for next winter, which will be here before you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 15z SREF gets good precip further west than 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'd certainly like to see the winter end on a high note, but we can't have everything whether it snows or not Tues night/Wed morning, it's in the 60's by Friday and the back of winter is essentially broken I'm satisfied with this winter and excited about the NINO/east QBO/cold pool off NS for next winter, which will be here before you know it It did end on a high note... March 17th was the end of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well, I putting on my parachute...not going to bail yet, but I'm inching closer to the plane door. I think the most likely scenario for us right now is about 0-2" of snow, but here are some of the things that are keeping my attention: 1) We're three days out. There's a lot of consensus in the models, but there's still some wiggle room. It would be pretty impressive if the globals nailed this thing 4+ days in advance. 2) The 12z GFS and Canadian ensembles both improved, with a healthy cluster of tracks west of the op. 3) I read the play-by-play of the Euro run on the NY forum, and it sounds like it's a shift back towards the double-low solution, even if it's not quite there yet. I don't have access to the Euro so I can't see for myself, but the double-low runs have been the best for us. 4) The UKMET has been consistently west of the other models. Meteocentre doesn't have a lot of UKMET data (e.g. precip plots) until you're within 72 hours, but that means that starting from tonight's 00z runs we'll be in range. I'd like to see what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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