mattie g Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Final call, 100-120 mph wind gust in cape cod. Crap snowfall amounts everyone in this forum. Bigger impact by damage then Sandy (in billions). 948 will pwn you. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43253-snow-bro-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I remember the NWS was issuing high confidence forecast for foot plus snow fall like 3-5 days out. And the guidance back then was now where near what we have today... that was a crazy signal. I was relatively new to Virginia in '93 but do recall that the '96 storm was predicted quite far in advance. I'm curious - what was the state of the art in NWP 20 years ago? Some of the mets on the board were involved with these forecasts. How different were the tools/analysis then? Maybe a good topic for another thread? I'd be interested in learning more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Will be interesting to see if this is really a trend or just some wobbles. And the answer appears to be "wobble". 06z took a slight step back with the precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 can anyone explain why the shift east has predominated on this particular storm?? Its not a "shift" east. The tendency for a storm to take an offshore track is partly due to progressive flow and lack of blocking. The question becomes how soon and to what extent does phasing of the individual pieces of energy occur? The sooner, and more negative tilted the trough, the better for getting the low to track closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Its not a "shift" east. The tendency for a storm to take an offshore track is partly due to progressive flow and lack of blocking. The question becomes how soon and to what extent does phasing of the individual pieces of energy occur? The sooner, and more negative tilted the trough, the better for getting the low to track closer to the coast. I realize all that but most of you keep watching for a westward shif,t but what is your reasoning for this??By the model out put nothing has really changed very much., What makes you think anything is going to change?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NAM is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I realize all that but most of you keep watching for a westward shif,t but what is your reasoning for this??By the model out put nothing has really changed very much., What makes you think anything is going to change?? Did you read what I said? The speed and degree of phasing, how deep the trough is and whether it takes a neg tilt. Basically the amount of amplification is quite possibly underdone on the current guidance. There was a trend at 0z for more amplification. Need to see if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Did you read what I said? The speed and degree of phasing, how deep the trough is and whether it takes a neg tilt. Basically the amount of amplification is quite possibly underdone on the current guidance. There was a trend at 0z for more amplification. Need to see if that continues. I saw another explanation and wanted to see if you gave the same answer!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I was relatively new to Virginia in '93 but do recall that the '96 storm was predicted quite far in advance. I'm curious - what was the state of the art in NWP 20 years ago? Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Being over 72 hours out it's pretty safe to assume there will be significant changes either way. There is a difference however in needing a west shift compare to a north shift. The north shift seems easier to achieve in the later stages were the west shift can be like pulling teeth. As to your original question it's probably more wishing and hoping it improves because I think more factors argue for this to be glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 can anyone explain why the shift east has predominated on this particular storm?? From what I can tell: 1. Phases later 2. PNA Ridge not as strong as would want 3. Tilt of trough is too progressive. This is weenie talk, so maybe a met should chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Sea surface temps yesterday look nice for feeding energy into this monster: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 From what I can tell: 1. Phases later 2. PNA Ridge not as strong as would want 3. Tilt of trough is too progressive. This is weenie talk, so maybe a met should chime in. like your 2nd answer best!! thanks !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 6Z run of the NAM basically blew up the trough coming in from the west to give us something (clipper type event) NAM is on its own on that angle but maybe we should root for that happening since the coastal may just be another fish storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Amplification of the upper ridge over the West Coast and exact placement is also a factor for Middle Atlantic impacts. It starts off fairly amplified then flattens some. Keeps the trough more progressive for us. Phases later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It looks to me that much of the wintry precip that falls in this area Tuesday (except perhaps along and east of 95) is associated with the upper trough hanging to our west as the coastal gets going and moved northeast. If the low develops to our east we will still have a shot at light accumulations. Eastern shore could get some of the wraparound banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Da heck is the NAM doing? Miller B'ing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 From what I can tell: 1. Phases later 2. PNA Ridge not as strong as would want 3. Tilt of trough is too progressive. This is weenie talk, so maybe a met should chime in. Not bad at all. See above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 NAM is exceedingly intoxicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Da heck is the NAM doing? Miller B'ing it? see my post above...same as 6z it's more of a clipper as the coastal escapes east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 see my post above...same as 6z it's more of a clipper as the coastal escapes east It almost has that look that the GFS did when this was a 168-180 hour event when it blew up a clipper/Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I was relatively new to Virginia in '93 but do recall that the '96 storm was predicted quite far in advance. I'm curious - what was the state of the art in NWP 20 years ago? Some of the mets on the board were involved with these forecasts. How different were the tools/analysis then? Maybe a good topic for another thread? I'd be interested in learning more. Main difference from 20 years ago was resolution and the number of guidance members I believe. Names were also different. NAM was called ETA, GFS was MRF or AVN. There was the LFM and NGM which were not great. Resolution was brutal...no such thing as 4km like some of the short range guidance we now have. We also now look more into the ensemble members vs straight deterministic runs. Within the NWS prior to 1999 the main interface was called AFOS which did not have the computing power that the current system AWIPS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 see my post above...same as 6z it's more of a clipper as the coastal escapes east Great, now we have to figure a way for the clipper to slide south of us. Actually the 500 placement is pretty good for us. Like to see two more frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Since the Canadian model has a progressive "too far east" bias, I'll ride the Canadian racehorse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Actually the NAM has had this idea for a few runs now, if you extrapolate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS won't play ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Navgem supports a better Norlun as well. GFS is still the great Flizzard of 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Since the Canadian model has a progressive "too far east" bias, I'll ride the Canadian racehorse. 00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg Why are you posting an 0z run while the 12z is running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 GFS won't play ball It hates us all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It hates us all winter and we've just fine w/o it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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