Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 WPC did ok this past Monday despite model waffling. Hmmmm the models do show a bomb off the coast just too far off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 T the models do show a bomb off the coast just too far off the coast I apologize...I should have made it a question. Wasn't the big deal this past Monday they stayed the course for snow for DC Metro in spite of model progressively showing less snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 T I apologize...I should have made it a question. Wasn't the big deal this past Monday is they stayed the course for snow for DC Metro in spite of model progressively showing less snow?? Listen.. Just roll with it... we have cashed in like 10 times this year.... It is probably gonna snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At 7pm, Accuweather mentions a significant chance of the Carolinas, VA and DeMarva being impacted by a major storm. A "A more "wound up" storm will travel north along the coast while a weaker one will be further off the coast." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Listen.. Just roll with it... we have cashed in like 10 times this year.... It is probably gonna snow... Perfect! I agree, was just responding to someone saying WPC was barking too early. I disagree. All good, will let it go now. Back to Coors light, Angry Orchard dry...and Pink Floyd..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At 7pm, Accuweather mentions a significant chance of the Carolinas, VA and DeMarva being impacted by a major storm. A "A more "wound up" storm will travel north along the coast while a weaker one will be further off the coast." Does a wound up storm hug the coast or simply mean the precip field is wider? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At 7pm, Accuweather mentions a significant chance of the Carolinas, VA and DeMarva being impacted by a major storm. A "A more "wound up" storm will travel north along the coast while a weaker one will be further off the coast." paging HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 When excitement trumps reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Last call so we might as well drink up before the lights come on and that Phil Collins song starts to play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 paging HM. Not hm, some other guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Perfect! I agree, was just responding to someone saying WPC was barking too early. I disagree. All good, will let it go now. Back to Coors light, Angry Orchard dry...and Pink Floyd..lol Mother do think they'll drop the bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Lol!! Great song! But I want the bomb 100 miles closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Lol!! Great song! But I want the bomb 100 miles closer alright... this is my last post.. then I will keep it to banter.. but there are three things in my life that i consider perfect.. beer, pink floyd and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 T I apologize...I should have made it a question. Wasn't the big deal this past Monday they stayed the course for snow for DC Metro in spite of model progressively showing less snow?? The models didn't really show progressively less snow. In the last couple of days they settled down to show DC getting about 0.7" qpf, which is probably about what they got. There was some concern that the models weren't getting temps right, but in the end they did pretty well on those too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Models will be all over the place. Stay on target. This storm is gonna end up nailing Washington under tremendous amounts of snow. Ready your shovels and snowblowers No need to bail or punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm just casually waiting for things to break. Didn't happen today and too far east is clearly favored for now. Until we see the trough trend neutral in time or a vigorous piece of energy hang back we're in trouble. We still have time to keep the final nail out of the coffin but if I had to place a bet tonight it's a pretty easy decision which way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'm just casually waiting for things to break. Didn't happen today and too far east is clearly favored for now. Until we see the trough trend neutral in time or a vigorous piece of energy hang back we're in trouble. We still have time to keep the final nail out of the coffin but if I had to place a bet tonight it's a pretty easy decision which way to go. It's going to break 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It's going to break 12z tomorrow. Definitely could. You can't punt something like this yet. Today was discouraging in some important ways but the final solution hasn't been lasered in on. We're prob gonna see snow fall from the sky either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Definitely could. You can't punt something like this yet. Today was discouraging in some important ways but the final solution hasn't been lasered in on. We're prob gonna see snow fall from the sky either way I definitely like your chances the further east you are. I just seems like the phase is going to happen to late on this one. I think I would want to be on the Eastern Shore next week if I had to pick a spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I definitely like your chances the further east you are. I just seems like the phase is going to happen to late on this one. I think I would want to be on the Eastern Shore next week if I had to pick a spot. With the front of the trough consistently being modeled + tilt it will be tough to get enhanced precip to the br and westward. Could be an enhanced band if the trailing energy is strong as it gets vacuumed into the coastal. Sure would be nice to trend towards neutral axis as the coastal tracks towards nc. As it stands now I agree with areas east of the bay having the best chance at a good precip hit. Surface temps are trickier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 They keep it southeast of the benchmark... We are missing the classic Quebec High Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I miss this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Had the March 13 1993 storm tracked 40 miles SE of where it did track, I probably would have reveled in a record 3 foot snow. I would have gone out and shoveled MASSIVE, EPIC amounts of snow and would have embarked on an epically loooooong jebwalk worthy of Xenophon and the Ten Thousand's march across a third of Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Had the March 13 1993 storm tracked 40 miles SE of where it did track, I probably would have reveled in a record 3 foot snow. I would have gone out and shoveled MASSIVE, EPIC amounts of snow and would have embarked on an epically loooooong jebwalk worthy of Xenophon and the Ten Thousand's march across a third of Europe. That doesn't really make sense. The air would've stayed colder, but precip would've been less, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 That doesn't really make sense. The air would've stayed colder, but precip would've been less, too. Well what I meant is that if the storm had tracked in such a way that I would have had more snow, as opposed to the 8 inches I did get followed by a few hours of moderate rain then back to 3 inches of snow. Not that I am complaining about 11 inches of snow; I am happy about what I DID get with the storm. But, I think it would have been pretty cool to get three feet of snow with the 1993 Superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well what I meant is that if the storm had tracked in such a way that I would have had more snow, as opposed to the 8 inches I did get followed by a few hours of moderate rain then back to 3 inches of snow. Not that I am complaining about 11 inches of snow; I am happy about what I DID get with the storm. But, I think it would have been pretty cool to get three feet of snow with the 1993 Superstorm. I lived in southern Carroll County and we never went to rain... had some sleet mixed in... one of the best storms I have even seen. I out of school for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Well what I meant is that if the storm had tracked in such a way that I would have had more snow, as opposed to the 8 inches I did get followed by a few hours of moderate rain then back to 3 inches of snow. Not that I am complaining about 11 inches of snow; I am happy about what I DID get with the storm. But, I think it would have been pretty cool to get three feet of snow with the 1993 Superstorm. It would have been, but that storm wasn't producing that sort of thing widespread even where it was all snow. Most places in the apps were less than 30". Only rather isolated locations, mainly places where lake effect/terrain enhancement occurred, got over 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It would have been, but that storm wasn't producing that sort of thing widespread even where it was all snow. Most places in the apps were less than 30". Only rather isolated locations, mainly places where lake effect/terrain enhancement occurred, got over 30. I am guessing the ratio was pretty low as well... which was good for it to stick around in March. I saw another Met post the lower the ratio the better chance to have to stick around longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 It would have been, but that storm wasn't producing that sort of thing widespread even where it was all snow. Most places in the apps were less than 30". Only rather isolated locations, mainly places where lake effect/terrain enhancement occurred, got over 30. That makes sense. Even if I stayed all snow I think about 24 inches would have been the max. I don't think the storm lasted 24 hours, however when we changed to sleet we did lose what would have been some premium rates. Never did change to zr and never made it above 30 degrees, just heavy sleet for about 6-8 hours then a bit of backlash then it shut off before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0z GFS still offshore, but developing a much stronger storm than the 18z did. Compare: 18z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2014032118&var=ABSV&lev=500mb&hour=102 vs 00z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2014032200&var=ABSV&lev=500mb&hour=096 at March 26th at 00z. Edit: Wow - those are some incredible winds in the 70-80kt range up off Massachusetts: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032200&time=INSTANT&var=GUST&hour=105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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