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Season Finale :(


Ji

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T

I apologize...I should have made it a question. Wasn't the big deal this past Monday is they stayed the course for snow for DC Metro in spite of model progressively showing less snow??

Listen.. Just roll with it... we have cashed in like 10 times this year.... It is probably gonna snow... 

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Listen.. Just roll with it... we have cashed in like 10 times this year.... It is probably gonna snow...

Perfect! I agree, was just responding to someone saying WPC was barking too early. I disagree. All good, will let it go now. Back to Coors light, Angry Orchard dry...and Pink Floyd..lol

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At 7pm, Accuweather mentions a significant chance of the Carolinas, VA and DeMarva being impacted by a major storm. A

"A more "wound up" storm will travel north along the coast while a weaker one will be further off the coast."

Does a wound up storm hug the coast or simply mean the precip field is wider?
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At 7pm, Accuweather mentions a significant chance of the Carolinas, VA and DeMarva being impacted by a major storm. A

"A more "wound up" storm will travel north along the coast while a weaker one will be further off the coast."

paging HM.

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Perfect! I agree, was just responding to someone saying WPC was barking too early. I disagree. All good, will let it go now. Back to Coors light, Angry Orchard dry...and Pink Floyd..lol

Mother do think they'll drop the bomb?

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Lol!! Great song! But I want the bomb 100 miles closer :)

alright... this is my last post.. then I will keep it to banter.. but there are three things in my life that i consider perfect.. beer, pink floyd and snow

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T

I apologize...I should have made it a question. Wasn't the big deal this past Monday they stayed the course for snow for DC Metro in spite of model progressively showing less snow??

 

The models didn't really show progressively less snow.  In the last couple of days they settled down to show DC getting about 0.7" qpf, which is probably about what they got.  There was some concern that the models weren't getting temps right, but in the end they did pretty well on those too.

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I'm just casually waiting for things to break. Didn't happen today and too far east is clearly favored for now. Until we see the trough trend neutral in time or a vigorous piece of energy hang back we're in trouble.

We still have time to keep the final nail out of the coffin but if I had to place a bet tonight it's a pretty easy decision which way to go.

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I'm just casually waiting for things to break. Didn't happen today and too far east is clearly favored for now. Until we see the trough trend neutral in time or a vigorous piece of energy hang back we're in trouble.

We still have time to keep the final nail out of the coffin but if I had to place a bet tonight it's a pretty easy decision which way to go.

It's going to break 12z tomorrow.

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Definitely could. You can't punt something like this yet. Today was discouraging in some important ways but the final solution hasn't been lasered in on. We're prob gonna see snow fall from the sky either way

 

I definitely like your chances the further east you are. I just seems like the phase is going to happen to late on this one. I think I would want to be on the Eastern Shore next week if I had to pick a spot.

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I definitely like your chances the further east you are. I just seems like the phase is going to happen to late on this one. I think I would want to be on the Eastern Shore next week if I had to pick a spot.

With the front of the trough consistently being modeled + tilt it will be tough to get enhanced precip to the br and westward. Could be an enhanced band if the trailing energy is strong as it gets vacuumed into the coastal. Sure would be nice to trend towards neutral axis as the coastal tracks towards nc. As it stands now I agree with areas east of the bay having the best chance at a good precip hit. Surface temps are trickier though.

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Had the March 13 1993 storm tracked 40 miles SE of where it did track, I probably would have reveled in a record 3 foot snow. I would have gone out and shoveled MASSIVE, EPIC amounts of snow and would have embarked on an epically loooooong jebwalk worthy of Xenophon and the Ten Thousand's march across a third of Europe.

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Had the March 13 1993 storm tracked 40 miles SE of where it did track, I probably would have reveled in a record 3 foot snow. I would have gone out and shoveled MASSIVE, EPIC amounts of snow and would have embarked on an epically loooooong jebwalk worthy of Xenophon and the Ten Thousand's march across a third of Europe.

That doesn't really make sense.  The air would've stayed colder, but precip would've been less, too.

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That doesn't really make sense.  The air would've stayed colder, but precip would've been less, too.

Well what I meant is that if the storm had tracked in such a way that I would have had more snow, as opposed to the 8 inches I did get followed by a few hours of moderate rain then back to 3 inches of snow.

 

Not that I am complaining about 11 inches of snow; I am happy about what I DID get with the storm. But, I think it would have been pretty cool to get three feet of snow with the 1993 Superstorm.

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Well what I meant is that if the storm had tracked in such a way that I would have had more snow, as opposed to the 8 inches I did get followed by a few hours of moderate rain then back to 3 inches of snow.

 

Not that I am complaining about 11 inches of snow; I am happy about what I DID get with the storm. But, I think it would have been pretty cool to get three feet of snow with the 1993 Superstorm.

 

I lived in southern Carroll County and we never went to rain... had some sleet mixed in... one of the best storms I have even seen.  I out of school for a week.

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Well what I meant is that if the storm had tracked in such a way that I would have had more snow, as opposed to the 8 inches I did get followed by a few hours of moderate rain then back to 3 inches of snow.

 

Not that I am complaining about 11 inches of snow; I am happy about what I DID get with the storm. But, I think it would have been pretty cool to get three feet of snow with the 1993 Superstorm.

It would have been, but that storm wasn't producing that sort of thing widespread even where it was all snow.  Most places in the apps were less than 30".  Only rather isolated locations, mainly places where lake effect/terrain enhancement occurred, got over 30.

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It would have been, but that storm wasn't producing that sort of thing widespread even where it was all snow.  Most places in the apps were less than 30".  Only rather isolated locations, mainly places where lake effect/terrain enhancement occurred, got over 30.

 

I am guessing the ratio was pretty low as well... which was good for it to stick around in March.  I saw another Met post the lower the ratio the better chance to have to stick around longer.

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It would have been, but that storm wasn't producing that sort of thing widespread even where it was all snow.  Most places in the apps were less than 30".  Only rather isolated locations, mainly places where lake effect/terrain enhancement occurred, got over 30.

That makes sense. Even if I stayed all snow I think about 24 inches would have been the max. I don't think the storm lasted 24 hours, however when we changed to sleet we did lose what would have been some premium rates. Never did change to zr and never made it above 30 degrees, just heavy sleet for about 6-8 hours then a bit of backlash then it shut off before midnight.

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0z GFS still offshore, but developing a much stronger storm than the 18z did.

 

Compare:

18z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2014032118&var=ABSV&lev=500mb&hour=102

vs

00z: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusupper.php?run=2014032200&var=ABSV&lev=500mb&hour=096

at March 26th at 00z.
 

Edit:

 

Wow - those are some incredible winds in the 70-80kt range up off Massachusetts: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014032200&time=INSTANT&var=GUST&hour=105

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