MDstorm Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 GFS registers it, it just needs to come south. Most systems have trended south in the mid-range this winter. Why not one more? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You've got a good start. 50/50: Yes, that's the "suggestion" of one. That's too far west to be a textbook 50/50. 50°N/50°W is just east of Newfoundland. EPO: You got it. NAO: Was hard to see in that map, but an "east-based" NAO ridge would be the warm colors extending far to the north over Iceland and east of Greenland. Basically, an East-based NAO is just a north atlantic ridge. A "west-based" NAO (the better kind for our snowstorms) has the anomalous high geopotential heights over Greenland and/or Baffin Island. Here's the NH panel for the same time period. No -nao at all really. A little ridging pushing in from the east. Very amplified pattern with the pv pressing hard and a lobe acting like a 50/50. Looks like a couple things are possible here (all speculative of course). Pac energy can eject from the big low off the coast and run up and over the wc ridge and then ride the h5 highway underneath us. Energy could also dive down the backside of the pv. Some semblance of split flow as well. Anything timed right has a chance to phase. Heights patterns would suggest it rides underneath us and could easily tap the gulf before running the coast. The look on the euro ens is definitely not pure miller b type setup. Nothing is cutting west of us. Not a chance. If anything a storm would end up too far east off the east coast. Of course the 12z run could completely change to warm rain. Just speculating on the specific setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Ah, thanks for the clarification. West-based NAOs, correct me if I'm wrong, potentially get the colder/arctic air further south because the polar jet becomes 'displayed' and moves further south? Which could then increase the potential for phasing with the southern jet if other things align? That's the basic jist. And in concert with a 50/50, it slows the flow down (hence "blocking"), which can increase phasing chances and also decrease a storm's forward motion, potentially allowing for a longer period of accumulating snow. Here's a helpful link I found: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 12z GGEM pushes it farther out to sea, but at this range it will probably be more interesting to see what the ensembles think. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like the big difference between the GGEM and GFS solutions is that around days 5-6, the GGEM swings the low south around the high pressure system near the great lakes, racing ahead of it. The low would then have to come back up the coast before the high pushes it out to sea. It would seem like something like this is what would need to happen for us to get snow. The GFS never gets the low out in front of the high. So it hangs back and ends up taking a later path, staying to the north. Just saw Bob Chill's post. I think he might have said something similar, but he said it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Here's the NH panel for the same time period. No -nao at all really. A little ridging pushing in from the east. Very amplified pattern with the pv pressing hard and a lobe acting like a 50/50. Looks like a couple things are possible here (all speculative of course). Pac energy can eject from the big low off the coast and run up and over the wc ridge and then ride the h5 highway underneath us. Energy could also dive down the backside of the pv. Some semblance of split flow as well. Anything timed right has a chance to phase. Heights patterns would suggest it rides underneath us and could easily tap the gulf before running the coast. The look on the euro ens is definitely not pure miller b type setup. Nothing is cutting west of us. Not a chance. If anything a storm would end up too far east off the east coast. Of course the 12z run could completely change to warm rain. Just speculating on the specific setup. Very helpful Bob...those scenarios make sense and I'm happy I was able to follow them while reading/understanding the map. That's the basic jist. And in concert with a 50/50, it slows the flow down (hence "blocking"), which can increase phasing chances and also decrease a storm's forward motion, potentially allowing for a longer period of accumulating snow. Here's a helpful link I found: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html Thank you! One of the better explanations of AO and NAO I've seen. And who doesn't like pretty pictures to help the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 -14 to -16 850s 12z MON March 24 in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 -14 to -16 850s 12z MON March 24 in DC It may be too cold to snow. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 GGEM had an interesting look...actually had a storm bowling just to our south and OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Looks like another large arctic blast coming in at end of EURO run... 1047 H moving into S Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Euro has nothing. h5 sucks for a big storm at least through hr 210. Maybe something later. Probably meaningless to laser in on anything at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Euro has nothing. h5 sucks for a big storm at least through hr 210. Maybe something later. Probably meaningless to laser in on anything at this lead. Quite true... but it seems like the arctic press may be crushing anything... its almost like the PV, or a piece of it, is being brought into the N Plains at 216-240 At 216, h5 heights are 504 DM just NE of International Falls MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Quite true... but it seems like the arctic press may be crushing anything... its almost like the PV, or a piece of it, is being brought into the N Plains at 216-240 Still pretty ripe towards the end of the run. It's a repeating pattern this year. PV presses down and a massive cold hp slides down east of the rockies. Precip breaks out on the boundary and there's always energy in TX for some reason. Almost every time this has happened a snowstorm comes with it for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Still pretty ripe towards the end of the run. It's a repeating pattern this year. PV presses down and a massive cold hp slides down east of the rockies. Precip breaks out on the boundary and there's always energy in TX for some reason. Almost every time this has happened a snowstorm comes with it for somebody. Def agreed that it looks nice at end of 12z EURO run... back into the icebox we go with a 1043 arctic bully cruising into the Plains... def gradient shows up in TN/NC... perhaps we can get another low/system to ride the boundary for more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 Still pretty ripe towards the end of the run. It's a repeating pattern this year. PV presses down and a massive cold hp slides down east of the rockies. Precip breaks out on the boundary and there's always energy in TX for some reason. Almost every time this has happened a snowstorm comes with it for somebody. i want a real snowstorm...12 plus inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 i want a real snowstorm...12 plus inches Sometimes I question your sanity more than my own. LOL We don't have blocking other than the pv itself. I suppose a transient ridge around greenland/hudson above the pv could show up but not much is showing it. The pattern looks very similar to what we've already seen produce. I'm sorta expecting to be tracking a legit threat later this week. For now we just wait. Looks pretty good so far. I'm kinda burned out too. It would be best for me to stay out of this thread for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Credit: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue (He posted it on his twitter page) Looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Trees and flowers will be dieing if this keeps up into April, wow. Good thing budding is a bit slower than average this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Sometimes I question your sanity more than my own. LOL We don't have blocking other than the pv itself. I suppose a transient ridge around greenland/hudson above the pv could show up but not much is showing it. The pattern looks very similar to what we've already seen produce. I'm sorta expecting to be tracking a legit threat later this week. For now we just wait. Looks pretty good so far. I'm kinda burned out too. It would be best for me to stay out of this thread for a while. Go ahead and try, lol. If there is something to track, you will be here and we love it. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Probably meaningless to laser in on anything at this lead. Given that it is late March at the end of this run, pretty much laser time. Even with anomolous cold, our window shuts the rest of the way pretty quick after this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think the April 5-10 period should be pretty good this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think the April 5-10 period should be pretty good this season In all seriousness, I actually like next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think the April 5-10 period should be pretty good this season In all seriousness, I actually like next week me too I actually like the April 7-14 period........We have had some events in that range, and this is definitely a year we could do another...I am calling for a 1-3/2-4" event for around April 10th with more in the far western burbs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think we have a solid 3-4 weeks of winter left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 me too I actually like the April 7-14 period........We have had some events in that range, and this is definitely a year we could do another...I am calling for a 1-3/2-4" event for around April 10th with more in the far western burbs... That would be perfect; exactly what I've been hoping for. Would give us over a 5-month long snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think we have a solid 3-4 weeks of winter left In all seriousness I believe winter is done up here in PA. Just so difficult to get the temperatures to cooperate with precipitation unless you live in Maryland. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think we have a solid 3-4 weeks of winter left Looks like another prolonged -epo is coming into focus. The rest of this month certainly looks to be aob. Might have a shot at some records imo. Cross polar flow with a -epo and big arctic hp seem almost likely before we finish the month. Those patterns have proven to be stubborn. Still will be progressive of course so cold for a couple days then back to near or above normal until the next shot. Each reload will carry some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The models continue to do well in picking up the magnitude of the cold anomaly in the medium range. We got down to the teens in the suburbs just last week! There's no reason to count out a cold-enough-to-snow temp shown in the medium range for the rest of the month and even into April as we continue to set record low max's at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Looks like another prolonged -epo is coming into focus. The rest of this month certainly looks to be aob. Might have a shot at some records imo. Cross polar flow with a -epo and big arctic hp seem almost likely before we finish the month. Those patterns have proven to be stubborn. Still will be progressive of course so cold for a couple days then back to near or above normal until the next shot. Each reload will carry some potential. I admit I am a bit surprised at the big arctic HP that the 12z EURO was having barge into the US Day 9 and 10... 1047 Arctic H's are more common IMHO in January and February... not in late March. We could be talking about highs around freezing and lows in the teens at the end of March if the 850s set up is right... and it doesn't look like Spring is coming anytime soon. Granted, we may see a few days of 50s to near 60 as the arctic blasts leave... but those days look few and far between as the next blast would be right on the heels of the one that is just leaving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Looks like another prolonged -epo is coming into focus. The rest of this month certainly looks to be aob. Might have a shot at some records imo. Cross polar flow with a -epo and big arctic hp seem almost likely before we finish the month. Those patterns have proven to be stubborn. Still will be progressive of course so cold for a couple days then back to near or above normal until the next shot. Each reload will carry some potential. The models continue to do well in picking up the magnitude of the cold anomaly in the medium range. We got down to the teens in the suburbs just last week! There's no reason to count out a cold-enough-to-snow temp shown in the medium range for the rest of the month and even into April as we continue to set record low max's at IAD. Catoctins above 1600' did ok on 4/23/12....I "chased" that day and there wasnt any street stickage..too light for that, but some nice grass coverage at 33-35 degrees...it can snow pretty late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Catoctins above 1600' did ok on 4/23/12....I "chased" that day and there wasnt any street stickage..too light for that, but some nice grass coverage at 33-35 degrees...it can snow pretty late Heck, even inside the beltway (I was driving in Bethesda) on 3/31/97 had light snow sticking to grass during the late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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