mdsnowlover Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It is still early but if the pattern I am seeing holds this will be a coastal storm that is going to be spot on in the mid atlantic (not too east or west as some of the models are showing at the moment). Mark judging by the snow accums in the mid atlantic states your statement looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It is still early but if the pattern I am seeing holds this will be a coastal storm that is going to be spot on in the mid atlantic (not too east or west as some of the models are showing at the moment). Mark The problem is that there none of the models are showing an inland track. tThats not to say the situation can't change over the next couple of days, but I think that the fact that the VD storm was the only coastal snowstorm all winter leads me to believe we would have to win with something flat. I hate to waste all of this cold air though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 00z Euro ensembles retreat east. Ensemble mean snow drops from 6" yesterday back to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is the second 00z run in a row that the GGEM has us getting 20mm of snow from that double low. Yesterday's 12z run was similar, but a little farther east. But both the 00z GGEM and GFS ensembles backed off. I hadn't seen the 12z GGEM ensemble meteogram from yesterday -- about 81% had snow and there were some huge hits. We're back down to about 62% on both models, with fewer big hits. More spread in the tracks on the GGEM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Nice disco from WPC: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014...NOR'EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATETUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICADURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE.THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLARFRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THENORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PARTAND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THEBACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW.SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERNRECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURINGTHE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH'S NATURALBAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTSUP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THEMID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA ANINJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDINGTHE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THEATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THISPARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENSMEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAMEPAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWNHIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMSTO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCHOF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASONHEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TONEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS INTERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACTFACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING,INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTALFLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLEWEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH ASTORM.THE WEST WILL BE A TALE OF TWO REGIONS, WITH THE SOUTHWESTCONTINUING A HIGH-N-DRY STREAK, AND THE NORTHWEST BACK IN THETHICK OF ONSHORE FLOW. UNTIL THE OVERALL PATTERN RELAXES ORRESHUFFLES, WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET IN THE WEST.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 this storm is starting to remind me of the superstorm that was supposed to bomb over the mid atlantic severel yesrs ago bringing a blizzard and it never happened!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 this storm is starting to remind me of the superstorm that was supposed to bomb over the mid atlantic severel yesrs ago bringing a blizzard and it never happened!!I like to go with seasonal trends. Has our area completely missed out on many storms this year? We had the one last week that went north and the southern storm that dumped on NC and SE VA. Anything more than those two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I like to go with seasonal trends. Has our area completely missed out on many storms this year? We had the one last week that went north and the southern storm that dumped on NC and SE VA. Anything more than those two? it was only one storm that missed.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm still totally divided on this event. The optimistic side of me likes the low deepening well south of us, no solutions are showing rainers, and mid levels are solid. Surface would be ok with good rates. The pessimistic side doesn't like having no block, models favoring an east track, onset timing, and a good possibility of phasing too late. The only place that can feel kinda confident right now is eastern mass. Particularly bos and the cape. The rest of us need the fine details to be worked out so we gotta wait till sat-sun. Maybe even Monday if were on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 And right on cue...0z Euro missing, 12z Euro better....repeat.. You didn't like the dual low Fujiwhara effect on the 00z? That'll totally happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 I have always had an uneasy feeling about this storm. The ST Paddy and the Feb 12-13 were storms I was much more confident about. This storms screams screw to me a it may bomb to late for our area. We need a strong parent low to develop in the gulf and be in the mid 990's as it approaches the NC coast. Frustrated about the 00z and 12z euro fiasco's. I am on the verge of cancelling winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I have always had an uneasy feeling about this storm. The ST Paddy and the Feb 12-13 were storms I was much more confident about. This storms screams screw to me a it may bomb to late for our area. We need a strong parent low to develop in the gulf and be in the mid 990's as it approaches the NC coast. Frustrated about the 00z and 12z euro fiasco's. I am on the verge of cancelling winter Already??? It's another 9 months away LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Things I keep reading that are incorrect: 1. The double barrel structure means the model is incorrect. 2. There's errors with the track because of convection. 3. The out to sea tracks are due to only the lack of phasing. 4. The precip will have a tight edge because strong UVM must be compensated by DVM. 5. The seasonal trends means..."fill-in" It's like these forecasters have never seen a nor'easter before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The Philadelphia-area forecasters for every event this year find a way to suggest that it will not happen. I'm not saying they are wrong in this case or right, but it's annoying and their reasoning is terrible. If convective issues were involved--if anything--would produce a further west track if removed not east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Three ways this is different than 1993: 1. Some southern energy gets left back across the SW. In 1993, it all came out and amplified significantly. 2. There wasn't a southern-stream wave ahead of it that initiates cyclogenesis. 3. The baroclinic zone was not pushed south/east from a storm system ahead of it. Three reasons why you shouldn't dismiss the storm yet: 1. Despite the weekend wave shunting the baroclinic zone for Tuesday, it acts as a temporary 50-50 low despite the lack of blocking. This thing about "no blocking...out to sea" is dumb. IF it goes out to sea, it's not because of the "lack of blocking and progressive flow." What do these people need to see on a model to not say progressive flow? A 2009-10 type of block?!? 2. The weak mid level disturbance just out ahead of the amplifying AJ/PJ phase initiates cyclogenesis on a frontal boundary pushed S/E by this weekend's wave. While this could be the make or break for our area, the details with these things can change significantly still. 3. The jet structure, AJ-PJ phase that ultimately becomes a triple phase and the extent of vorticity advection are extremely impressive. This is why every run of every model shows some kind of bomb. Amplifying comma heads are not easily modeled... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Is this at all like Boxing Day 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Three ways this is different than 1993: 1. Some southern energy gets left back across the SW. In 1993, it all came out and amplified significantly. 2. There wasn't a southern-stream wave ahead of it that initiates cyclogenesis. 3. The baroclinic zone was not pushed south/east from a storm system ahead of it. Three reasons why you shouldn't dismiss the storm yet: 1. Despite the weekend wave shunting the baroclinic zone for Tuesday, it acts as a temporary 50-50 low despite the lack of blocking. This thing about "no blocking...out to sea" is dumb. IF it goes out to sea, it's not because of the "lack of blocking and progressive flow." What do these people need to see on a model to not say progressive flow? A 2009-10 type of block?!? 2. The weak mid level disturbance just out ahead of the amplifying AJ/PJ phase initiates cyclogenesis on a frontal boundary pushed S/E by this weekend's wave. While this could be the make or break for our area, the details with these things can change significantly still. 3. The jet structure, AJ-PJ phase that ultimately becomes a triple phase and the extent of vorticity advection are extremely impressive. This is why every run of every model shows some kind of bomb. Amplifying comma heads are not easily modeled... very encouraging...thanks for your invaluable input personally, I'm feeling it, maybe not an absolute bomb imby, but still I think DCA/BWI see some accumulating snow out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Is this at all like Boxing Day 2010? you S.o.b. had to bring that one up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Thanks HM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Is this at all like Boxing Day 2010? lol... What a frustrating morning man. I can't believe how poor some of these thoughts are out there, especially to argue why it won't happen. lol All solutions are still equally likely at this stage. Some of these guys need to STFU for a change and read a paper or do a COMET module...something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 very encouraging...thanks for your invaluable input personally, I'm feeling it, maybe not an absolute bomb imby, but still I think DCA/BWI see some accumulating snow out of it Anyone certain on the track at this stage is probably an ignorant forecaster who may or may not get lucky with the outcome. There is no way to know right now because of the things I mentioned. You can't use some big time global signal to figure out exact boundary placement, strength of wave ahead of phasing trough and then the exact evolution of cyclone. Give me a break mets.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Thanks HM. Really appreciate the input. I was skeptical with yesterday's 12z euro because the amplifying comma head seemed to be tied to a secondary circ se of the main low. When I looked at h5 it seemed to be in response to h5 closing off a small contour just off of the delmarva. It seemed easy to be skeptical but it really doesn't matter much at this lead anyway. My simpleton thoughts right now are simply hoping the low is strong enough and big enough that we simply get into the deform/ccb precip as it passes and not relying on complicated phasing. It really wouldn't take much to get into the heavy precip on the back side of a rapidly strengthening low. Luckily with this storm is we aren't relying on it happening overhead. It will be pretty big even as it approaches obx. If the track is too far east so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Things I keep reading that are incorrect: 1. The double barrel structure means the model is incorrect. 2. There's errors with the track because of convection. 3. The out to sea tracks are due to only the lack of phasing. 4. The precip will have a tight edge because strong UVM must be compensated by DVM. 5. The seasonal trends means..."fill-in" It's like these forecasters have never seen a nor'easter before. Thank. You. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Thank. You. Social media always brings out the loudest and that means it can bring out some of our most ignorant degreed mets. This storm is exposing them even more than usual. I cannot believe some of the crap I've read today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I don't think it's right tossing a solution for "convective feedback" because in these late season latent heat bombs it could be real, but I think it's wise to not exactly role with that solution and just sort of realize that models may struggle with the track because of any convection facilitating low pressure development. The euro sometimes does this with intense lows only to sort of correct itself, but I also can't recall any late season winter storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Thanks HM. Really appreciate the input. I was skeptical with yesterday's 12z euro because the amplifying comma head seemed to be tied to a secondary circ se of the main low. When I looked at h5 it seemed to be in response to h5 closing off a small contour just off of the delmarva. It seemed easy to be skeptical but it really doesn't matter much at this lead anyway. No problem, Bob. I know there are some of you eager to learn and you guys are getting bombarded by stupidity (from people who should know better but don't). There's an equation called the "quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation" which basically lowers heights toward that lift area. If the "weak wave" ahead of the main phasing long wave initiates cyclogenesis and goes ape, it could lower the heights significantly to it, taking all mid-level forcing east. So in that case, the only way to get precip back west is for the long wave to amplify significantly and pull the mid-level confluence/deformation zones back west. The double-low structure is completely normal and not a sign of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I don't think it's right tossing a solution for "convective feedback" because in these late season latent heat bombs it could be real, but I think it's wise to not exactly role with that solution and just sort of realize that models may struggle with the track because of any convection facilitating low pressure development. The euro sometimes does this with intense lows only to sort of correct itself, but I also can't recall any late season winter storms like this. But that's because you're a good forecaster with good experience who should have his degree. There are a lot of people right now making definitive statements about this thing and it is mind-boggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Who said the double barrel look was wrong? huh? We see that a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 But that's because you're a good forecaster with good experience who should have his degree. There are a lot of people right now making definitive statements about this thing and it is mind-boggling. I really have not been on twitter..maybe I should check it out..lol. Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 No problem, Bob. I know there are some of you eager to learn and you guys are getting bombarded by stupidity (from people who should know better but don't). There's an equation caused the "quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation" which basically lowers heights toward that lift area. If the "weak wave" ahead of the main phasing long wave initiates cyclogenesis and goes ape, it could lower the heights significantly to it, taking all mid-level forcing east. So in that case, the only way to get precip back west is for the long wave to amplify significantly and pull the mid-level confluence/deformation zones back west. The double-low structure is completely normal and not a sign of error. Gotchya. Reading between the lines and what you posted earlier means we are stuck in a wait and see. Too many "if this then this" variables to stress or hug any solution. It's nice that there's going to be a big storm. That part is pretty cool. Haven't really had one all year. 2/12-13 was big but not the same way that this one evolves. I don't have a lot of armchair knowledge and experience with a setup like this. Definitely no where near enough to make any definitive weenie statements. I'm kinda baffled on which way to hedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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