Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 not so sure of this Bob the Euro got colder with the last storm as we approached crunch time and I wouldn't rule out a repeat wrt temps going lower with this one (assuming the storm hits us, of course) Timing of onset kinda sucks. Around noon for the front end stuff. I doubt it would be hot and heavy until the low deepens off va-oc. Ccb/deform would be the big show. Hp to the north isn't very impressive like st paddy. All speculation of course. If it does phase and captures south of our latitude then we get hit square. We can still get snow without a perfect phase but rates would be an issue until it gets dark. Honestly, I'm pretty baffled on which way to hedge right now. We haven't really had a miller A bomb this year. 2/12 was a different type of system. Hopefully this weekend we are talking about how much and not if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 not so sure of this Bob the Euro got colder with the last storm as we approached crunch time and I wouldn't rule out a repeat wrt temps going lower with this one (assuming the storm hits us, of course) doesn't have as good a cold air source from what we see now. we need rates and lots of rates. also hope it shifts a bit with timing.. which it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It is funny you can tell everyone's a little less gunshy on this one after early week. No one is all in yet but there are a lot less people dismissing it entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It is funny you can tell everyone's a little less gunshy on this one after early week. No one is all in yet but there are a lot less people dismissing it entirely. I'm more of a Can't Believe It Might Snow again this late in March variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 doesn't have as good a cold air source from what we see now. we need rates and lots of rates. also hope it shifts a bit with timing.. which is could. The only similarity to paddy is the mid levels. At least we're plenty cold there. Cold feed is kinda weak. The airmass is getting stale and not crazy cold to begin with at the surface. There will be plenty of accum sacrifice this go around if we even get hit. Everybody should accept that unless onset is delayed and it saves the dump for overnight. This is too complicated to make any type of early call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It is funny you can tell everyone's a little less gunshy on this one after early week. No one is all in yet but there are a lot less people dismissing it entirely. We could get 50% more precip and 50% less accumulation than last week. If we get 50% less precip we could get no accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It is funny you can tell everyone's a little less gunshy on this one after early week. No one is all in yet but there are a lot less people dismissing it entirely. I love snow... but it kinda sucks when it gone in two days... So I can take it or leave it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro control is awesome. Imagine if it swung west 50-100 miles Operational has more qpf for BWI than the Control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 doesn't have as good a cold air source from what we see now. we need rates and lots of rates. also hope it shifts a bit with timing.. which it could. well, that's my point...this past weekend got colder from what it showed 5 days out so I'm suggesting that if we repeat, this will get modeled colder too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 well, that's my point...this past weekend got colder from what it showed 5 days out so I'm suggesting that if we repeat, this will get modeled colder too Yeah, it did. I think some of that was track though.. the warm models had it pass fairly close on some runs. As Bob notes this air mass is a bit more stale. There's no super cold super close to tap into. On the flip side it's way more dynamic so if we get into the super thump it probably won't matter a ton other than day v night. Even there we can get snow to stick if it's hard enough. Plus we'll have picked up another 3 degrees of climo -- I know -- but still, you need more to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 NAM has brought the Sunday/Monday threat only it had further south along with all other models that use Newtonian physics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 well, that's my point...this past weekend got colder from what it showed 5 days out so I'm suggesting that if we repeat, this will get modeled colder too Just because the previous storm was modeled progressively colder doesn't mean this one will be. If we an get an early phase/capture, we have a better shot at colder 850s when it actually matters.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 All speculation of course. If it does phase and captures south of our latitude then we get hit square. We can still get snow without a perfect phase but rates would be an issue until it gets dark. It would be nice to see it slow down just a bit for temps, but I'm not sure phasing south of us is a guaranteed hit. There have been runs where it starts to bomb off of NC only to swing out to sea (e.g today's 12z GFS). Good to hear that the Euro is looking more positive, but the GFS / GGEM ensembles aren't quite there yet. Here are the snowfall probabilities from the 12z combined GFS and GGEM ensemble runs. This is just for Tuesday, so there would be likely be a bit more on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I thought people on this forum generally say sun angle isn't as much of a factor as people hype it to be..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I thought people on this forum generally say sun angle isn't as much of a factor as people hype it to be..?It matters unless you get big rates and cold temps.. Especially this time of year. The roads were mostly fine by like 10-11a St Patricks day even with temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I thought people on this forum generally say sun angle isn't as much of a factor as people hype it to be..? Temps above freezing for at least part of the storm if the euro is right with timing. It will be above freezing tues afternoon because the airmass doesn't support -25 departures. That's an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It matters unless you get big rates and cold temps.. Especially this time of year. The roads were mostly fine by like 10-11a St Patricks day even with temps below freezing. Not to mention the ground was plenty warm before it started accumulating. The ground was never frozen even once covered with 9" of snow. I know you know this but snow is an insulator that works both ways. If the ground is 40* and air drops below freezing after a coating of snow the heat actually gets trapped at ground level. Snow melts from the bottom even when the top is stable. Paved surfaces augment this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'm more of a Can't Believe It Might Snow again this late in March variety. The Luck of the Irish - St Paddys Magic has made a diehard Believer out of me. This season, Old Man Winter IS Superman. I Believe !!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I thought people on this forum generally say sun angle isn't as much of a factor as people hype it to be..? I agree it does tend to get overplayed, but that's when people make it their #1 worry in like the middle of February. March 25th is a whole new ball game, and light rates won't get the job done even if temps are 29-30 or so (and as currently progged they won't even be that cold during the day, if even below freezing...though that can obviously change). Sun angle didn't completely prevent bad road conditions on March 3rd because we had built a snow pack prior to sunrise (with sleet/ice covering underneath that really helped thanks to a period of IP) and temps were crashing through-out the day into the teens by noon. That airmass was insane for March. The more we can delay whatever snow falls (if any falls at all), the better. March 25th last year we had no problem accumulating on paved surfaces because we had absolutely perfect timing with all snow falling after sunset and mostly before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Not to mention the ground was plenty warm before it started accumulating. The ground was never frozen even once covered with 9" of snow. I know you know this but snow is an insulator that works both ways. If the ground is 40* and air drops below freezing after a coating of snow the heat actually gets trapped at ground level. Snow melts from the bottom even when the top is stable. Paved surfaces augment this. true. i was surprised with how well it survived the first day.. then it was one of the quickest disappearing big snow ever the next two days. definitely not a time of year to get hung up about it sticking around long.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 true. i was surprised with how well it survived the first day.. then it was one of the quickest disappearing big snow ever the next two days. definitely not a time of year to get hung up about it sticking around long.. It was a top and bottom devastation once air temps got going. I was shocked at the ratios. Fluffy snow disappears faster than free beer at a party. When I took an avalanche and backcountry survival training class in my CO years one of the courses was snow caves and surviving overnight. A 2 man snow cave would warm to 40F in less than 2 hours with air temps near zero . One of the keys was never digging to the ground because it would suck the heat. The walls would glaze with thin ice but never melt. Luckily I never had to build one to survive but the insulating qualities amazed me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The Euro op and EPS mean have similar timing (both way too early Tuesday). So I took at look at all the ensemble members to see if I could detect any trends on timing/strength. Most of the bombed out ensemble members were pretty fast in their timing (in line with the op). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GFS closer to the coast...still a bit far for us, but looks good for NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 968 for BOS and NE...nice. It's closer...i like the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GFS closer to the coast...still a bit far for us, but looks good for NE Game of inches. Noticeable improvement at h5. Not enough to get the job done obviously. A move towards the euro at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Game of inches. Noticeable improvement at h5. Not enough to get the job done obviously. A move towards the euro at least. Yup..H5 improving...man...NE is nuked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Im off to bed. Bob, hold down the fort. Maybe the Euro will be good, although the trend lately has been for 0z to suck and 12z to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We could get 50% more precip and 50% less accumulation than last week. If we get 50% less precip we could get no accumulation Lol!! Yogi Berra!! 90% of all putts that end up short don't go in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Wow GFS occludes as fast as the euro. It bombs all the way up to H5. But, it's a fish storm & and an eastern New England storm like most triple phasers. We're hoping for the norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That's a nice pattern off New England on the GFS - now lets pull it a little SW and I'll be happy! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_138_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=138&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140321+00+UTC&ps=area&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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