Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro ensemble is solid for DC. MDstorm It's a pretty classic I95 track tho a bit east still.. but half of it is during the day with marginal temperatures around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Weatherbell does have it BTW, was given a link.. organization isn't great there. Might be worth contacting Ryan if interested.. I think he's given free access in some cases. Ryan on this forum or at weather bell ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ryan on this forum or at weather bell ? Ryan Maue on Weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ryan Maue on Weatherbell[/ Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 "Oh, why hello there e34... You like snow too, huh?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Are people really sweating temps and timing this far out? The fact that we have a storm on every model and many are absolute bombs keeps me in. Also the fact that the whole Miller B idea was dropped in favor of Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's a pretty classic I95 track tho a bit east still.. but half of it is during the day with marginal temperatures around here. Not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 "Oh, why hello there e34... You like snow too, huh?" Not trying to be a weenie here, but exactly how much is e34? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Not trying to be a weenie here, but exactly how much is e34? low 20's" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 What do the first half of the EC ensembles show? The second half (re link by swvirginiawx) are great for us snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro control is awesome. Imagine if it swung west 50-100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 My luck...... I make a rare guest appearance on the WPC winter weather desk Sunday afternoon. Talk about timing...ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Slp track envelope on euro ens looks much better than last night. Really nice shift at this lead. I'm a little more in than I was earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The GEFS has has a pretty large spread, with 3 moderate + events. Its a little less promising then 12z, but still plenty of time to move towards the Euro of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Took a good look at all individual Euro ens members. Large number of them are bombs on the NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro ens mean precip is .75 and 6.5" snow for DCA. That's about as big a run over run jump as you see with the euro. 0z last night was less than half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro ens mean precip is .75 and 6.5" snow for DCA. That's about as big a run over run jump as you see with the euro. 0z last night was less than half of that. That is pretty impressive... now we have to hope the EURO doesn't decide to jump ship at 00z like Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At this stage I am not really paying much attention to the GFS. It has known a known bias and is awful with complicated set ups like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Even so, the GFS is still showing a significant storm, just not matching tracks and phasing times with the other models and thus missing us. Reminds me a lot of the problems it had with Sandy, caught the storm, but didn't send it the right way, but we can only wait and see if thats the same problem with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Even so, the GFS is still showing a significant storm, just not matching tracks and phasing times with the other models and thus missing us. Reminds me a lot of the problems it had with Sandy, caught the storm, but didn't send it the right way, but we can only wait and see if thats the same problem with this system. Sandy is what made me realize how far we are from having a reliable american model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 21, 2014 Author Share Posted March 21, 2014 the last 2 weeks are driving me nuts. I get excited by the 12z Euro....Go to sleep...wake up and 00z euro is a disaster. What is up with that? has Dr no moved to prime time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I disagree, I think the physics on the GFS are fantastic. I think we'll see a huge improvement once the 16km goes operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 At this stage I am not really paying much attention to the GFS. It has known a known bias and is awful with complicated set ups like this. Perhaps awful but it does not dig the northern stream sharply enough SW to pull the surface low west and phase and the trough axis is too east...not preferred but can we really pay it no attention? The whole trough would have to pull back west 100 miles..not saying it won't...just mentioning it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I disagree, I think the physics on the GFS are fantastic. I think we'll see a huge improvement once the 16km goes operational. Agree. Gfs is a solid model. If it holds the se solution and verifies nobody will acknowledge it. If the euro backs off its amped monster but still hits us and the gfs trends towards a hit nobody will acknowledge it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I disagree, I think the physics on the GFS are fantastic. I think we'll see a huge improvement once the 16km goes operational. GFS did very well with the last storm. Credit where credit is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Agree. Gfs is a solid model. If it holds the se solution and verifies nobody will acknowledge it. If the euro backs off its amped monster but still hits us and the gfs trends towards a hit nobody will acknowledge it. That's what I was trying to say..you said it better...it wouldn't take much adjustment to make this memorable but the GFS op solution seems plausible with the set up...but I like our chances despite the calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Whatever outcome gives Richmond the least amount of snow will be the one that happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Whatever outcome gives Richmond the least amount of snow will be the one that happens... I think Richmond will get snow too. This is a highly anomalous late winter. The Polar Vortex is involved and nearly anything is possible. I hope both Richmond and Washington DC get utterly destroyed by snow next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 That's what I was trying to say..you said it better...it wouldn't take much adjustment to make this memorable but the GFS op solution seems plausible with the set up...but I like our chances despite the calendar I like our chances too. Pretty sure we see snow fall and we've been crazy lucky hitting on all cylinders for over a month. It's not going to be pretty powder this time if we get a flush hit. We just need as much precip as possible. Matt said it earlier. Mod to heavy snow for a period or this storm will suck. I'm feelin a period of good rates is in the cards. Even 2-3" of paste would look pretty good if it falls fast enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I like our chances too. Pretty sure we see snow fall and we've been crazy lucky hitting on all cylinders for over a month. It's not going to be pretty powder this time if we get a flush hit. We just need as much precip as possible. Matt said it earlier. Mod to heavy snow for a period or this storm will suck. I'm feelin a period of good rates is in the cards. Even 2-3" of paste would look pretty good if it falls fast enough not so sure of this Bob the Euro got colder with the last storm as we approached crunch time and I wouldn't rule out a repeat wrt temps going lower with this one (assuming the storm hits us, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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