Scraff Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ripe for an Equitorial Breach. I think it's more a textbook equitorial reach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 not even really close there tho.. doesn't do so until SNE area. it's almost like a miller a with a miller b trying to form next to it. complicated interaction. I think the upper level trough is in the process of capturing the low, hence the goofy looking solution...whether it closes off or not, we need that to happen early enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I think the upper level trough is in the process of capturing the low, hence the goofy looking solution...whether it closes off or not, we need that to happen early enough right but I still think it would be more consolidated than it shows.. which direction I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I think the upper level trough is in the process of capturing the low, hence the goofy looking solution...whether it closes off or not, we need that to happen early enough Could it happen too early? This was from today's 12z last nights 00z GFS run, which was good wet for North Carolina and not so good for us. You can see the low being captured just off the coast near the NC / VA border: Edit: Corrected the run time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Could it happen too early? This was from last nights 00z GFS run, which was good for North Carolina and not so good for us. You can see the low being captured just off the coast near the NC / VA border: Unless I'm missing something, the upper level energy looks to be back over Indiana/Illinois..if we had a legit block, perhaps we could make that work, but the zonal regime carts it offshore before it can occlude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Good old Bastardi thinks the west movement is not done and points to Ohio trough .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This should trend west. The only thing I have written off at this point is a crippling ice storm for DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Jim Cantore, ryan maue, Bastardi all over this thing.. totally buy into the EURO/ Canadian solutions...that's interesting..ensembles coming in now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Jim Cantore, ryan maue, Bastardi all over this thing.. totally buy into the EURO/ Canadian solutions...that's interesting..ensembles coming in now.. People don't even try to hide the fact that they forecast mostly based off the Euro anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 euro ens... hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 euro ens... hehe Thanks...great info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 People don't even try to hide the fact that they forecast mostly based off the Euro anymore. Euro is for wimps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 At some point in the past few days, the GFS, GGEM, and Euro have all shown something similar to this weird setup, but none has had it consistently. And I think each of those were the snowiest runs for our region. Getting the offshore low to cut in closer to the coast has less support. The GGEM ensembles moved west from the 00z runs, but that was mostly due to consolidation around the op run. GEFS still have a greater variety in solutions. Both showing more than 60% of members with snow for us. About half of the GEFS members have a little snow for us on Sunday night as well. I took a look at the GFS ensemble members and there are 6 members with sub 990mb lows passing to our east with 1 member in the low 970s similar to the EURO 12z deterministic run. I really think the signal is there for something significant next week. My concern with accumulation is with timing. It would be awful tough to accumulate efficiently during the heart of the day if current timing holds. If trends from mid January persist though... Things would slow down, deepen and trend closer to the coast so we shall see what the next couple days bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 ens mean is a good bit west of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 ens mean is a good bit west of 0z. We do not get the euro ensembles in our AWIPS system. What is the best website to use. I know of the euro homepage but is there an easier to use page somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 ens mean is a good bit west of 0z. i was hoping you would of said 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We do not get the euro ensembles in our AWIPS system. What is the best website to use. I know of the euro homepage but is there an easier to use page somewhere? my access is kind of backdoor... so not much help. i think weatherbell might have it though not sure where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 i was hoping you would of said 12z It's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 i was hoping you would of said 12z track is similar though it's probably on the western side. it doesn't have the "dual low" look around here and is more focused on the western of the two centers in the same panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 ___ 1000mb just east of the outer banks @ 132 .1"-.25" over us.. 996 over the BM @ 138.... .25-.5" frozen over western NJ and points west.850's & thickness well offshore.... 142-992 over the BM. .1-.25" over us.. tthat was for philly... you guys having the 2m line west of you till 138. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's a suspect run. Look at the little secondary lp center se of the main low. That appears to be why we get into the deform and not because the main low is closer. euro.JPG Bob, if I'm not mistaken, the Canadian had a similar looking feature, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 KMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Looking at the individual 12z EURO members, it appears (according to WxBell) that all 51 members show at least a few flakes. There are some huge hits in there as well. I have a lot of time, so I'm going to break them down below... Less than 1": 9 members 6"+: 21 members 12"+: 12 members 18"+: 3 members There are a bunch of 2-4" and 3-5" hits in there too. *This is all according to WxBell snow maps. The above numbers are for DC* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 ___ 1000mb just east of the outer banks @ 132 .1"-.25" over us.. 996 over the BM @ 138.... .25-.5" frozen over western NJ and points west.850's & thickness well offshore.... 142-992 over the BM. .1-.25" over us.. tthat was for philly... you guys having the 2m line west of you till 138. it is a little mild.. a bit warmer than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ryan posted this publicly on Twitter, so I guess it's okay to post here. Euro ensemble members with 10:1 ratio: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ryan posted this publicly on Twitter, so I guess it's okay to post here. Euro ensemble members with 10:1 ratio: #34 looks like Ji's model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 my access is kind of backdoor... so not much help. i think weatherbell might have it though not sure where. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Thanks. Weatherbell does have it BTW, was given a link.. organization isn't great there. Might be worth contacting Ryan if interested.. I think he's given free access in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 ___ 1000mb just east of the outer banks @ 132 .1"-.25" over us.. 996 over the BM @ 138.... .25-.5" frozen over western NJ and points west.850's & thickness well offshore.... 142-992 over the BM. .1-.25" over us.. tthat was for philly... you guys having the 2m line west of you till 138. Euro ensemble is solid for DC. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 #34 looks like Ji's model of choice. Mine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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