cpasi Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How different are todays trends then yesterday trends..It seems to stay the course..minus the interesting precip shield west of the low on EURO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How different are todays trends then yesterday trends..It seems to stay the course..minus the interesting precip shield west of the low on EURO.. It's a bomb with the same track that's been showing for days for the most part. I'm hugging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Which day and what time does precip start and end on the EURO, if you don't mind me asking. Noonish tues through dawn wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43231-do-we-have-one-more-in-us/?p=2895134 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Noonish tues through dawn wed Thanks! So this is around the range when the EURO sniffed out our last threat....just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Thanks! So this is around the range when the EURO sniffed out our last threat....just sayin. It really wasn't that large of a change if any other than strength of the low and expanse of the precip shield. I would have felt better with a more westward track vs bigger precip shield. I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43231-do-we-have-one-more-in-us/?p=2895134 You need to put a warning on this link before opening weather porn. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It really wasn't that large of a change if any other than strength of the low and expanse of the precip shield. I would have felt better with a more westward track vs bigger precip shield. I'm skeptical. It's only Thursday right? Plenty of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I just compared track from last night. It was a jog NW but more meaningful north of our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 33-34 and moderate will stick during the day at sea level to grass, cartops, tables, benches etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I guess those posts were no worse than silly attempts to dismiss something that has been observed with the GFS countless times already and may have some validity. At the end of the day, the GFS' idea of too far east could absolutely be correct...in fact, I think it will be. But to make dismissive posts over something that has happened (GFS being the most progressive and too far S and E) is kinda...well...silly. Not in disagreement, I just think the notion that we "want" a given solution south/east of us is nuts. We have an uber PV few hundred miles north of the border, and a fast pacific s/w rotating around the western ridge ahead of the stj energy. This thing ain't cutting.That said, I'll hug the Euro. Would take that in a heartbeat. It looks wonky though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 33-34 and moderate will stick during the day at sea level to grass, cartops, tables, benches etc.. It's a suspect run. Look at the little secondary lp center se of the main low. That appears to be why we get into the deform and not because the main low is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Eh, the Euro kinda looks screwy to me, with that precip shield sooo far west from the low. No other model has that. Kinda thinking it's a fluke I can't see the Euro, but I've seen something similar to what you describe on other model runs due to the interaction with the northern stream low. Some of the snowiest runs for us have had the northern low pass close to us as it phases with the offshore bomb. If the two phase a little earlier, it's more of a southern VA / NC storm. You can see the difference in last night's 00z GFS and GGEM runs. The GGEM phased a little later and gave us 20mm qpf of snow. The GFS phased earlier and gave us little. Edit: Look at Bob Chill's post above mine. Something like that has shown up on other runs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 33-34 and moderate will stick during the day at sea level to grass, cartops, tables, benches etc.. Where do we get street stickage in late March? 31-32 or night? I want it all. I won't lie. Lets go out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's a suspect run. Look at the little secondary lp center se of the main low. That appears to be why we get into the deform and not because the main low is closer. euro.JPG it's in the early stages of a capture...maybe it can cut off south of 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ah, I know why the euro has that secondary circ. It's in response to the upper levels. Look at the little closed contour off the delmarva. I'm officially not buying this run as is. We're too far removed from the main center to get such heavy precip. I know the euro is plausible but take away this feature and we fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 it's in the early stages of a capture...maybe it can cut off south of 40N the way things have gone since 2/1, I wouldn't be surprised if it did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 it's in the early stages of a capture...maybe it can cut off south of 40N Good point. I'm rooting for a closer track. Otherwise it's too complicated and unsteady. If the capture happens earlier then we get destroyed of course. Hope support grows for this type of evolution. Otherwise this run is a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ah, I know why the euro has that secondary circ. It's in response to the upper levels. Look at the little closed contour off the delmarva. I'm officially not buying this run as is. We're too far removed from the main center to get such heavy precip. I know the euro is plausible but take away this feature and we fail. euroh5.JPG Bob, it wants to snow in the MA....accept it, rejoice in it, and don't question it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Where do we get street stickage in late March? 31-32 or night? I want it all. I won't lie. Lets go out with a bang. i got street stickage on 3/25/13 at 33-34 degrees....night time is the right time....of course you really need viz of 3/4 mi or less....snow tv isnt going to stick to roads even at 30-31 at 3am......but during the day, I think you would need 1/2mi or less and good sticking flakes and you will get stickage on roads at 33 or less..light snow just sucks in general...it can probably be 27 at night and -SN won't stick to roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Its gonna be tough to get this to hug the coast with the 500 pattern depicted on the Euro. Man I would love to have a big old block in place with that monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Bob, it wants to snow in the MA....accept it, rejoice in it, and don't question it It's been quite a run and we aren't grasping at straws for this one. It's just excessively complicated. I'm pretty conservative on this one. Too much can go wrong. But I'm in until I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Too early to start putting money on the Euro I think. Wait until tomorrow night at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's a suspect run. Look at the little secondary lp center se of the main low. That appears to be why we get into the deform and not because the main low is closer. euro.JPG It is a weird evolution though the low bombs faster and is a little closer. The whole low split thing is peculiar and we get most of the precip from that angle... so you'd definitely want to see more runs like that at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 the closer "low" actually forms about where you'd expect it with the big trough vort dropping in. i just don't think you'd actually get a sfc quite like that in the end. the initial parent is so strong already tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It is a weird evolution though the low bombs faster and is a little closer. The whole low split thing is peculiar and we get most of the precip from that angle... so you'd definitely want to see more runs like that at the least. we want the ULL to close off earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 we want the ULL to close off earlier... not even really close there tho.. doesn't do so until SNE area. it's almost like a miller a with a miller b trying to form next to it. complicated interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How do wet bulbs look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How do wet bulbs look? Ripe for an Equitorial Breach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 At some point in the past few days, the GFS, GGEM, and Euro have all shown something similar to this weird setup, but none has had it consistently. And I think each of those were the snowiest runs for our region. Getting the offshore low to cut in closer to the coast has less support. The GGEM ensembles moved west from the 00z runs, but that was mostly due to consolidation around the op run. GEFS still have a greater variety in solutions. Both showing more than 60% of members with snow for us. About half of the GEFS members have a little snow for us on Sunday night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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