Scraff Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Exactly, I have yet to see a favorable h5 solution for either an earlier phase, neutral/neg trough before it's too late, or even enough amplification to bring it up. OTOH- back side and digging energy looks really tasty but that will only pound fish unless we get the front of the trough or earlier phase going on. I'm less bullish than I was 3 days ago. A favorable shift would hardly shock me though... Happy hour runs will bury us. You know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 An offshore track makes sense with this 500mb pattern. Fast flow with no blocking upstream. It might come up the coast, but OTS is certainly reasonable. It is, but that has been the case all winter. We are in a groove now. We cant not score. Just a matter of when the models come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It is, but that has been the case all winter. We are in a groove now. We cant not score. Just a matter of when the models come around. Yeah, you're right. Flow has been generally fast all winter. But with each storm, we've had at least a bit of transient blocking. I think it's possible this storm comes up the coast, but an OTS solution is perfectly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We all need to remember not all major players have been properly sampled. This one is is my favorite. Look, there's no doubt that proper sampling can sometimes change an outlook. But I think this gets thrown around too much. It doesn't always have a big effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 This one is is my favorite. Look, there's no doubt that proper sampling can sometimes change an outlook. But I think this gets thrown around too much. It doesn't always have a big effect. Yeah it does get said a lot, by weenies and wishcasters and hobbyists. But it was mentioned specifically in the AFD from Mount Holly, so in this case, I would say it has some validity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yeah it does get said a lot, by weenies and wishcasters and hobbyists. But it was mentioned specifically in the AFD from Mount Holly, so in this case, I would say it has some validity Thanks for pointing that out. Didn't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We want it flat and SE of us, remember?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We want it flat and SE of us, remember?? For how long??? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 For how long??? MDstorm It was a poor attempt at sarcasm. All those "it's right where we want it" posts yesterday were silly attempts to cover the obvious fact that the synoptics are unfavorable for an early phase. I love deep phasers, but I don't see this one happening in time for us. Maybe a trip to Nantucket is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It was a poor attempt at sarcasm. All those "it's right where we want it" posts yesterday were silly attempts to cover the obvious fact that the synoptics are unfavorable for an early phase. I love deep phasers, but I don't see this one happening in time for us. Maybe a trip to Nantucket is in order. I thought as much...just wanted to be sure. Of course , I would love to bump your post later and be able to troll the hell out of it. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It was a poor attempt at sarcasm. All those "it's right where we want it" posts yesterday were silly attempts to cover the obvious fact that the synoptics are unfavorable for an early phase. I love deep phasers, but I don't see this one happening in time for us. Maybe a trip to Nantucket is in order. I guess those posts were no worse than silly attempts to dismiss something that has been observed with the GFS countless times already and may have some validity. At the end of the day, the GFS' idea of too far east could absolutely be correct...in fact, I think it will be. But to make dismissive posts over something that has happened (GFS being the most progressive and too far S and E) is kinda...well...silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Then there is the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro gets good precip in here but surface a definite issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I thin it's somewhat pattern dependent. When everything is west and the GFS is east it's probably more valid. It does still seem to be on the eastern envelop but no model screams that this is coming well west just yet. Even the good runs kind of clip us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro is a paste bomb for i95. 1 - 1.2 qpf. Sucky surface for the first half or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I thin it's somewhat pattern dependent. When everything is west and the GFS is east it's probably more valid. It does still seem to be on the eastern envelop but no model screams that this is coming well west just yet. Even the good runs kind of clip us. You're somewhat saying what I'm trying to say I guess. I'm talking about in observed cases where almost everything was west...sometimes WELL west of the GFS and it was somewhere over the Azores and the GFS corrected once we got close in. It seems like the GFS always does this with our big hits like 5-6 days prior. We need dtk in here, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ha, just saw the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro is a paste bomb for i95. 1 - 1.2 qpf. Sucky surface for the first half or so.Guess my last response was too soon. haven't seen, on mobile. Euro does sniff out the beasts early tho it also overamps and didn't do so hot on last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro is a paste bomb for i95. 1 - 1.2 qpf. Sucky surface for the first half or so. How bad can the surface be when the 850mb 0C line is like 500mi away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Verbatim the euro shows mid 30's at onset and dropping. Pretty solid hit precip wise. Wes gets a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How bad can the surface be when the 850mb 0C line is like 500mi away? It's better than I thought. 32-33 @ 8pm and below freezing shortly after. A later onset would be a destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Verbatim the euro shows mid 30's at onset and dropping. Pretty solid hit precip wide. Wes gets a foot. Eh...ok. On the crappy ewall graphics, it looks like we're at -10C at 850 before and after the storm (insert bitching about 24hr increments). Take that adiabatic to the surface and that only gets you to about freezing. And the lower 1mi is not usually adiabatic during a snow or rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 You're somewhat saying what I'm trying to say I guess. I'm talking about in observed cases where almost everything was west...sometimes WELL west of the GFS and it was somewhere over the Azores and the GFS corrected once we got close in. It seems like the GFS always does this with our big hits like 5-6 days prior. We need dtk in here, lolI think the bias idea is generally true. I dunno on this one yet I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 How bad can the surface be when the 850mb 0C line is like 500mi away? We get it good...surface is really close...everything else is money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Eh...ok. On the crappy ewall graphics, it looks like we're at -10C at 850 before and after the storm (insert bitching about 24hr increments). Take that adiabatic to the surface and that only gets you to about freezing. And the lower 1mi is not usually adiabatic during a snow or rain storm. Oops, I was talking surface. 850's are zero problem at all. -5 to -7 and dropping. It's a pretty sick paste bomb. Plenty of pretty pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Eh, the Euro kinda looks screwy to me, with that precip shield sooo far west from the low. No other model has that. Kinda thinking it's a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Euro Not for us specifically but a big hit for the northern megaplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Eh, the Euro kinda looks screwy to me, with that precip shield sooo far west from the low. No other model has that. Kinda thinking it's a fluke It's awful deep even off of obx. 974 and bombing. I would think the ccb/deform would be nasty. If it doesn't bomb like that we would get little if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Which day and what time does precip start and end on the EURO, if you don't mind me asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Wow, 968 se of cape cod. Eastern mass would cease to exist for a day or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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