yoda Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 verbatim, I'm not so certain the NAM wouldn't be snow for some of us, though I haven't checked sounding only looking at NCEP surface, 850, and thickness maps It could be snow in the far NW... but there are sneaky warm layers in there.... so sleet comes into play as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It could be snow in the far NW... but there are sneaky warm layers in there.... so sleet comes into play as well It's snow here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's snow here.... True, just checked the soundings for IAD But the mid layers are right around zero... so rimed flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's snow here.... here too per soundings you go NAM....gives me .75"+ qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 True, just checked the soundings for IAD But the mid layers are right around zero... so rimed flakes? mby the warmest it gets is -.5c and then cools after 78 hrs.; I'm sure IAD and Leesburg are colder than me too that's a nice snow storm on the NAM....I just don't believe it until it has some support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 mby the warmest it gets is -.5c and then cools after 78 hrs.; I'm sure IAD and Leesburg are colder than me too that's a nice snow storm on the NAM....I just don't believe it until it has some support Looks like the 12z GFS for now isn't biting for this weekend... prob because of the HP squashing it some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Looks like the 12z GFS for now isn't biting for this weekend... prob because of the HP squashing it some close enough at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I like the looks of the GFS at 102 hrs....don't know if it will do it, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Looks like the 12z GFS for now isn't biting for this weekend... prob because of the HP squashing it some It's got a little something for central VA. Nothing to write home about but some conversational flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Well the NAM sure is juicy at the end I thought we do not look at the NAM past hour 48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Eh, 994 mb L east of OBX ~200 miles at 132... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The weekend system has practically no support, the DGEX was showing it before, but the big boys are not impressed. Would be nice to have, but if you get that system, no phased bomb would likely be the consequence. Sure it shows 6-8 but its the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Eh, 994 mb L east of OBX ~200 miles at 132... And out to sea it goes... close but no cigar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I like the looks of the GFS at 102 hrs....don't know if it will do it, but we'll see Impressive set-up, but swing a miss on this run...too far east. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 System is so frustratingly close, but plenty of time to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Mt Holly DETAILS ARE FAR FROMBEING ETCHED IN STONE AS THE MODELS DONT EVEN AGREE ON WHICHFEATURE IS GOING TO BE TROF "THE DIGGER". THE ECMWF IS STILLEMPHASIZING A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER SIBERIA,WHILE THE GFS AND CAN GGEM ARE TYING THEIR HORSES TO THE CLOSEDLOW IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF SIBERIA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONEYOU LIKE, BOTH FEATURES ARE GOING TO MAKE A PASS CLOSE TO THENORTH POLE AND THERE ARE NOT MANY RAOB SITES THAT WAY. WE AREPROBABLY GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z RUN ON SATURDAY TOGET THESE TRIGGERS INTO THE DENSER RAOB SOUNDING NETWORKS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The weekend system has practically no support, the DGEX was showing it before, but the big boys are not impressed. Would be nice to have, but if you get that system, no phased bomb would likely be the consequence. Sure it shows 6-8 but its the NAM. Just remember how well it did on the after St Patricks day climbing the coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 considering the typical GFS bias, that's a pretty tasty map at 120 hrs. on the GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140320+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model other than JI, who wants to be the bullseye on the GFS at 120 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 System is so frustratingly close, but plenty of time to change We don't want to be bullseyed until 48 hours out or less correct? I think we're in good shape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 considering the typical GFS bias, that's a pretty tasty map at 120 hrs. on the GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140320+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model other than JI, who wants to be the bullseye on the GFS at 120 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 considering the typical GFS bias, that's a pretty tasty map at 120 hrs. on the GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_120_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140320+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model other than JI, who wants to be the bullseye on the GFS at 120 hrs? I cop to always wanting to be in the bullseye on every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Right now the GFS/Euro tracks are remarkably similar and the GFS has been steady run to run. Not sure I buy into the GFS bias thing at this point. Of course plenty of time either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 how does the GGEM look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 how does the GGEM look... Grazing teh coastline and pounds north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Ggem is a hook and ladder Sne gets hit but it maybe rain along i95. We get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Right now the GFS/Euro tracks are remarkably similar and the GFS has been steady run to run. Not sure I buy into the GFS bias thing at this point. Of course plenty of time either way. Globals and ensembles have been pretty steadfast with the too far se for a good hit solution for days now. Until I see that break I won't get excited. It "can" become a big hit of course but there is no way you can look at guidance and say it is with any confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Does anyone actually want to be bullseye right now? Let the fish have it for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Globals and ensembles have been pretty steadfast with the too far se for a good hit solution for days now. Until I see that break I won't get excited. It "can" become a big hit of course but there is no way you can look at guidance and say it is with any confidence. We all need to remember not all major players have been properly sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Globals and ensembles have been pretty steadfast with the too far se for a good hit solution for days now. Until I see that break I won't get excited. It "can" become a big hit of course but there is no way you can look at guidance and say it is with any confidence. An offshore track makes sense with this 500mb pattern. Fast flow with no blocking upstream. It might come up the coast, but OTS is certainly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 An offshore track makes sense with this 500mb pattern. Fast flow with no blocking upstream. It might come up the coast, but OTS is certainly reasonable. Exactly, I have yet to see a favorable h5 solution for either an earlier phase, neutral/neg trough before it's too late, or even enough amplification to bring it up. OTOH- back side and digging energy looks really tasty but that will only pound fish unless we get the front of the trough or earlier phase going on. I'm less bullish than I was 3 days ago. A favorable shift would hardly shock me though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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