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Season Finale :(


Ji

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verbatim, I'm not so certain the NAM wouldn't be snow for some of us, though I haven't checked sounding only looking at NCEP surface, 850, and thickness maps

 

It could be snow in the far NW... but there are sneaky warm layers in there.... so sleet comes into play as well

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True, just checked the soundings for IAD :lol::axe:

 

But the mid layers are right around zero... so rimed flakes?

mby the warmest it gets is -.5c and then cools after 78 hrs.; I'm sure IAD and Leesburg are colder than me too

that's a nice snow storm on the NAM....I just don't believe it until it has some support

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mby the warmest it gets is -.5c and then cools after 78 hrs.; I'm sure IAD and Leesburg are colder than me too

that's a nice snow storm on the NAM....I just don't believe it until it has some support

 

Looks like the 12z GFS for now isn't biting for this weekend... prob because of the HP squashing it some

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Mt Holly

DETAILS ARE FAR FROM
BEING ETCHED IN STONE AS THE MODELS DONT EVEN AGREE ON WHICH
FEATURE IS GOING TO BE TROF "THE DIGGER". THE ECMWF IS STILL
EMPHASIZING A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER SIBERIA,
WHILE THE GFS AND CAN GGEM ARE TYING THEIR HORSES TO THE CLOSED
LOW IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF SIBERIA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE
YOU LIKE, BOTH FEATURES ARE GOING TO MAKE A PASS CLOSE TO THE
NORTH POLE AND THERE ARE NOT MANY RAOB SITES THAT WAY. WE ARE
PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z RUN ON SATURDAY TO
GET THESE TRIGGERS INTO THE DENSER RAOB SOUNDING NETWORKS

 

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The weekend system has practically no support, the DGEX was showing it before, but the big boys are not impressed. Would be nice to have, but if you get that system, no phased bomb would likely be the consequence. Sure it shows 6-8 but its the NAM.

Just remember how well it did on the after St Patricks day climbing the coast storm.  

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I cop to always wanting to be in the bullseye on every run.

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Right now the GFS/Euro tracks are remarkably similar and the GFS has been steady run to run. Not sure I buy into the GFS bias thing at this point.  Of course plenty of time either way. 

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Right now the GFS/Euro tracks are remarkably similar and the GFS has been steady run to run. Not sure I buy into the GFS bias thing at this point. Of course plenty of time either way.

Globals and ensembles have been pretty steadfast with the too far se for a good hit solution for days now. Until I see that break I won't get excited. It "can" become a big hit of course but there is no way you can look at guidance and say it is with any confidence.

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Globals and ensembles have been pretty steadfast with the too far se for a good hit solution for days now. Until I see that break I won't get excited. It "can" become a big hit of course but there is no way you can look at guidance and say it is with any confidence.

We all need to remember not all major players have been properly sampled. 

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Globals and ensembles have been pretty steadfast with the too far se for a good hit solution for days now. Until I see that break I won't get excited. It "can" become a big hit of course but there is no way you can look at guidance and say it is with any confidence.

An offshore track makes sense with this 500mb pattern.  Fast flow with no blocking upstream.  It might come up the coast, but OTS is certainly reasonable.  

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An offshore track makes sense with this 500mb pattern. Fast flow with no blocking upstream. It might come up the coast, but OTS is certainly reasonable.

Exactly, I have yet to see a favorable h5 solution for either an earlier phase, neutral/neg trough before it's too late, or even enough amplification to bring it up. OTOH- back side and digging energy looks really tasty but that will only pound fish unless we get the front of the trough or earlier phase going on. I'm less bullish than I was 3 days ago. A favorable shift would hardly shock me though...

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