Heisy Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GFS looks even better so far. shortwave is digging farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The initial southern storm might be pushed out to sea and then a new low may form, you can see the isobars bending @ 141 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I just carefully set down about a hundred blue white chips on the blackjack table in the Bob Chill Express mobile casino. I'm about to receive two blackjacks in a row. I know they are about to be dealt. We will all win incredibly BIG, everyone all up and down the East Coast. Stock up on square edged, construction-grade, Jebman-branded snow shovels. If you don't shovel snow, liberate at least five top of the line snow blowers. We will be talking about this winter for a long, long time. I'm all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's an odd evloution, I can't think of a time where an area is in good h5 difluence for 30 hours and no SLP to draw in moisture. It's like flurry-mageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Need the PAC s/w to slow down like 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's an odd evloution, I can't think of a time where an area is in good h5 difluence for 30 hours and no SLP to draw in moisture. It's like flurry-mageddon. Ian approves of the vort pass and so do I. The dig is much better than 18z. Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's all about the trend right now. Definitely worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 First southern stream shortwave just messes it up. The Northern stream digs and closes off a second h7 over the NC/SC border at 156hrs, but the first wave is already gone with the moisture and the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swvirginiawx Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Just had this pointed out to me. Compare it to 500mb at hr 132 on GFS. From February 28, 2005:http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20050228.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that one of the keys to getting a good Miller A in this setup is to transfer some of the s/w energy to the southern stream around hour 114. The 00z GFS run sets up a steeper ridge out west, which brings the s/w further south and results in a stronger southern-stream low and weaker northern-stream low. I mention this because this is something that happens within the 5 day window, so it should be one of the first pieces to be resolved. Past that, I don't have a lot of confidence in the op runs. Right now I'm just looking to see if we get a strong southern storm. Its track up the coast is still a little too far in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 GGEM has a two wave solution. Low near the coast isn't as consolidated as it could be because of the pesky ocean low, but we get some snow and it gets better as it travels NE. It's there, so that's a good thing/sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 6z GFS brings the storm on March 25th closer to the coast. It definitely looks like a Miller A at this point. it looks as if it is very close to being a significant winter storm for the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 6z GFS brings the storm on March 25th closer to the coast. It definitely looks like a Miller A at this point. it looks as if it is very close to being a significant winter storm for the mid-atlantic. Now the GFS, Euro, UKMET, and GGEM op runs all agree on a Miller A. The GGEM gives DC about 20 mm of snow verbatim. A little over half of the GGEM and GFS ensemble members show a hit, and the timing of the hits is becoming more clear -- late in the day on the 25th into the 26th. To my eyes, first part of the vort pass is looking pretty good for a southern storm. Now we just have to wait until the rest of it comes into focus to see how it affects us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 20, 2014 Author Share Posted March 20, 2014 euro looks terrible for us and its ensembles for snow hits backed off last night at least but still an eternity to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Maybe the euro is doing it's every other run thing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 euro looks terrible for us and its ensembles for snow hits backed off last night at least but still an eternity to go too many people jump when the ensembles geve a certain look over a week out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the 00z GGEM show... a blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 too many people jump when the ensembles geve a certain look over a week out!! We're not a week out. Like 5 or 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 too many people jump when the ensembles geve a certain look over a week out!! why would you seize on one op run and assume nothing is going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 No reason to even think of giving up at this point, or even be discouraged. This is what the 3/12/14 0Z run of the Euro showed for BWI on Sunday/Monday MON 00Z 17-MAR 5.2 -4.0 1017 56 92 0.00 551 537 MON 06Z 17-MAR 1.3 -6.2 1015 59 93 0.04 548 536 MON 12Z 17-MAR -2.3 -10.5 1014 55 99 0.09 542 531 MON 18Z 17-MAR -1.1 -11.9 1014 40 90 0.06 538 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We're not a week out. Like 5 or 6 days. not when it was first viewed, on second though forget it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the 00z GGEM show... a blizzard? :bag:ca can you post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 can you post it Nothing too impressive inland. After a second look, it appears only the coastal Mid-Atlantic would experience blizzard conditions. 00z GGEM is showing 30-40 knot winds in coastal NJ, DE, and MD. Unfortunately, this will all change in a few hours lol... Also, I don't know how to post photos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nothing too impressive inland. After a second look, it appears only the coastal Mid-Atlantic would experience blizzard conditions. 00z GGEM is showing 30-40 knot winds in coastal NJ, DE, and MD. Unfortunately, this will all change in a few hours lol... Also, I don't know how to post photos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 why would you seize on one op run and assume nothing is going to happen? I didn't other did!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 thanks for showing the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Well the NAM sure is juicy at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Well the NAM sure is juicy at the end if only it was a lil colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 NAM is showing a system that the Euro squashes but the 6Z GFS shows bringing light precip to us, and it's colder than the NAM NAM might just be keying on the wrong short wave to blow up like it did with the u/l low earlier this week (recall the mega precip bomb it had at the end of its run over the weekend) at this point, I don't think the NAM will beat GFS/Euro, but stranger things have happened I will say that it would probably be better if that system did not blow up if we want the Tues/Wed s/w to work for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 if only it was a lil colder... verbatim, I'm not so certain the NAM wouldn't be snow for some of us, though I haven't checked sounding only looking at NCEP surface, 850, and thickness maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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