Ji Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Or superstorm. Keep the juju going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Last storm worked when you started it and I was second post. I command Das to remove his post. merci. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 #15 looks fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 In deference to NorthArlington101, it's not wise to ignore precedence and anger the snow gods... ----------------------------------------- My ears popped just looking at the pix. <<insert euro control run disclaimers here>> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 There are an awful lot of big storms on the ensembles. Some are overhead rainers. Some out to sea. And some huge hits. Strong signal considering the lead. Good consensus on the euro ens mslp mean panels for a coastal. It's rare to see that clustering at this lead. I'm not sure I've seen it at this lead to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Lol at DAS, if this actually works we will be in total superstition mode next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 After today, I'm kinda done lol. But, then again, I can't help but hope this storm materializes. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 This is hr 216 mslp mean. It never looks this clear at d9. Usually the panels are all wishy washy with spread. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 For those wondering about mid levels...mean 850 line is near the nc/sc border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I don't know where to post this, but here it goes. What is with March storms and northern Virginia? March 6 last year was great, March 25 last year was great, March 3 this year was great, and now today. Is there a reason Virginia seems to jackpot in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 This is hr 216 mslp mean. It never looks this clear at d9. Usually the panels are all wishy washy with spread. heh ensmspl.JPG Looks like the NAO is pretty positive there? Not sure for this event, but all of our other events this winter line up nicely with brief -NAO excursions or noticeable decreases in a positive NAO at around the time of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Looks like the NAO is pretty positive there? Not sure for this event, but all of our other events this winter line up nicely with brief -NAO excursions or noticeable decreases in a positive NAO at around the time of the storm. It is positive. I think the setup is more of a byproduct with a nice -epo/pv placement/short wavelengths. Looks like good confluence. Something big "could" pop in a setup like this even if the hls aren't all that great. On an anecdotal note...it sure seems to want to line up cold presses with storms lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It is positive. I think the setup is more of a byproduct with a nice -epo/pv placement/short wavelengths. Looks like good confluence. Something big "could" pop in a setup like this even if the hls aren't all that great. On an anecdotal note...it sure seems to want to line up cold presses with storms lately. ensh5anom.JPG Eh...that's not as bad as I 1st guessed. Semblance of a 50/50, the big EPO ridge and maybe an east-based NAO there. Obviously this year we haven't really needed perfect setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Not that it matters this far out, but it currently looks like a late evening through the night kind of storm. This would definitely help with the almost-April sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 For those wondering about mid levels...mean 850 line is near the nc/sc border.... who you talkin' about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Eh...that's not as bad as I 1st guessed. Semblance of a 50/50, the big EPO ridge and maybe an east-based NAO there. Obviously this year we haven't really needed perfect setups. Yea, we've done well without classic or stable blocking all year. It's like the year of the PV or something. So late in climo the biggest hurdle is temps. At the very least, euro looks pretty cold. -6 to -10C below normal through the period on the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yea, we've done well without classic or stable blocking all year. It's like the year of the PV or something. So late in climo the biggest hurdle is temps. At the very least, euro looks pretty cold. -6 to -10C below normal through the period on the means. Celsius....wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 GEPS - the GEM ensembles are in it to.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Celsius....wow! Still not that great for daytime temps but mean panels vs what it would look like with a perfect track are very different. D9 has upstate NY and VT almost -20C below normal surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 GEFS too, a little more OTS but geez, what a signal for that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Another one??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 STRONG signal for this far out. What a flippin winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 best part of this is what I recall posting back in Novie....when we get wintry threats into mid and late March like last year, the down time between winters feels (and actually is, by almost 2 months) greatly shortened vs. our typical winters that end in early FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 1) You people are sick - I mean like seriously sick - for tracking this already 2) It's a pretty amazing signal for a coastal at this lead for the ensembles and stuff 3) I want spring to be here in full force 4) Might as well track a cold coastal if the warmth won't stay put 5) Pattern hint for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 GFS has a northern stream Miller B that passes to our north. Amout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 GFS registers it, it just needs to come south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Eh...that's not as bad as I 1st guessed. Semblance of a 50/50, the big EPO ridge and maybe an east-based NAO there. Obviously this year we haven't really needed perfect setups. One thing I've been trying to get better with is reading the 500 geopotential height maps for LR threat forecasting. Can you confirm if I'm reading this right? 50/50 low - lighter purple shade north of ME/Newfoundland? It's probably a little too north, right? EPO ridge - postive heights (bright reds, etc) over AK/Canadian border? east-based NAO - this is where I need the most help. I don't know how to look for an east or west based NAO... Thanks for the help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 One thing I've been trying to get better with is reading the 500 geopotential height maps for LR threat forecasting. Can you confirm if I'm reading this right? 50/50 low - lighter purple shade north of ME/Newfoundland? It's probably a little too north, right? EPO ridge - postive heights (bright reds, etc) over AK/Canadian border? east-based NAO - this is where I need the most help. I don't know how to look for an east or west based NAO... Thanks for the help! You've got a good start. 50/50: Yes, that's the "suggestion" of one. That's too far west to be a textbook 50/50. 50°N/50°W is just east of Newfoundland. EPO: You got it. NAO: Was hard to see in that map, but an "east-based" NAO ridge would be the warm colors extending far to the north over Iceland and east of Greenland. Basically, an East-based NAO is just a north atlantic ridge. A "west-based" NAO (the better kind for our snowstorms) has the anomalous high geopotential heights over Greenland and/or Baffin Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 GEFS too, a little more OTS but geez, what a signal for that time range. Wasn't 3/13 event (crushed NNE, +24") progged similar to this potential event at this lead by GFS and GEM? Setup wise. Looks like the NAO is pretty positive there? Not sure for this event, but all of our other events this winter line up nicely with brief -NAO excursions or noticeable decreases in a positive NAO at around the time of the storm. Given the strength of the southern stream this time of year, I feel like the lack of a legitimate -NAO gives credence to a track north of our benchmark. It's not like our recent setups had -NAO on our side, but it's like playing Russian roulette with timing especially the later into March we go. I hope I'm wrong but if I'm not I wouldn't mind one more Vermont trip this season:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You've got a good start. 50/50: Yes, that's the "suggestion" of one. That's too far west to be a textbook 50/50. 50°N/50°W is just east of Newfoundland. EPO: You got it. NAO: Was hard to see in that map, but an "east-based" NAO ridge would be the warm colors extending far to the north over Iceland and east of Greenland. Basically, an East-based NAO is just a north atlantic ridge. A "west-based" NAO (the better kind for our snowstorms) has the anomalous high geopotential heights over Greenland and/or Baffin Island. Ah, thanks for the clarification. West-based NAOs, correct me if I'm wrong, potentially get the colder/arctic air further south because the polar jet becomes 'displayed' and moves further south? Which could then increase the potential for phasing with the southern jet if other things align? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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