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Season Finale :(


Ji

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There are an awful lot of big storms on the ensembles. Some are overhead rainers. Some out to sea. And some huge hits. Strong signal considering the lead. Good consensus on the euro ens mslp mean panels for a coastal. It's rare to see that clustering at this lead. I'm not sure I've seen it at this lead to be honest. 

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This is hr 216 mslp mean. It never looks this clear at d9. Usually the panels are all wishy washy with spread. heh

 

attachicon.gifensmspl.JPG

Looks like the NAO is pretty positive there?  Not sure for this event, but all of our other events this winter line up nicely with brief -NAO excursions or noticeable decreases in a positive NAO at around the time of the storm.  

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Looks like the NAO is pretty positive there?  Not sure for this event, but all of our other events this winter line up nicely with brief -NAO excursions or noticeable decreases in a positive NAO at around the time of the storm.  

 

It is positive. I think the setup is more of a byproduct with a nice -epo/pv placement/short wavelengths. Looks like good confluence. Something big "could" pop in a setup like this even if the hls aren't all that great. On an anecdotal note...it sure seems to want to line up cold presses with storms lately. 

 

post-2035-0-27075100-1395070210_thumb.jp

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It is positive. I think the setup is more of a byproduct with a nice -epo/pv placement/short wavelengths. Looks like good confluence. Something big "could" pop in a setup like this even if the hls aren't all that great. On an anecdotal note...it sure seems to want to line up cold presses with storms lately. 

 

attachicon.gifensh5anom.JPG

Eh...that's not as bad as I 1st guessed.  Semblance of a 50/50, the big EPO ridge and maybe an east-based NAO there.  Obviously this year we haven't really needed perfect setups.  

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Eh...that's not as bad as I 1st guessed.  Semblance of a 50/50, the big EPO ridge and maybe an east-based NAO there.  Obviously this year we haven't really needed perfect setups.  

 

Yea, we've done well without classic or stable blocking all year. It's like the year of the PV or something. So late in climo the biggest hurdle is temps. At the very least, euro looks pretty cold. -6 to -10C below normal through the period on the means. 

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Yea, we've done well without classic or stable blocking all year. It's like the year of the PV or something. So late in climo the biggest hurdle is temps. At the very least, euro looks pretty cold. -6 to -10C below normal through the period on the means. 

Celsius....wow!

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best part of this is what I recall posting back in Novie....when we get wintry threats into mid and late March like last year, the down time between winters feels (and actually is, by almost 2 months) greatly shortened vs. our typical winters that end in early FEB

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1) You people are sick - I mean like seriously sick - for tracking this already

 

2) It's a pretty amazing signal for a coastal at this lead for the ensembles and stuff

 

3) I want spring to be here in full force

 

4) Might as well track a cold coastal if the warmth won't stay put

 

5) Pattern hint for next winter? :P

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Eh...that's not as bad as I 1st guessed.  Semblance of a 50/50, the big EPO ridge and maybe an east-based NAO there.  Obviously this year we haven't really needed perfect setups.  

 

One thing I've been trying to get better with is reading the 500 geopotential height maps for LR threat forecasting.  Can you confirm if I'm reading this right?  

 

50/50 low - lighter purple shade north of ME/Newfoundland?  It's probably a little too north, right?

EPO ridge - postive heights (bright reds, etc) over AK/Canadian border?

east-based NAO - this is where I need the most help.  I don't know how to look for an east or west based NAO...

 

Thanks for the help!

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One thing I've been trying to get better with is reading the 500 geopotential height maps for LR threat forecasting.  Can you confirm if I'm reading this right?  

 

50/50 low - lighter purple shade north of ME/Newfoundland?  It's probably a little too north, right?

EPO ridge - postive heights (bright reds, etc) over AK/Canadian border?

east-based NAO - this is where I need the most help.  I don't know how to look for an east or west based NAO...

 

Thanks for the help!

You've got a good start.  

 

50/50:  Yes, that's the "suggestion" of one.  That's too far west to be a textbook 50/50.  50°N/50°W is just east of Newfoundland.  

EPO:  You got it.  

NAO:  Was hard to see in that map, but an "east-based" NAO ridge would be the warm colors extending far to the north over Iceland and east of Greenland.  Basically, an East-based NAO is just a north atlantic ridge.  A "west-based" NAO (the better kind for our snowstorms) has the anomalous high geopotential heights over Greenland and/or Baffin Island.  

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GEFS too, a little more OTS but geez, what a signal for that time range.

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_36.png

Wasn't 3/13 event (crushed NNE, +24") progged similar to this potential event at this lead by GFS and GEM? Setup wise.

Looks like the NAO is pretty positive there?  Not sure for this event, but all of our other events this winter line up nicely with brief -NAO excursions or noticeable decreases in a positive NAO at around the time of the storm.

Given the strength of the southern stream this time of year, I feel like the lack of a legitimate -NAO gives credence to a track north of our benchmark. It's not like our recent setups had -NAO on our side, but it's like playing Russian roulette with timing especially the later into March we go.

I hope I'm wrong but if I'm not I wouldn't mind one more Vermont trip this season:)

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You've got a good start.  

 

50/50:  Yes, that's the "suggestion" of one.  That's too far west to be a textbook 50/50.  50°N/50°W is just east of Newfoundland.  

EPO:  You got it.  

NAO:  Was hard to see in that map, but an "east-based" NAO ridge would be the warm colors extending far to the north over Iceland and east of Greenland.  Basically, an East-based NAO is just a north atlantic ridge.  A "west-based" NAO (the better kind for our snowstorms) has the anomalous high geopotential heights over Greenland and/or Baffin Island.  

 

Ah, thanks for the clarification.  West-based NAOs, correct me if I'm wrong, potentially get the colder/arctic air further south because the polar jet becomes 'displayed' and moves further south?  Which could then increase the potential for phasing with the southern jet if other things align?

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