chris87 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The products are fine, and the minimum/most likely/maximum graphs are a good idea. However, the data being input into them have been inadequate and biased high all winter long. I don't know the background, whether they are human or computer generated. If they are SREF-related, that makes sense since the SREF snowfall amounts are awful. That is not LWX's fault. The other problem is the 10%/90% notation on the products. While seemingly unintentional, what it does is suggest a normal distribution, meaning that the maximum and minimum amounts are equally likely. For many cases this winter, that has been a terrible assumption. it also assumes that the SREF ensemble is producing a normally distributed pdf -- but i agree with you about the biased nature of the SREF in general this year -- the products are a good idea and are necessary for "risk assessment" by decision makers, maybe the solution is that those type of products don't need to be provided to a general public/collection of hobbyists to misinterpret. *but, it also highlights the inability of the NWS to provide constructive scientific communication to the general public -- as a scientist myself I find it very easy to communicate within the community but i definitely need to hone my skills with respect to communicating my science to end-users -- we seem to skip over the social element in undergrad/grad school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Perhaps someone from the Americanwx staff would like to visit this thread and explain the policy governing the hounding of meteorologists. I'm one of those that exchanged PMs with the meteorologist that oversees these new winter weather products. With this person's consent, I sent PMs to four staff members here urging the staff to update members on appropriate decorum for critiquing the profession work of meteorologists. Never heard back. I guess the staff could care less if members badger the work of meteorologists in a manner that is needlessly thoughtless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Perhaps someone from the Americanwx staff would like to visit this thread and explain the policy governing the hounding of meteorologists. I'm one of those that exchanged PMs with the meteorologist that oversees these new winter weather products. With this person's consent, I sent PMs to four staff members here urging the staff to update members on appropriate decorum for critiquing the profession work of meteorologists. Never heard back. I guess the staff could care less if members badger the work of meteorologists in a manner that is needlessly thoughtless? 1) I saw your PM and meant to get back with you, but being as though i've been working 15 hour days since the Friday before last, excuse me if I didn't put responding to your PM as a priority. I would have rather given it some thought that a terse one line response 2) I've exchanged PM's with this met in the past and will likely in the future. So you should probably stop "guessing" and just ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 Perhaps someone from the Americanwx staff would like to visit this thread and explain the policy governing the hounding of meteorologists. I'm one of those that exchanged PMs with the meteorologist that oversees these new winter weather products. With this person's consent, I sent PMs to four staff members here urging the staff to update members on appropriate decorum for critiquing the profession work of meteorologists. Never heard back. I guess the staff could care less if members badger the work of meteorologists in a manner that is needlessly thoughtless? The fabric of this community is that weenies and hobbyists and mets can interact with no real distinction....I am certainly not accusing ERS of this, but mets who have come here in the past expecting their asses to be kissed - and there have been plenty - have not found this to be a welcoming community. How I or anyone else treats other members of this community should have little to do with who they are. No distinction should be made if I am "mean" to a met or mean to a doctor or mean to a 14 year old snow lover. There is no preferential treatment here and there never will be. That isn't what this community is all about. It is an egalitarian community and that is part of what makes it great. So it isn't for everyone. Doesn't mean I shouldn't be more constructive, but nobody who is here in good faith and tries to contribute something of value and add to the community should be treated differently than everyone else. I participate in a hierarchy system at work. I have no interest in participating in such a community in my free time. If I am going to kiss someone's ass, pay me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The fabric of this community is that weenies and hobbyists and mets can interact with no real distinction....I am certainly not accusing ERS of this, but mets who have come here in the past expecting their asses to be kissed - and there have been plenty - have not found this to be a welcoming community. How I or anyone else treats other members of this community should have little to do with who they are. No distinction should be made if I am "mean" to a met or mean to a doctor or mean to a 14 year old snow lover. There is no preferential treatment here and there never will be. That isn't what this community is all about. It is an egalitarian community and that is part of what makes it great. So it isn't for everyone. Doesn't mean I shouldn't be more constructive, but nobody who is here in good faith and tries to contribute something of value and add to the community should be treated differently than everyone else. I participate in a hierarchy system at work. I have no interest in participating in such a community in my free time. If I am going to kiss someone's ass, pay me. Your knowledge and expertise are an integral cog in the wheel that turns these forums. I cannot speak for anyone but myself, but the information you share with us is invaluable. Your knowledge of the climatology of the DC area and the insight into the analogs has been and will be an important contribution to the continuing education of the average visitor/contributor (giver and taker if you will) of this blog. So please know that no one is asking you to "kiss ass". Just be a little more cordial when you kick ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 1) I saw your PM and meant to get back with you, but being as though i've been working 15 hour days since the Friday before last, excuse me if I didn't put responding to your PM as a priority. I would have rather given it some thought that a terse one line response 2) I've exchanged PM's with this met in the past and will likely in the future. So you should probably stop "guessing" and just ask. Hi Randy. Its all good, thanks. The fabric of this community is that weenies and hobbyists and mets can interact with no real distinction....I am certainly not accusing ERS of this, but mets who have come here in the past expecting their asses to be kissed - and there have been plenty - have not found this to be a welcoming community. How I or anyone else treats other members of this community should have little to do with who they are. No distinction should be made if I am "mean" to a met or mean to a doctor or mean to a 14 year old snow lover. There is no preferential treatment here and there never will be. That isn't what this community is all about. It is an egalitarian community and that is part of what makes it great. So it isn't for everyone. Doesn't mean I shouldn't be more constructive, but nobody who is here in good faith and tries to contribute something of value and add to the community should be treated differently than everyone else. I participate in a hierarchy system at work. I have no interest in participating in such a community in my free time. If I am going to kiss someone's ass, pay me. Well this'll get 'em talking at LWX. If I want to learn something from them, I'll have to go to their office; they certainly aren't coming here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 Your knowledge and expertise are an integral cog in the wheel that turns these forums. I cannot speak for anyone but myself, but the information you share with us is invaluable. Your knowledge of the climatology of the DC area and the insight into the analogs has been and will be an important contribution to the continuing education of the average visitor/contributor (giver and taker if you will) of this blog. So please know that no one is asking you to "kiss ass". Just be a little more cordial when you kick ass. Thanks, and yes...agreed on the bolded...I need to work on that....I have to apologize more than one should.....I apologized to ERS and sent him a genuine PM...hopefully he comes back...it can be rough and tumble here...but I have observed over the years that cream of the crop mets like it here, and especially like our forum...I think the overall dynamic here attracts talent the way another board might not.....Over the years people have said awful things to me and I have regrettably in return at times. Many of these people are now my friends IRL...I see them a conferences...They are my FB friends.....Sometimes me, Randy and Ian go at each other pretty hard and they are 2 of my best friends....You have to have a bit thicker skin here than in other online communities, but the level of talent here speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 Hi Randy. Its all good, thanks. Well this'll get 'em talking at LWX. If I want to learn something from them, I'll have to go to their office; they certainly aren't coming here. yes...unfortunately we are stuck with mediocre mets like Wes, HM, Coastal, ORH, MNtransplant, WXusaf, Wxman, DTK, DAS, Chris87, etc, several of whom are government mets.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Say what you will about the products, NWS nailed this storm. CWG wasn't very good but I'm sure they will still claim victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Say what you will about the products, NWS nailed this storm. CWG wasn't very good but I'm sure they will still claim victory. Yeah, LWX nailed it. Big ups to them on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SerialDerecho Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 LWX is actively putting out a product, defending it, and pimping it out on FB, that gives DC a 90% chance of getting more than 3.4"....that is preposterous and deserves to be called out as such Yea, how dare LWX issue such "preposterous" products/forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 LWX killed it. Good job guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Great job to the bashers of the NWS. You bashed what turned out to be a great forecast, drove away a red tagger and made a$$e$ out of yourselves. There's debating, disagreeing with an official forecast and then there's trashing it. Such class. These same posters are welcome to this forum, while red taggers are chased away. This isn't the first instance certain members chased members away, yet they are invincible as To disciplinary actions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Great job to the bashers of the NWS. You bashed what turned out to be a great forecast, drove away a red tagger and made a$$e$ out of yourselves. There's debating, disagreeing with an official forecast and then there's trashing it. Such class. These same posters are welcome to this forum, while red taggers are chased away. This isn't the first instance certain members chased members away, yet they are invincible as To disciplinary actions. Hopefully things have been smoothed over. It appears ers is back to posting on the site, so we didn't lose another credible poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Hopefully things have been smoothed over. It appears ers is back to posting on the site, so we didn't lose another credible poster. The fact that it got that far is enough to have those issues addressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Great job to the bashers of the NWS. You bashed what turned out to be a great forecast, drove away a red tagger and made a$$e$ out of yourselves. There's debating, disagreeing with an official forecast and then there's trashing it. Such class. These same posters are welcome to this forum, while red taggers are chased away. This isn't the first instance certain members chased members away, yet they are invincible as To disciplinary actions. he hasn't been driven away. He is still around. But thanks for popping in from philly with the thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Great job to the bashers of the NWS. You bashed what turned out to be a great forecast, drove away a red tagger and made a$$e$ out of yourselves. There's debating, disagreeing with an official forecast and then there's trashing it. Such class. These same posters are welcome to this forum, while red taggers are chased away. This isn't the first instance certain members chased members away, yet they are invincible as To disciplinary actions. Not sure why you felt the need to come into another forum and open fresh wounds on something that has been handled by the two parties involved and by staff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It's an 'NWS Product Debate' thread, not specifically tied to the confines of our imaginary MA boundary. he hasn't been driven away. He is still around. But thanks for popping in from philly with the thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yeah, LWX nailed it. Big ups to them on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Maybe not a "product" per se, but I see we might have someone that knows something in the other thread. Where the heck do they measure the snowfall at DCA? I'm not one of those that thinks that the airport has a chronic problem, having lived down near there and been screwed by various snowfalls (cough, Feb '06), but it would be interesting to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Great job to the bashers of the NWS. You bashed what turned out to be a great forecast, drove away a red tagger and made a$$e$ out of yourselves. There's debating, disagreeing with an official forecast and then there's trashing it. Such class. These same posters are welcome to this forum, while red taggers are chased away. This isn't the first instance certain members chased members away, yet they are invincible as To disciplinary actions. If you're just going to open old wounds and not contribute anything of value to our forum, then we don't need you to barge in here. Go away if you don't have anything to add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 And kudos to LWX, you guys have nailed this storm better than anyone else I know of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It's an 'NWS Product Debate' thread, not specifically tied to the confines of our imaginary MA boundary. Looking forward to you taking on tracker and fozz on this! Or will you just go after me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Not at all. I think it was a dumb idea to start this thread with all of the drama carried over. If the thread was going to be started it should have been started from scratch. Leaving all of the old crap up just invites people to come in and make more comments on it...especially since its not just MA'ers that are familiar with the way Matt communicates with people on this board. Looking forward to you taking on tracker and fozz on this! Or will you just go after me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 If you're just going to open old wounds and not contribute anything of value to our forum, then we don't need you to barge in here. Go away if you don't have anything to add. Ironically, you're doing much the same by bumping his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Ironically, you're doing much the same by bumping his post. posting a reply on the same page less than an hour later isn't "bumping" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Didn't see ERS say he was leaving until now. That's disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Didn't see ERS say he was leaving until now. That's disappointing. You didn't see my PM about it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You didn't see my PM about it? No. I didn't receive one. I see ERS is still posting this morning, which I'm glad for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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