DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I have kept quiet for 4 weeks now. So my silence is now broken. In my 14 years in this field I've never been on a forum as unprofessional as this one! So you know, several of your members on here have privately messaged me to apologize for the immature and ridiculous comments that have been posted against me. I'm a member of numerous forums even outside of my field and I have never been treated this way before. In fact before I received a red tag from Ian, every comment I made on here ranging from hello and how are you to just providing a background or a snow map was either ignored completely or made fun of with your forum code language. I have not "pimped" anything here. I see snow maps being put out everywhere on this forum and I'm not suggesting a thing. I came here from 2000 miles away to develop the products that you bash! They are in their developmental stages and we have a good start. They are not perfect and neither am I or my colleagues who are bashed on here regularly. Feedback is always good yet this is not feedback. It's harsh and immature. I came to this forum to share your passion of science and meteorology, to provide some experience and contribute, to be a hobbyist. This has been the opposite. Today I'm leaving this forum. I will no longer take part in this. Ian, please delete my profile today. Thank you. Shameful that he has made a good point here. Its fully reasonable he act like this. Bewilderling another regardless of who they are and what your intentions are is incorrect. To act that same way with someone in the professional field is downright preposterous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 I have kept quiet for 4 weeks now. So my silence is now broken. In my 14 years in this field I've never been on a forum as unprofessional as this one! So you know, several of your members on here have privately messaged me to apologize for the immature and ridiculous comments that have been posted against me. I'm a member of numerous forums even outside of my field and I have never been treated this way before. In fact before I received a red tag from Ian, every comment I made on here ranging from hello and how are you to just providing a background or a snow map was either ignored completely or made fun of with your forum code language. I have not "pimped" anything here. I see snow maps being put out everywhere on this forum and I'm not suggesting a thing. I came here from 2000 miles away to develop the products that you bash! They are in their developmental stages and we have a good start. They are not perfect and neither am I or my colleagues who are bashed on here regularly. Feedback is always good yet this is not feedback. It's harsh and immature. I came to this forum to share your passion of science and meteorology, to provide some experience and contribute, to be a hobbyist. This has been the opposite. Today I'm leaving this forum. I will no longer take part in this. Ian, please delete my profile today. Thank you. dude...I apologize if I went overboard, but grow a sack....you came in hot and heavy like a tone deaf evangelistic freight train.... anyway...stay...we need smart posters and you are one...no need to delete your account....I don't think we need to add a disclaimer every time we make a post critical of the government...some of us can get a little too testy...but chill out...we need a rep from LWX to let us know what is up...so I am asking you not leave and I pledge to try and be nicer...I appreciate someone from the local office posting here and their insight....stay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I sleep with a met Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 IMO the wrong person just did a goodbye cruel weather forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 dude...I apologize if I went overboard, but grow a sack....you came in hot and heavy like a tone deaf evangelistic freight train.... anyway...stay...we need smart posters and you are one...no need to delete your account....I don't think we need to add a disclaimer every time we make a post critical of the government...some of us can get a little too testy...but chill out...we need a rep from LWX to let us know what is up...so I am asking you not leave and I pledge to try and be nicer...I appreciate someone from the local office posting here and their insight....stay! For someone CONSTANTLY crying about givers and takers on this board, what are you when you run off red-tag posters that are more beneficial to the forum than your tantrums and spasms? Get over yourself dude. Absolutely no one thinks you are as intelligent as you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 dude...I apologize if I went overboard, but grow a sack....you came in hot and heavy like a tone deaf evangelistic freight train.... worst. apology. ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 For someone CONSTANTLY crying about givers and takers on this board, what are you when you run off red-tag posters that are more beneficial to the forum than your tantrums and spasms? Get over yourself dude. Absolutely no one thinks you are as intelligent as you do. I criticized the prodcts...not him...I think he should stay.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 worst. apology. ever. true I apologize to ers...no strings attached... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I have kept quiet for 4 weeks now. So my silence is now broken. In my 14 years in this field I've never been on a forum as unprofessional as this one! So you know, several of your members on here have privately messaged me to apologize for the immature and ridiculous comments that have been posted against me. I'm a member of numerous forums even outside of my field and I have never been treated this way before. In fact before I received a red tag from Ian, every comment I made on here ranging from hello and how are you to just providing a background or a snow map was either ignored completely or made fun of with your forum code language. I have not "pimped" anything here. I see snow maps being put out everywhere on this forum and I'm not suggesting a thing. I came here from 2000 miles away to develop the products that you bash! They are in their developmental stages and we have a good start. They are not perfect and neither am I or my colleagues who are bashed on here regularly. Feedback is always good yet this is not feedback. It's harsh and immature. I came to this forum to share your passion of science and meteorology, to provide some experience and contribute, to be a hobbyist. This has been the opposite. Today I'm leaving this forum. I will no longer take part in this. Ian, please delete my profile today. Thank you. Please re-consider. Best part of this forum is the pro mets bringing their expertise. We are all weenies at heart and sometimes it gets the best of us. I enjoy your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I sleep with a met Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So what? You want a medal because you weren't as big of a jerk as you could have been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I criticized the prodcts...not him...I think he should stay.... Your interpretation of what you did is pretty meaningless. As was your "apology." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilton Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 ers-wxman1, sheesh. You're so delicate. I haven't even seen anyone say anything about you personally. You =! NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 So what? You want a medal because you weren't as big of a jerk as you could have been? you should change your sn to "I sleep with a government met" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 and I pledge to try and be nicer... lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 lolz lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I can see the argument that the criticism was unduly harsh, but I dont agree with the idea that the product or a met posting about it should be immune from criticism, if done politely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I am thankful for so much more insight into that product. I think debating it out actually helps. It is really hard though, if you put your hard work, and passion into something and people bash it when they do not understand it. This board is sarcastic, rude, and down right childish when it comes to snow.. it reflects the weenie that makes us all love snow so much. It is a passion, so I expect it! If weeded through, and the childish immature types of reaction put aside, this is actually helpful feedback. I have been in customer service for 18 years now, and one of the biggest issues we haveis not explaining how the product works to people using it. When you build a product, you get blinders on and do not see what people see. I think this is good feedback in the midst of immature snide and rude comments. Take what you hear, filter it, and use the feedback to make it better! Also, I would be up for being a beta feedback guy from a customer service perspective.. The product has some great things to it, I think some clarity could help you a lot - you have done that in these posts. Use them for an FAQ on the site! Seriously! I learned so much from these posts. Use it to your advantage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I can see the argument that the criticism was unduly harsh, but I dont agree with the idea that the product or a met posting about it should be immune from criticism, if done politely. Nothing wrong with criticism, if it's given appropriately. When it's delivered in a puerile, churlish way, then there's everything wrong with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 dude...I apologize if I went overboard, but grow a sack....you came in hot and heavy like a tone deaf evangelistic freight train.... anyway...stay...we need smart posters and you are one...no need to delete your account....I don't think we need to add a disclaimer every time we make a post critical of the government...some of us can get a little too testy...but chill out...we need a rep from LWX to let us know what is up...so I am asking you not leave and I pledge to try and be nicer...I appreciate someone from the local office posting here and their insight....stay! Agree, worst apology in the history of apologies. All you do is bash this, bash that, because you know everything about everything, and it's not "a post" it is over and over every thread. We know, you're smarter than everyone. Except you're not. Now you've run off yet another professional with your childish tantrums, your whining, insufferable, know-it-all behavior. I gather Randy and you are buddies (you must be completely different in real life to be tolerable), but as board owner I have no idea why he doesn't take you aside and say, cut the crap. And because he doesn't, and your bombastic, grating, monumentally annoying DT-type crap flows freely, this place suffers immensely. And it will continue on until either you get it though your head that you're not omniscient or you are gone all together. And if you don't like this post, grow some balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Agree, worst apology in the history of apologies. All you do is bash this, bash that, because you know everything about everything, and it's not "a post" it is over and over every thread. We know, you're smarter than everyone. Except you're not. Now you've run off yet another professional with your childish tantrums, your whining, insufferable, know-it-all behavior. I gather Randy and you are buddies (you must be completely different in real life to be tolerable), but as board owner I have no idea why he doesn't take you aside and say, cut the crap. And because he doesn't, and your bombastic, grating, monumentally annoying DT-type crap flows freely, this place suffers immensely. And it will continue on until either you get it though your head that you're not omniscient or you are gone all together. And if you don't like this post, grow some balls. I dont mind the post...don't entirely agree or disagree.... anyway...LWX has me 6-8" now...I think I'll get less but I hope they're right http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Really a shame you guys couldn't be more civil with all the unintelligent NWS-hating pointless banter. I enjoyed reading ers-wxman's posts and his explanations of products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The products are fine, and the minimum/most likely/maximum graphs are a good idea. However, the data being input into them have been inadequate and biased high all winter long. I don't know the background, whether they are human or computer generated. If they are SREF-related, that makes sense since the SREF snowfall amounts are awful. That is not LWX's fault. The other problem is the 10%/90% notation on the products. While seemingly unintentional, what it does is suggest a normal distribution, meaning that the maximum and minimum amounts are equally likely. For many cases this winter, that has been a terrible assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 3/16 3pm - The minimum number for DCA is 2", likely is 6", and max is 11". This is 6 hours prior to the onset of snowfall. Location Min Likely Max 0" 0.1-1" 1-2" 2-4" 4-8" 8-12" 12-18" >18" Ballston, VA 2 7 11 0% 5% 4% 17% 35% 32% 7% 0% Reagan Ntl Airport, VA 2 6 11 0% 4% 4% 18% 37% 29% 8% 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 The products are fine, and the minimum/most likely/maximum graphs are a good idea. However, the data being input into them have been inadequate and biased high all winter long. I don't know the background, whether they are human or computer generated. If they are SREF-related, that makes sense since the SREF snowfall amounts are awful. That is not LWX's fault. The other problem is the 10%/90% notation on the products. While seemingly unintentional, what it does is suggest a normal distribution, meaning that the maximum and minimum amounts are equally likely. For many cases this winter, that has been a terrible assumption. ers covered it and wxman made a nice post about it The are mostly SREF based with a few other american ensemble members thrown in....they do get a human massage, but my guess is the human tweaking is probably limited....I doubt someone can take a 50% number of say 4-6" and cut it in half...not sure what the guidance is, but I doubt there can be a complete override.....so they are kind of hamstrung, and they are experimental products....next year they are going to get some euro ens members thrown in as well as maybe some others....which should smooth things out..nevertheless with auto generated snow algorithms usually running high I expect the products will still overdo snow a lot of the time...I shouldn't have laughed at some of the maps...It wasnt meant to insult anyone in particular....I do think they are somewhat off base...looks like the guidance has gotten wetter so I may end up eating some crow...I need to do a better job of criticizing constructively...I do think LWX should be more cautious of how they advertise certain products and how extensively....this kind of stuff can erode public confidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 ers covered it and wxman made a nice post about it The are mostly SREF based with a few other american ensemble members thrown in....they do get a human massage, but my guess is the human tweaking is probably limited....I doubt someone can take a 50% number of say 4-6" and cut it in half...not sure what the guidance is, but I doubt there can be a complete override.....so they are kind of hamstrung, and they are experimental products....next year they are going to get some euro ens members thrown in as well as maybe some others....which should smooth things out..nevertheless with auto generated snow algorithms usually running high I expect the products will still overdo snow a lot of the time...I shouldn't have laughed at some of the maps...It wasnt meant to insult anyone in particular....I do think they are somewhat off base...looks like the guidance has gotten wetter so I may end up eating some crow...I need to do a better job of criticizing constructively...I do think LWX should be more cautious of how they advertise certain products and how extensively....this kind of stuff can erode public confidence... Which thread was that in? I haven't been able to keep up lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 I can tell you that one of the improvements we hope to make at WPC is to limit the percent weight of the SREF members. Right now, WPC's automated PWPF product (probability of winter precipitation forecast) is a 33 multi-member ensemble, with the "mode" being the WPC winter weather forecaster's deterministic snowfall (and ice) forecast based on the preferred model blend(s) over a particular region. Now, all 21 SREF members are included, along with 7 operational runs, and 5 GEFS members. That's a 33 member system, HOWEVER, 64% of which (21/33) are based on the SREF -- 7 NMB members (which go into the NAM), 7 NMM members (GFS), and 7 EM/WRF members (RAP). The problem is, when the NCEP models, particularly the NAM and SREF, are not the preferred runs for a particular winter storm, the "spread" among the mode (which again is the winter weather desk's deterministic forecast) is going to widen toward that SREF output. What we want to do going into next season is to not make the PWPF so "SREF heavy". In doing so, we're going to incorporate some (perhaps half) of the ECMWF ensemble members. One may be asking the question right now, "how come you (WPC) haven't done that already?" Well, it's a matter of resolution. Right now, we are getting the EC members at a full degree resolution, or 111 km. That's a pretty course resolution -- the kind that will make a NW flow clipper event bleed east of the Appalachians into the DC area. Why are we getting the ECMWF members at such a low resolution currently? I think the main reason is computational -- being able to get the data and process it in our system in a timely manner. However with the new supercomputer (part of the Sandy suppliment), that's going to change, as we hope to have 0.5 degree resolution ECMWF ensemble data by next season (closer to 54.5 km). So, we are getting there folks, gradually. In the meantime, keep in mind a couple of things, at least from our (WPC's) perspective: 1) Those google-earth background probability graphics you see (i.e. our "automated" PWPF) for the time being will remain 64% SREF weighted. Translation: when the SREF is not preferred -- especially when the other operational NCEP runs are not preferred (NAM and GFS), you will get a fairly large (too large) distribution with those snowfall and ice probabilities. 2) WPC in the meantime still has the ability to manually edit the "final" 10, 40, and 70 percent probabilities for the 4, 8, and 12" snowfall probabilities, as well as for the 0.25" of ice. So, when we see such a huge disparity with the WPC's manual winter weather output vs. the automated PWPF, it is because we did not buy into the SREF output (and possibly NAM and/or GFS as well). A great example of this is with the 03/03 event: when the WPC winter weather forecaster had the highest snowfall axis along the mid Atlantic region (our area), while the SREF was pointing toward NYC and SNE. So, in this case, the automated PWPF looked AWFUL, with higher probs of 4, 6, and even 8 inches stretching from SNE all the way down into central VA. Again, we'll get there... Which thread was that in? I haven't been able to keep up lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I have kept quiet for 4 weeks now. So my silence is now broken. In my 14 years in this field I've never been on a forum as unprofessional as this one! So you know, several of your members on here have privately messaged me to apologize for the immature and ridiculous comments that have been posted against me. I'm a member of numerous forums even outside of my field and I have never been treated this way before. In fact before I received a red tag from Ian, every comment I made on here ranging from hello and how are you to just providing a background or a snow map was either ignored completely or made fun of with your forum code language. I have not "pimped" anything here. I see snow maps being put out everywhere on this forum and I'm not suggesting a thing. I came here from 2000 miles away to develop the products that you bash! They are in their developmental stages and we have a good start. They are not perfect and neither am I or my colleagues who are bashed on here regularly. Feedback is always good yet this is not feedback. It's harsh and immature. I came to this forum to share your passion of science and meteorology, to provide some experience and contribute, to be a hobbyist. This has been the opposite. Today I'm leaving this forum. I will no longer take part in this. Ian, please delete my profile today. Thank you. You should stay. There are tons of people reading and not necessarily posting. I think I speak for many people. This is a learning curve moment. Hopefully everyone will learn to be more professional in tone on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I have kept quiet for 4 weeks now. So my silence is now broken. In my 14 years in this field I've never been on a forum as unprofessional as this one! So you know, several of your members on here have privately messaged me to apologize for the immature and ridiculous comments that have been posted against me. I'm a member of numerous forums even outside of my field and I have never been treated this way before. In fact before I received a red tag from Ian, every comment I made on here ranging from hello and how are you to just providing a background or a snow map was either ignored completely or made fun of with your forum code language. I have not "pimped" anything here. I see snow maps being put out everywhere on this forum and I'm not suggesting a thing. I came here from 2000 miles away to develop the products that you bash! They are in their developmental stages and we have a good start. They are not perfect and neither am I or my colleagues who are bashed on here regularly. Feedback is always good yet this is not feedback. It's harsh and immature. I came to this forum to share your passion of science and meteorology, to provide some experience and contribute, to be a hobbyist. This has been the opposite. Today I'm leaving this forum. I will no longer take part in this. Ian, please delete my profile today. Thank you. I will always defend federal employees, and will always have a place in my heart for the NWS. I have a bunch of college friends working there, and even had my own summer stint there ages ago. That said, I haven't seen the personal bashing that you are talking about. Almost everyone around here recognizes that the LWX employees are in a tough spot because we are in one of the most important cities in the world. Of course we are going to roll our eyes at some of the severe watches/warnings that are posted, but we realize that you guys can't "miss" an event. I get frustrated that the office will correct the IAD snowfall liquid equivalent measurements, but not offer an attempt at DCA's. Does that mean that I'm bashing the personnel at the office? Not in my mind. I really wish you had started a new thread about the experimental products and explained them there. You could have received feedback by people who actually care about this stuff, and who see how it is being used in the online community. And then, whenever someone would come in an b**ch about them being "wrong", we could just dig up that thread and have a pointer. That would be more productive. Matt/zwyts is prickly, and there are a bunch of the regulars that are pretty snarky, but really we are all here because we love the weather and want to obsess over it. When somebody new chimes in, we all have our guards up because you never know when you are going to get the poster that takes up space and ruins the flow. I tend to err on the side of a slightly smaller community at the risk of alienating some posters. Should this be done in a vicious manner? Of course not. Some of the best posters here are NOAA folks. dtk is one of the most informative posters, and he's over in College Park now, I believe. Several others are likely over there also. I think an LWX contact could be beneficial for both sides, and I do encourage you to rejoin us. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 My problem isn't with LWX, it's with the wpc. 5th percentile is 4-6 inches???? wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 My problem isn't with LWX, it's with the wpc. 5th percentile is 4-6 inches???? wtf? Good f*cking grief, did you not read WxMan's very detailed explanation about this, reposted THREE POSTS above yours??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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