Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 chance that accumulation will be higher than 8", 35% , higher than 4", 70%.... And Sterling wonders why we criticize... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 The GFS sure isn't very impressive. Your forecast and the CWg one right now looks pretty good. agreed...Sterling says I have a 90% chance of 3.4"....so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I must be the only one here that totally understands the LWX maps. If you want the forecast, look at the middle "most likely" map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 chance that accumulation will be higher than 8", 35% , higher than 4", 70%.... And Sterling wonders why we criticize... I've had all I can take of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 As much as I respect LWX, something seems seriously off when their graphics are telling us that this scenario... 3:16:14 90th %.png is equally likely as this one. 3:16:14 10th %.png It is NOT equally likely. It's the goal posts!!! Max possible case, min possible case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 I've had all I can take of this! put out reasonable products then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 MY comment on the storm was not directed at the NWS forecast. They generally do a good job and I'm a fan of their work. While I favor less accumulations then they do, they could end up being right. We won't knwo for sure until tomorrow morning. Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 It is NOT equally likely. It's the goal posts!!! Max possible case, min possible case Sterling's low end goalpost is 3.4"??......and this stuff is being pimped out on facebook to the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It is NOT equally likely. It's the goal posts!!! Max possible case, min possible case I get it. It's not that hard to understand. I don't get why people are complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Is this really necessary? Wasn't this hashed out yesterday? Sterling's low end goalpost is 3.4"??......and this stuff is being pimped out on facebook to the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilton Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It is NOT equally likely. It's the goal posts!!! Max possible case, min possible case Except that's not what "10th percentile" and "90th percentile" actually mean. Maybe the maps need re-named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It is NOT equally likely. It's the goal posts!!! Max possible case, min possible case So the 10th percentile and 90th percentile of possibilities (as labeled on the bottom of the maps) aren't supposed to be considered equally (un)likely? Unless I'm totally off, the bottom map seems to be saying that DC has only a 10% chance of receiving less than 3.4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 As much as I respect LWX, something seems seriously off when their graphics are telling us that this scenario... 3:16:14 90th %.png is equally likely as this one. 3:16:14 10th %.png Those maps aren't probabilities. Based on those maps for this storm, only 10% of cases would have amounts above the 90th percentile and only 10% of cases would fall below the 10th percentile. As for the 90th percentile threshhold, it seems reasonable, especially if one uses a logarthmic distribution, as Washington has only seen two 10" or greater snowfalls after March 15, the peak being 12" on March 27-28, 1891. The forecast snowfall map can be found at: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/ One might also argue that the current snowfall graphic could be somewhat aggressive relative to climatology (but not necessarily some of the guidance), as Washington has seen only two 4" or greater snowfalls after March 15 since 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Is this really necessary? Wasn't this hashed out yesterday? as long as ers is defending these products yes....wxman was kind of enough to give a detailed explanation on these products and I appreciated it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Trolling LWX employees on a weather board seems counter-productive. I suspect if I started trashing CWG every chance I got people would come out of the woodwork to slam me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Trolling LWX employees on a weather board seems counter-productive. I suspect if I started trashing CWG every chance I got people would come out of the woodwork to slam me. we have a thread dedicated to it....and it happens all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Certain people are able to get away with anything on this board. Even if they constantly act like children. Trolling LWX employees on a weather board seems counter-productive. I suspect if I started trashing CWG every chance I got people would come out of the woodwork to slam me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I sleep with a met Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Any chance we can have a b**ch about NWS thread instead of cluttering up this thread with your personal feelings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Certain people are able to get away with anything on this board. Even if they constantly act like children. LWX is actively putting out a product, defending it, and pimping it out on FB, that gives DC a 90% chance of getting more than 3.4"....that is preposterous and deserves to be called out as such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I sleep with a met Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So why don't you go cry about it on FB and stop complaining here? Jeez man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Any chance we can have a b**ch about NWS thread instead of cluttering up this thread with your personal feelings? ers has 46 posts in this thread, representing a product that gives me a 35% chance of getting more than 8".....There are things that occur in my office that are beyond comprehension, and I am sure anyone's workplace...I wouldn't actively be running around advertising them and then getting all butthurt when people criticize.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 So why don't you go cry about it on FB and stop complaining here? Jeez man I already did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Trolling LWX employees on a weather board seems counter-productive. I suspect if I started trashing CWG every chance I got people would come out of the woodwork to slam me. I dont see it as trolling, it is ok to critical, if you are also factual, and the critique here is justified. 35% chance of more than 8 inches of snow in DC certainly leaves this product open to criticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Wow I go out for a couple hours and come back and this thread is a bloody mess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I dont see it as trolling, it is ok to critical, if you are also factual, and the critique here is justified. 35% chance of more than 8 inches of snow in DC certainly leaves this product open to criticism. The concern was logged yesterday. He doesn't control the maps and is just an employee. My guess is he'll just stop posting instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Wow I go out for a couple hours and come back and this thread is a bloody mess lol. I'm with you. What happened to model analysis? I'm here to read and continue to learn. Can we get a do over on this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 I dont see it as trolling, it is ok to critical, if you are also factual, and the critique here is justified. 35% chance of more than 8 inches of snow in DC certainly leaves this product open to criticism. I've made my point....I have way too many posts in this thread anyway, which I am sure 99% would agree.....As I have said to wxman, DTK, etc...I look forward to all the things coming down the pike...higher res GFS, ecmwf ensembles being folded into experimental products, more probability products, upgrades to NAM...I agree that NWS has done a formidable job with their models given such a deficit in resources.....If ERS is going to actively pimp a product that is heavily SREF based, and presumably the human tweaking must be measured, then he has subjected himself and his org to criticism,...I have now beaten a dead horse as I tend to do sometimes....I hope I get the 3.5" that LWX has offered as a virtual lock.....if not no big deal...they could totally verify and I could bust....and I hope I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I already did I just got the picture in your sig...lol...good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It is NOT equally likely. It's the goal posts!!! Max possible case, min possible case So which is more likely? The left goal post or right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I already did I have kept quiet for 4 weeks now. So my silence is now broken. In my 14 years in this field I've never been on a forum as unprofessional as this one! So you know, several of your members on here have privately messaged me to apologize for the immature and ridiculous comments that have been posted against me. I'm a member of numerous forums even outside of my field and I have never been treated this way before. In fact before I received a red tag from Ian, every comment I made on here ranging from hello and how are you to just providing a background or a snow map was either ignored completely or made fun of with your forum code language. I have not "pimped" anything here. I see snow maps being put out everywhere on this forum and I'm not suggesting a thing. I came here from 2000 miles away to develop the products that you bash! They are in their developmental stages and we have a good start. They are not perfect and neither am I or my colleagues who are bashed on here regularly. Feedback is always good yet this is not feedback. It's harsh and immature. I came to this forum to share your passion of science and meteorology, to provide some experience and contribute, to be a hobbyist. This has been the opposite. Today I'm leaving this forum. I will no longer take part in this. Ian, please delete my profile today. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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