Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Such modesty In DC I'm actually pretty modest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 map, it was right around midnight. that was when I finally went from car/grass to full blown stickage on streets and sidewalk. I am guessing you were not too far beyond that. From then until about 6:00 was when we got what we were going to get. Maybe someone who was up watching can shed some light. No doubt dry air took its toll in your area but perhaps you also got screwed by missing some of the better bands? It seems like your 3" is on the lower-end for the area. In fact, it's almost criminal that my area in NJ got more than you! I knew I wasn't going to do that well. Too dry to start and the heavier bands that did work their way north from DC in the evening hours dried up by the time they hit Baltimore City or so. It was snowing nicely at 5am, but by 6am it was mostly flurries. So yeah, seemed I only had a few good hours of snowfall. March doesn't seem to be very good for Mt Parkton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I definitely learned a big lesson with temps. The caa was well underway well before onset. Especially at mid levels. We didn't have the mid levels in great shape on 3/3 like we did last night. It was all surface based problems and with low dews and very efficient wetbulbing it made it easy to drop to freezing quickly. That's a lesson I won't forget. This is the big takeaway for me going forward. The warm layer was very shallow...like 975 or 950mb and below and that entire layer had a wet-bulb temperature well below freezing except for maybe right at the surface where the wet-bulb was 31-33F yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Goodbye snow! The Sun peeking through the clouds is absolutely annihilating the snow lol... Open blue sky heading my way. Still below freezing, but March doesn't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Makes sense. I'm a really good forecaster.. better than a lot of mets IMO (not to back pat lol).. but some of these things are totally lost on me. You are always good at explaining them. I do find it interesting you keep saying it was not all that much like Mar 3 and a whole lot of other people say it is. I'm tempted to lean your direction though.. You, Matt, Wes etc. are all very good. My tirade over the last few days preaching "this is not 3/3" was mainly because of the nice mix of synoptic and mesoscale things coming together for DC to ACY. I understand completely why the analogy is being made since it's another "suppressed" event with a similar gradient across PA-NJ. But in reality, this was a more concise area of forcing with a better frontogenetical response within that synoptic lift. 3/3 was leftover confluence zones with cold/dry air advection...big giant meh. And the warm air advection stuff came first, out ahead when low-levels were warmer. More meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 2pm obs. 28*, radiant sun effect 35.9. Kinda wish snow had ended around 4pm to minimize concrete and asphal melt. By about 10pm tonight I think concrete and road surfaces will be cold enough to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It had been snowing lightly for most of the day but its starting to pick up in intensity again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 This is the big takeaway for me going forward. The warm layer was very shallow...like 975 or 950mb and below and that entire layer had a wet-bulb temperature well below freezing except for maybe right at the surface where the wet-bulb was 31-33F yesterday afternoon. It was like that WAY down here.. By7 am here, our wet bulb temp except the last 1k or so was frozen. We were at 48 when rain started, snow mixed in at 42 and dropped to 35 quickly. About .05 at best was pure rain. Pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You, Matt, Wes etc. are all very good. My tirade over the last few days preaching "this is not 3/3" was mainly because of the nice mix of synoptic and mesoscale things coming together for DC to ACY. I understand completely why the analogy is being made since it's another "suppressed" event with a similar gradient across PA-NJ. But in reality, this was a more concise area of forcing with a better frontogenetical response within that synoptic lift. 3/3 was leftover confluence zones with cold/dry air advection...big giant meh. And the warm air advection stuff came first, out ahead when low-levels were warmer. More meh... One of the things that we discussed at length was how much we would lose to either rain or melt on contact. I was thinking it wouldn't start sticking in my area until 10pm. Matt was thinking DCA around 11-12. If it shook out that way the 2-4/3-6 would have been spot on for the most part. Seeing raw model output push freezing through @ 8pm just seemed so far fetched and unreachable. And even during sunday afternoon temps were in the mid 40's. We've rehashed reasons for not using raw output for surface temps a million times. And rightfully so because 9 times out of 10 it ends up slower. The whole area sticking by 8pm was pretty wild. My grass was getting covered at 7pm. Very little qpf was wasted from melt early on and not a drop of rain fell. When are you going to post about next week?? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 If there's a few things I've learned from this storm, its: Don't hate on anyone's forecast before the storm rolls through Don't tell any sarcastic jokes to a weatherman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 One of the things that we discussed at length was how much we would lose to either rain or melt on contact. I was thinking it wouldn't start sticking in my area until 10pm. Matt was thinking DCA around 11-12. If it shook out that way the 2-4/3-6 would have been spot on for the most part. Seeing raw model output push freezing through @ 8pm just seemed so far fetched and unreachable. And even during sunday afternoon temps were in the mid 40's. We've rehashed reasons for not using raw output for surface temps a million times. And rightfully so because 9 times out of 10 it ends up slower. The whole area sticking by 8pm was pretty wild. My grass was getting covered at 7pm. Very little qpf was wasted from melt early on and not a drop of rain fell. When are you going to post about next week?? LOL Very logical reasoning and you are right that it would have worked 9 times out of 10. The good news is that people prepare for 3-6" similarly to 10" I'd imagine...get the plows ready... (okay I don't know about that last part). As for next week, I have nothing of substance to add that hasn't already by you guys. If something hits me, I'll let you know. There is an obvious threat next Tues-Wed with a ridiculous cold source but a little less "west NAO action." With the kind of cold available, we will likely keep watching threats into early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Thanks HM. Your thoughts are always appreciated here. It's so hard to be bullish in our area. We had a perfectly modeled paste bomb last March at very short leads that still figured out a way to misfire. Wounds like that (among others) are still getting licked when discussing a significant march snow. Definitely not apples to apples with the setup but it seems like we have a knack for finding a way to fail more than succeed. I definitely learned a big lesson with temps. The caa was well underway well before onset. Especially at mid levels. We didn't have the mid levels in great shape on 3/3 like we did last night. It was all surface based problems and with low dews and very efficient wetbulbing it made it easy to drop to freezing quickly. That's a lesson I won't forget. The verbatim surface temps on models last March, though, were precarious all the way to the end, which they weren't for this storm. And not just temps right at the surface--- remember how people were sweating over the soundings to determine precip-types for DCA after each model run? A couple of the warmer models correctly pointed out that the precip would not be snow the whole day on 3/6/13. They were generally within range with the temps. People were correctly fretting the idea of accumulating snow at the 35 or 36 F that the Euro was showing, but a forecast had to be made.... As you've pointed out many times, it was the lack of heavy rates overnight that was the big deal. But, just in the thermals, the models were throwing plenty of caution flags that the storm might not accumulate well. The models for this storm were insistent on DC being cold enough at the surface early enough for the snow to stick not too long after the start time. It was the assumption of most that we would need to add a degree or two or three or four to the raw temps on every single model, hence needing to cut a significant chunk of the precip out as non-accumulating. I guess to me, in hindsight, there were much fewer red flags on the models with this storm than the one last March. That needed everything to go perfectly to overcome the warm temps. This one, even if it had under-performed compared to the QPF somewhat, would still have had a floor of like 3" on every model in the short term. It was the forecasters who, based on past experience of models running too cold, with good reason decided to not take the model temps verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Maybe someone who was up watching can shed some light. No doubt dry air took its toll in your area but perhaps you also got screwed by missing some of the better bands? It seems like your 3" is on the lower-end for the area. In fact, it's almost criminal that my area in NJ got more than you! She was an outlier...not sure why ..BALTIMORE COUNTY... 2 E WHITE MARSH 7.6 1000 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 E OELLA 7.5 615 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 SSE TOWSON 7.3 1055 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 NE CATONSVILLE 7.0 440 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER PHOENIX 7.0 730 AM 3/17 PUBLIC OWINGS MILLS 6.5 900 AM 3/17 PUBLIC 1 NW PERRY HALL 6.5 845 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER MIDDLE RIVER 6.4 755 AM 3/17 PUBLIC 2 ESE WHITE MARSH 6.0 700 AM 3/17 COCORAHS 1 SW TOWSON 5.9 830 AM 3/17 COCORAHS 1 W HAMPTON 5.8 842 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 SW LONG GREEN 5.6 700 AM 3/17 COCORAHS 2 NW LONG GREEN 5.5 830 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 E KINGSVILLE 5.5 700 AM 3/17 COCORAHS 4 N COCKEYSVILLE 5.5 900 AM 3/17 COCORAHS HUNT VALLEY 5.4 930 AM 3/17 PUBLIC PERRY HALL 5.3 640 AM 3/17 PUBLIC 1 NNE PERRY HALL 5.3 945 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 E PERRY HALL 5.0 725 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 WNW HEREFORD 4.3 830 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 W PARKTON 3.1 930 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Maybe someone who was up watching can shed some light. No doubt dry air took its toll in your area but perhaps you also got screwed by missing some of the better bands? It seems like your 3" is on the lower-end for the area. In fact, it's almost criminal that my area in NJ got more than you! Well I am 10 miles north of Baltimore and it did not start coming down decent until 12:45 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Well I am 10 miles north of Baltimore and it did not start coming down decent until 12:45 AM. Same here, it was around 12:30 when it really started snowing more than just flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yeah, if you step back from the QPF shifts, ALL of the models nailed the general synoptics and consistently showed the same thing for several days. I would imagine the warm-sector convection, complex 500mb trough and amount of dry air insertion from the north made the QPF much more variable run-to-run. I know I'm coming off here like this was easy...I don't mean to give that impression at all...I just want to keep hammering this notion over and over again for future snow forecasts. Great comment. The signals were there for a long duration. The guidance suite did exactly what is was supposed to do even as it shifted some here and there in response to increasingly useful inputs. A seasoned forecaster takes these shifts in stride and uses the guidance skillfully to inform a forecast. Weenies and poor/lazy forecasters live and die by each shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 She was an outlier...not sure why ..BALTIMORE COUNTY... 2 E WHITE MARSH 7.6 1000 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 E OELLA 7.5 615 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 SSE TOWSON 7.3 1055 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 NE CATONSVILLE 7.0 440 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER PHOENIX 7.0 730 AM 3/17 PUBLIC OWINGS MILLS 6.5 900 AM 3/17 PUBLIC 1 NW PERRY HALL 6.5 845 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER MIDDLE RIVER 6.4 755 AM 3/17 PUBLIC 2 ESE WHITE MARSH 6.0 700 AM 3/17 COCORAHS 1 SW TOWSON 5.9 830 AM 3/17 COCORAHS 1 W HAMPTON 5.8 842 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 SW LONG GREEN 5.6 700 AM 3/17 COCORAHS 2 NW LONG GREEN 5.5 830 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 E KINGSVILLE 5.5 700 AM 3/17 COCORAHS 4 N COCKEYSVILLE 5.5 900 AM 3/17 COCORAHS HUNT VALLEY 5.4 930 AM 3/17 PUBLIC PERRY HALL 5.3 640 AM 3/17 PUBLIC 1 NNE PERRY HALL 5.3 945 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 2 E PERRY HALL 5.0 725 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 3 WNW HEREFORD 4.3 830 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER 1 W PARKTON 3.1 930 AM 3/17 TRAINED SPOTTER thats not even my report, i never sent one in. so good to know someone else was an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 So I think we can say the gfs whooped the euro here, it was pretty consistent with higher QPF and didn't really waiver...although the euro and euro ensembles sniffed this out first GFS and NAM trumped Euro and GGEM/RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Interesting here in Richmond. We, yet again, got dry slotted during a storm, so last night we really got nothing while all of y'all cashed in. Common theme this winter! But we had some solid snow this morning that really whitened things up, and now its snowing steady again with radar showing perhaps some good snow on the way. Would love to get a pleasant surprise down here from round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 3pm Obs:28.5*, may have passed max sun as peaked at 38 and now down to 36. Snow compacted down to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Looking back on radar overnight, i never really got into good bands. so that's why I am on the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 By the way, our high was 30F at 12:05 am. It never got out of the 20s here in the daylight hours. Average high is close to 60F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 One of the things that we discussed at length was how much we would lose to either rain or melt on contact. I was thinking it wouldn't start sticking in my area until 10pm. Matt was thinking DCA around 11-12. If it shook out that way the 2-4/3-6 would have been spot on for the most part. fwiw, rates were low enough that it was pretty much snow TV up my way and points north of me until around midnight. And for my part of the forum, 2-4/3-6 was generally how it worked out (altho on the higher end). I think the thoughts on amounts based on that timeframe were dead on. What was great for people from BWI on south was all the snow that stuck well before then due to better rates... (and what was, at the same time, really frustrating for the Balt city on north crew...props to the models for pretty much nailing that - altho it didn't make it any less frustrating...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Was not expecting my 8-9" in Baltimore City. Didn't stick too much to sidewalks or roads though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 You, Matt, Wes etc. are all very good. My tirade over the last few days preaching "this is not 3/3" was mainly because of the nice mix of synoptic and mesoscale things coming together for DC to ACY. I understand completely why the analogy is being made since it's another "suppressed" event with a similar gradient across PA-NJ. But in reality, this was a more concise area of forcing with a better frontogenetical response within that synoptic lift. 3/3 was leftover confluence zones with cold/dry air advection...big giant meh. And the warm air advection stuff came first, out ahead when low-levels were warmer. More meh... We all expected the QPF, the wild card was how fast the cooling took place. We should have given more credence to the low dewpoints, they were lower than march 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Sometimes forecasts don't always work out. I enjoy reading CWG. It's a shame there's nothing like CWG in the NY Metro Area. The NYT weather coverage is not impressive to say the least. Something like CWG would add a lot of value. NWS Upton is outstanding, of course. When I was in D.C. in late 2012, one of the network affiliates did a weekday evening special on RGIII after just one season. Eli Manning has won two Super Bowls and do you know how many N.Y. TV stations have devoted weekday evening specials toward Manning? Zero. I bring this up because the media in NY and DC are totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 DCA 31 at 4pm... BWI/IAD upper 20s to around 30... DCA has a chance to stay below 32 today.... pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I was shocked that 1) it started immediately as snow at 3:15 PM yesterday, and 2) that by 4 PM or so began accumulating on grass, cars, etc. I had probably 1.5" or so on the ground by dark, and then it really started to snow and pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The euro at 12z yesterday did an excellent job..better than the 12z GFS I thought. I know the euro was sort of playing catch up, but if I had to write a forecast, I sure would have sided with the euro if I wanted snow. GFS was too bullish with the nrn extent of snow into NJ it seemed, but not too surprised since the euro and NAM had the sharp cutoff which may owe to their resolution. I know the overall mid level features were there on the models and the deformation and frontogenesis were spot on for the most part. I think the difference even within the GFS and NAM runs were how most the mid levels were. There were times where the 850-500 VV/RH progs weren't very appealing in my eyes..especially before 00z yesterday. That may have to do with any convection to the south robbing any mid level moisture and overall the 500mb s/w look.That changed yesterday as the models got bullish there. I didn't have to forecast that area this time around...just something I noticed as a casual bystander. Even the HRRR yesterday was unsure with it's progged weakening of the snow bands, but it finally got a clue by evening. However, the key as always is finding those deformation zones. Like HM said..if QPF looks light, but you have that classic 700mb low crossing near or just south (even a back bent warm front or trough axis)...you may want to act accordingly. We had the most textbook display of this here on 1/21. ).5" QPF and 18" of snow in spots. Why? because the 700mb WF was overhead and it just become a frontogenetic band of snow that dumped. If nothing else, those srn stream systems have incredible deformation zones because they are PWAT monsters. All that moisture gets squeezed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 4pm obs. 28.5, very light snow for about an hour but has ended, 35.4* on the radiant, not much melting today just settling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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