mattie g Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 8.75 inches for this storm and almost 30 inches for the year in Lewes,De. I will take that any year. Pretty incredible for the beach in mid-March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 So I think we can say the gfs whooped the euro here, it was pretty consistent with higher QPF and didn't really waiver.I think that's partly right but many smart mets and others looked at the GFS and came to a different conclusion about what would happen at the sfc than ended up happening. The euro hugging bandwagon might be a little too commonplace at this point. I know I've started to move toward believing it is as close to perfect as we can get at least in certain scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Most robins in our area don't migrate, FYI. True. They flock up in the spring, which is why it seems like they appear (i.e. migrate in) right around this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Sun came out, driveway is clear, and temps shot to 34 degrees! That sun wastes no time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think that's partly right but many smart mets and others looked at the GFS and came to a different conclusion about what would happen at the sfc than ended up happening. The euro hugging bandwagon might be a little too commonplace at this point. I know I've started to move toward believing it is as close to perfect as we can get at least in certain scenarios. And also from long range the euro and euro ensembles were the first to identify this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 And also from long range the euro and euro ensembles were the first to identify this yeah.,..It is hard to evaluate without looking at the complete body of work over the forecast period and deciding what is important or isnt..One thing I will say...The GFS was the 1st model to catch onto a nice thump of precip before midnight.....at that point in time all the other models were backloaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 yeah.,..It is hard to evaluate without looking at the complete body of work over the forecast period and deciding what is important or isnt..One thing I will say...The GFS was the 1st model to catch onto a nice thump of precip before midnight.....at that point in time all the other models were backloaded Hindsight is 20/20 of course but there were some signs that it would end up being a wetter system than we were thinking a few days out. The hp/pv setup wasn't the same strength and magnitude as the 3/3 one so there was less to overcome there. Also, more often than not this year, ss systems have ended up wetter than medium range guidance. How quickly temps got right were remarkable imo. I know models showed it and soundings backed it up but we've been down this path so many times lately and temps have always been delayed. I did get excited when it started as snow from the gate. Snow (and fluffy dendrites at that) falling into 40F bl temps is very rare. We all expected the banded nature to setup nearby or overhead. But early rain or melt on contact worries along with not knowing when and how the meso stuff would shake out made it pretty easy to expect lower accums than we got. oh, and ratios we're definitely higher than anyone expected. This storm simply hit all 8 cylinders perfectly. Making that call with every storm is bad for batting averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 What was identified early and held (say 3-4 days out at least) was strong mid-level confluence, mid-level moistening and mid-level omega (to 500mb easy). This tightening temperature gradient along the 850mb deformation zone, associated with positive frontogenesis, occurred during synoptic-scale WAA/CVA. When this happens and you are making dendrites furiously, the QPF always busts low. If model run QPF is swinging but the general synoptics remain unchanged like that, it's best to stick with the higher solutions. Both LWX and PHI did a great job while several other sources in our areas busted too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Great Storm. Ended up with about 8". I know Wxmeddler is a couple miles away and he was at 7 for his total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Hindsight is 20/20 of course but there were some signs that it would end up being a wetter system than we were thinking a few days out. The hp/pv setup wasn't the same strength and magnitude as the 3/3 one so there was less to overcome there. Also, more often than not this year, ss systems have ended up wetter than medium range guidance. How quickly temps got right were remarkable imo. I know models showed it and soundings backed it up but we've been down this path so many times lately and temps have always been delayed. I did get excited when it started as snow from the gate. Snow (and fluffy dendrites at that) falling into 40F bl temps is very rare. We all expected the banded nature to setup nearby or overhead. But early rain or melt on contact worries along with not knowing when and how the meso stuff would shake out made it pretty easy to expect lower accums than we got. oh, and ratios we're definitely higher than anyone expected. This storm simply hit all 8 cylinders perfectly. Making that call with every storm is bad for batting averages. Low-levels are sometimes given too much weight when heavy snow banding along a deformation zone is going to pound your area. If it had been any other situation, the temps would have taken their toll for sure. But mesoscale, heavy snow banding is a whole nother' animal that seems to always surprise complacent forecasters. Models overestimate sublimation too in these situations and kill more precip that way than what actually happens. You can't stop a furious dendrite machine if the mid levels are moist enough with enough lift. I got nearly 5" of snow with a dewpoint starting at 5, lol. This was nothing like 3/3 and that was identified, along with the proper factors for banding at a proper time of day, well in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 What was identified early and held (say 3-4 days out at least) was strong mid-level confluence, mid-level moistening and mid-level omega (to 500mb easy). This tightening temperature gradient along the 850mb deformation zone, associated with positive frontogenesis, occurred during synoptic-scale WAA/CVA. When this happens and you are making dendrites furiously, the QPF always busts low. If model run QPF is swinging but the general synoptics remain unchanged like that, it's best to stick with the higher solutions. Both LWX and PHI did a great job while several other sources in our areas busted too low. agreed and great job by you and others..I think the number one biggest concern for inside the beltway was BL temps and particularly surface temps. and secondarily antecedent conditions and climo...47 Sunday afternoon is dangerous territory on March 16th for lower lying areas....and given the consistent model bias of being too cold, and even MOS running too cold there were legit worries.....By 24 hours out I felt confident that QPF would be fine...I wasn't worried...what I was worried about was punting 50% of liquid to rain, rain/snow, non-accumulating snow...I busted horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 With the GFS scoring a win, it'll make the model watching all the more nerve-wracking next week if that storm keeps appearing on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 9.7 I'm calling it. Great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Great job by the LWX and WPC. I certainly made a crappy forecast. Gave too much wieght to what happened last March and March 3rd and not enough weight to the low wet bulb temps. Plus the 500 didn't look that great though the 850 did. I donly ended up with 4.5 or so Lusby to my south had 8 inches and DC and points north got hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Low-levels are sometimes given too much weight when heavy snow banding along a deformation zone is going to pound your area. If it had been any other situation, the temps would have taken their toll for sure. But mesoscale, heavy snow banding is a whole nother' animal that seems to always surprise complacent forecasters. Models overestimate sublimation too in these situations and kill more precip that way than what actually happens. You can't stop a furious dendrite machine if the mid levels are moist enough with enough lift. I got nearly 5" of snow with a dewpoint starting at 5, lol. This was nothing like 3/3 and that was identified, along with the proper factors for banding at a proper time of day, well in advance. Thanks HM. Your thoughts are always appreciated here. It's so hard to be bullish in our area. We had a perfectly modeled paste bomb last March at very short leads that still figured out a way to misfire. Wounds like that (among others) are still getting licked when discussing a significant march snow. Definitely not apples to apples with the setup but it seems like we have a knack for finding a way to fail more than succeed. I definitely learned a big lesson with temps. The caa was well underway well before onset. Especially at mid levels. We didn't have the mid levels in great shape on 3/3 like we did last night. It was all surface based problems and with low dews and very efficient wetbulbing it made it easy to drop to freezing quickly. That's a lesson I won't forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 agreed and great job by you and others..I think the number one biggest concern for inside the beltway was BL temps and particularly surface temps. and secondarily antecedent conditions and climo...47 Sunday afternoon is dangerous territory on March 16th for lower lying areas....and given the consistent model bias of being too cold, and even MOS running too cold there were legit worries.....By 24 hours out I felt confident that QPF would be fine...I wasn't worried...what I was worried about was punting 50% of liquid to rain, rain/snow, non-accumulating snow...I busted horribly. I saw you confidently rejecting low QPF solutions in advance of the storm like you had seen the future! Excellent job and way to recognize a good QPF situation when you see it. There were forecasters up my way not worried about temperatures as much as the extreme low-level dry air. The sharp gradient was modeled well but a lot of people busted too low, except for the NWS. They did a great job around us and I'm glad they bumped things yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Bhu0imoCQAE30Dd.png To be fair... this map is updated continuously. I was in 2-4 last night at 12:30 AM and now I am in the 8-10 and only got 6.5... of course you can be right if you keep fine tuning your maps during the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 What was identified early and held (say 3-4 days out at least) was strong mid-level confluence, mid-level moistening and mid-level omega (to 500mb easy). This tightening temperature gradient along the 850mb deformation zone, associated with positive frontogenesis, occurred during synoptic-scale WAA/CVA. When this happens and you are making dendrites furiously, the QPF always busts low. If model run QPF is swinging but the general synoptics remain unchanged like that, it's best to stick with the higher solutions. Both LWX and PHI did a great job while several other sources in our areas busted too low. That was one thing I noticed the other day.. especially the night before the GFS really locked in with QPF which people overfocus on here and elsewhere. The storm was basically the same on many models for many runs other than qpf and sfc temps. I didn't necessarily resolve it right though I wondered why everyone was saying the GFS sucked when it looked almost exactly like the Euro except for the precip pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I saw you confidently rejecting low QPF solutions in advance of the storm like you had seen the future! Excellent job and way to recognize a good QPF situation when you see it. There were forecasters up my way not worried about temperatures as much as the extreme low-level dry air. The sharp gradient was modeled well but a lot of people busted too low, except for the NWS. They did a great job around us and I'm glad they bumped things yesterday. the dry air was killer at my house last night -- no idea when the snow actually started to accumulate, but no doubt that is what dug into my overall total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 To be fair... this map is updated continuously. I was in 2-4 last night at 12:30 AM and now I am in the 8-10 and only got 6.5... of course you can be right if you keep fine tuning your maps during the storm That was for March 3 which LWX went "insanely" high on compared to pretty much everyone else. I was more or less making a point that everyone busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Thanks HM. Your thoughts are always appreciated here. It's so hard to be bullish in our area. We had a perfectly modeled paste bomb last March at very short leads that still figured out a way to misfire. Wounds like that (among others) are still getting licked when discussing a significant march snow. Definitely not apples to apples with the setup but it seems like we have a knack for finding a way to fail more than succeed. I definitely learned a big lesson with temps. The caa was well underway well before onset. Especially at mid levels. We didn't have the mid levels in great shape on 3/3 like we did last night. It was all surface based problems and with low dews and very efficient wetbulbing it made it easy to drop to freezing quickly. That's a lesson I won't forget. Your area is especially difficult and I don't envy any of you guys who forecast for DC. This is revenge for last year, definitely! When a system is developing and the gradient is tightening, you tend to get your most solid shield, best snow bands etc. Last year, the system went vertically stacked, developed instability from cool air aloft and ruined cold sector precip through convective processes. That was a mistake we just didn't see until it was too late. You don't get any better than last night for a setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 That was one thing I noticed the other day.. especially the night before the GFS really locked in with QPF which people overfocus on here and elsewhere. The storm was basically the same on many models for many runs other than qpf and sfc temps. I didn't necessarily resolve it right though I wondered why everyone was saying the GFS sucked when it looked almost exactly like the Euro except for the precip pattern. Yeah, if you step back from the QPF shifts, ALL of the models nailed the general synoptics and consistently showed the same thing for several days. I would imagine the warm-sector convection, complex 500mb trough and amount of dry air insertion from the north made the QPF much more variable run-to-run. I know I'm coming off here like this was easy...I don't mean to give that impression at all...I just want to keep hammering this notion over and over again for future snow forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 That was for March 3 which LWX went "insanely" high on compared to pretty much everyone else. I was more or less making a point that everyone busts. Oh sorry I did not pick up that it was 3/3 storm... but they do update it continuously. I know people like it... but I think it is worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 the dry air was killer at my house last night -- no idea when the snow actually started to accumulate, but no doubt that is what dug into my overall total It took forever up our way, didn't it?! I will admit I was getting worried when midnight came along and I had no snow. But a little later, the mid-levels finally did their dirty work. This turned out to be pretty okay further north; in fact, Philadelphia is at 4.5" so far which makes this the second snowiest winter of all time!! We just beat 1996...unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 It took forever up our way, didn't it?! I will admit I was getting worried when midnight came along and I had no snow. But a little later, the mid-levels finally did their dirty work. This turned out to be pretty okay further north; in fact, Philadelphia is at 4.5" so far which makes this the second snowiest winter of all time!! We just beat 1996...unbelievable. i have no idea when it started accumulating at my house, i crashed around 10pm or so. but it must have taken a while for the dry air to erode since i only picked up 3" no complaints of course, its been a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Yeah, if you step back from the QPF shifts, ALL of the models nailed the general synoptics and consistently showed the same thing for several days. I would imagine the warm-sector convection, complex 500mb trough and amount of dry air insertion from the north made the QPF much more variable run-to-run. I know I'm coming off here like this was easy...I don't mean to give that impression at all...I just want to keep hammering this notion over and over again for future snow forecasts. Makes sense. I'm a really good forecaster.. better than a lot of mets IMO (not to back pat lol).. but some of these things are totally lost on me. You are always good at explaining them. I do find it interesting you keep saying it was not all that much like Mar 3 and a whole lot of other people say it is. I'm tempted to lean your direction though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 i have no idea when it started accumulating at my house, i crashed around 10pm or so. but it must have taken a while for the dry air to erode since i only picked up 3" no complaints of course, its been a good winter. map, it was right around midnight. that was when I finally went from car/grass to full blown stickage on streets and sidewalk. I am guessing you were not too far beyond that. From then until about 6:00 was when we got what we were going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 i have no idea when it started accumulating at my house, i crashed around 10pm or so. but it must have taken a while for the dry air to erode since i only picked up 3" no complaints of course, its been a good winter. Maybe someone who was up watching can shed some light. No doubt dry air took its toll in your area but perhaps you also got screwed by missing some of the better bands? It seems like your 3" is on the lower-end for the area. In fact, it's almost criminal that my area in NJ got more than you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Flurries/light snow again here near Annapolis blowing in from the east. Not sure where they coming from - nothing on radar that direction. I have to say I was very low on what I thought this storm would do - my thinking was that the storm would dry out as the gulf conveyor cut off - but it didn't happen, gulf conveyor actually amped up as the storm really got going. I'm nice and happy today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Makes sense. I'm a really good forecaster.. better than a lot of mets IMO (not to back pat lol).. but some of these things are totally lost on me. You are always good at explaining them. I do find it interesting you keep saying it was not all that much like Mar 3 and a whole lot of other people say it is. I'm tempted to lean your direction though.. Such modesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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