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St. Paddy's Day Storm Obs


nj2va

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Just measured 9.1" at my work in Middletown.

 

I may have reached the 10.2" at home I needed to get to 50" on the season.

 

This winter is one for the record books.  09-10 was bigger IMBY, but this winter has just been so incredibly consistent.  Significant snows and cold in every single month.  I've had double-digit snow in every month except Jan, which as still very close.  This winter will be remembered and talked about for a long time.  We will speak about it with reverence.  Just think, maybe - just maybe - it's not quite done yet either.

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The NAM seems to think that band headed towards Loudoun and Montgomery has another inch of snow in it.  Stats padding.

 

Already picked up 0.2" from it so far (as of 10:15am).  Lots of columns and needles with the occasional dendrite mixed in then it goes to 80% dendrites as a heavier band moves through.

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Ha! We win, for once! Hillandale is only a couple miles from here:

 

"...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

   HILLANDALE            10.5   423 AM  3/17  NWS EMPLOYEE
  
1 W FAIRLAND          10.0   700 AM  3/17  TRAINED SPOTTER"

 

And that was around 4:30. There's a good 12 inches on the back deck. Yesterday, I thought 4-5 was optimistic. Incredible.

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About 6" in Towson, but thankfully only about 4.5" of powder on the driveway.  Definitely on the high end of what I was expecting.  A big win for the models -- with the exception of the Euro, they all did pretty well on this one in the last couple of days. 

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Incredible. I'm still 5.5" behind my 2/13 total.

I have 9" now, had 14.5" with that one .

It seems like surrounding D.C. suburbs within 15 miles or so almost all came within 2" maybe 3" of each other. I find that little tidbit interesting. Heck, that consistency might even expand further than that eyeballing.

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Wow that's nuts. We had 13.5" officially with the 2/13 storm. Maybe we'll finish with half of that this go around.

Yeah that DCA figure shocks me. I received 5.5" more in 2/13..I have 9" on the ground now, but had 14.5" in 2/13..and that 14.5" was a conservative measurement on my part.

Huge difference:

3/17

800.jpg

2/13:

800.jpg

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Bad forecast by me.  Good job by the NWS.  Looks like almost all the snow stuck.   So much for relying on MOS.  It was good Mar 3rd and bad last night. 

To be fair, CWG would be criticizing the hell outta NWS if the forecasts were reversed and NWS called for less than warning criteria snow right up until hours before the event.  Just goes to show that forecasting snow accumulation is a difficult job and NWS does the best they can.  Congrats NWS. 

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;-). I'm pleased how the event took shape. Drawing conclusion that some of the colder wetter solutions were accurate. There are 2 or 3 members of that SREF pack that are very high every storm...by a bunch. We know those members will always ramp the max grid up and we tweak back some to account. For planning and risk assessment it was good to brief the potential for up to xx amount as a range of possible very worst case solutions. Once the event begins the Min and Max maps disappear. We do this because they are for planning purposes only and at that time we should have narrowed the forecast to have the Most Likely graphic as our only confidence...official forecast which may or may not receive a few tweaks based on trends. Two rounds of verification begin after that... Spotter and coop reports for verification/non verification of the warnings and advisories and a new test verification to see how our official forecasts and observed snow amounts placed within the goal post of possibilities.

Great job, thanks for the explanation.

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Sterling has that 10-14" line creeping pretty close to DC. If what we're getting now in Cville swings that way, I'd believe a foot somewhere up there.

 

StormTotalSnowRange.png

 

LWX should have left the 2-4" up by the PA line... didn't get 4-6" at my house

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