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St. Paddy's Day Storm Obs


nj2va

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True enough and good point about the deform band you mentioned earlier.  I was personally much more wary of temps then I was of getting precip.  I figured 0.2-0.3" of "wasted" precip and then the remainder with 8-10:1 ratios.  So, a 3-5" or maybe 4-6" event for those of us not inside the DC urban oven.  But...sometimes all the chances work out in your favor. 

 

Yeah you wetbulbed real quick which limited any wasted QPF Good stuff.  The soundings aloft seemed relatively cold enough...but the key is getting that def banding because those usually have lift through he DGZ. The euro at 12z nailed that band. At that point the issue was where would it set up and how persistent would it be. That was my question.

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About 5 inches here I think, still snowing.

LWX > CWG

The real lesson here is that sometimes in anomalous patterns raw output >> MOS.

LWX went with trusting NWP; CWG hung it's hat on climo -- could had easily gone the other way.

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The real lesson here is that sometimes in anomalous patterns raw output >> MOS.

LWX went with trusting NWP; CWG hung it's hat on climo -- could had easily gone the other way.

True that, but LWX spanked them on this one...they held firm for the most part and CWG kept adjusting.  That first map of 1 to 4" was lolz.   That being said, CWG DID come around in the end and caught up.

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Yeah you wetbulbed real quick which limited any wasted QPF Good stuff.  The soundings aloft seemed relatively cold enough...but the key is getting that def banding because those usually have lift through he DGZ. The euro at 12z nailed that band. At that point the issue was where would it set up and how persistent would it be. That was my question.

Yup.  Not only did we wetbulb really quick (it was snowing with temps around 40-41F at the surface when it started), but we were cold advecting all afternoon.  I think that made a real difference as it brought in colder/drier air in advance of the precip. 

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True that, but LWX spanked them on this one...they held firm for the most part and CWG kept adjusting. That first map of 1 to 4" was lolz. That being said, CWG DID come around in the end and caught up.

Yes very true -- I think they both had justified forecasts at the time. I think we all can agree in this case it was great to see LWX pull out a win.

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