Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 No question he will be. As a whole CWG was pretty unanimous in the low totals, which makes it more surprising in the boom. I worried yesterday but honestly Jason and Wes have about as good a record as you can find around here forecasting snow.. and when you back it up with the rest of the team... heh, I dunno. Oops. Was definitely clear as it started we were in trouble. A lot of pieces argued against what we're experiencing now. Present the same basic setup 10 times and 9 of them will be exactly what cwg posted. Every once in a while when you need all 8 cylinders to fire a v10 appears. Reverse busts are rare and fun as F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 This is unreal... heavy snow continues... adding up quickly now. Plow truck came by and roads are already covered again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The cold air placement was just perfect for this event and that's why I went with 3"+ in T/F/S forecasts but even this afternoon I did not think anything like this would happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Ratios up here have to be between 15:1 and 18:1. 23F surface and 850's are -7C. The flakes are massive. Added 1" in about 45mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I keep looking back to Harrisonburg and seeing the snow break up some and I begin to think that it will end soon (the heavy stuff)... but it keeps filling in and backbuilding on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Dumping again. Just measured a bunch of spots. 7.75 average. I'm starting to believe in double digits. Woah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 And that's only up until midnight, correct? I think 1am.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 A lot of pieces argued against what we're experiencing now. Present the same basic setup 10 times and 9 of them will be exactly what cwg posted. Every once in a while when you need all 8 cylinders to fire a v10 appears. Reverse busts are rare and fun as F A positive tilted 500mb trough without a ton of forcing present usually struggles to get much past half a foot. This almost feels like a storm where you did worse if you didn't hug the models.. or the snowier ones at least. The high moving in tandem wit the low and the fact that there was plenty of reason to think it would have a good deal of moisture probably should have aided in confidence more.. But, we don't get storms this size with super high frequency in mid-winter let alone mid-March. I am somewhat curious as to why WPC/LWX were so confident now that they are verifying. Even in retrospect I don't think I could have gone with percentages like they did. eta: I think the fact that they were initially so bullish on Mar 3 and the situation was somewhat similar up above probably gave less credence to a reason to run more toward them as I think a lot of private forecasters tend to do whether they admit or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 as of 2am IAD - 7.0" BWI - 5.8" DCA - 3.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Winter storm warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC238 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014MDZ004>007-171445-/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-140317T1800Z//O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140317T1800Z/FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER238 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. THELOWER AMOUNTS WILL BE LOCATED RIGHT ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE.* TIMING...SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUETHROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SNOWIS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 20S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THEUPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILLBE HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 #faithintheflakes Fozz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 DCA now at 26.9"...passed 59-60, 87-88 0.8" from passing 82-83 and 1.6" from passing 65-66.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 #faithintheflakes Fozz Good thing I stayed up tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Nice URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC238 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-052>055-057-171445-/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140317T1800Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH238 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THISAFTERNOON...* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Lightest it's been in many hours right now but otherwise hour after hour of 0.5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 5.25".. Haven't gotten in a nice band yet, some to the N, some to the S, but not over me. Still more than I expected. Be back in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Nice little blow up on the radar SW of Herndon. Otherwise steady mod snow. I love this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 A positive tilted 500mb trough without a ton of forcing present usually struggles to get much past half a foot. This almost feels like a storm where you did worse if you didn't hug the models.. or the snowier ones at least. The high moving in tandem wit the low and the fact that there was plenty of reason to think it would have a good deal of moisture probably should have aided in confidence more.. But, we don't get storms this size with super high frequency in mid-winter let alone mid-March. I am somewhat curious as to why WPC/LWX were so confident now that they are verifying. Even in retrospect I don't think I could have gone with percentages like they did. eta: I think the fact that they were initially so bullish on Mar 3 and the situation was somewhat similar up above probably gave less credence to a reason to run more toward them as I think a lot of private forecasters tend to do whether they admit or not. I think what's really crazy is the temps at onset and that it was snowing @ 40+. We all expected rain and/or non-accum through 10pm-12am. That was a "smart" call for anyone. We also discussed ratios (I suck at forecasting that aspect) and 8:1 seemed logical. But I'm fairly certain we'll see over 10:1 once it's accurately calculated. Heck, that early stuff that piled up 2" reminded me of 20:1 colorado powder. There were some clues to bigger totals in comparison to the 3/3 setup. HP wasn't nearly as strong and the pv wasn't going to hammer in nails overhead. I expected the banded nature the whole time but I didn't expect the banded nature to coincide with favorable temps and ratios. All in all a very tough forecast for anyone and those who went big with sound reasoning get the nod here for sure. My weenie forecast for days was a 2-4/3-6 deal. I did say "some" upside but there is not doubt in my mind I busted and didn't expect this. Learning experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 DCA now at 26.9"...passed 59-60, 87-88 0.8" from passing 82-83 and 1.6" from passing 65-66.... Not bad for a non-nino/+ NAO winter. Especially considering pre-season expectations were not too high for a stellar snow year. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 11 inches. Got to hit 12. It has been ripping for hours here. Gonna be a beautiful picture day tomorrow. But after this... let the spring sever t-storms start... I am done with winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 My winter storm warning was just upped to 5 to 10 inches. I just got "wxtrix'ed" by the nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Like MdStorm said. Get this winter with some of the biggest indexes unfavorable can you imagine what a moderate nino neg/nao/ao might bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Nice URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC238 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-052>055-057-171445-/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140317T1800Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH238 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THISAFTERNOON...* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES IN LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. I think we are done by 6am...then --SN, then maybe we have another band swing through midday.. 4kNAM says yes.....RAP says...eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think what's really crazy is the temps at onset and that it was snowing @ 40+. We all expected rain and/or non-accum through 10pm-12am. That was a "smart" call for anyone. We also discussed ratios (I suck at forecasting that aspect) and 8:1 seemed logical. But I'm fairly certain we'll see over 10:1 once it's accurately calculated. Heck, that early stuff that piled up 2" reminded me of 20:1 colorado powder. There were some clues to bigger totals in comparison to the 3/3 setup. HP wasn't nearly as strong and the pv wasn't going to hammer in nails overhead. I expected the banded nature the whole time but I didn't expect the banded nature to coincide with favorable temps and ratios. All in all a very tough forecast for anyone and those who went big with sound reasoning get the nod here for sure. My weenie forecast for days was a 2-4/3-6 deal. I did say "some" upside but there is not doubt in my mind I busted and didn't expect this. Learning experience. No way of predicting these banding features and where they will set up. I just got back in from a walk. Really coming down. Measured in 3 spots. 8" 8.5" 8.8". I'm calling it 8.5". 10" looks easy. Radar continues to back build. Over 50" for season . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Right around 6" here. Definitely compacting though and I didn't walk that far to get a proper measurement. Still dumping. Should get to 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Like MdStorm said. Get this winter with some of the biggest indexes unfavorable can you imagine what a moderate nino neg/nao/ao might bring. It might end up being one of the snowiest winters ever in Washington DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I think we are done by 6am...then --SN, then maybe we have another band swing through midday.. 4kNAM says yes.....RAP says...eh Def would appear that way... even if we dont get anything midday... this storm is a win on so many levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 4.7 inches here in Spotsylvania, VA.....currently 28 degrees with Moderate Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Right around 6" here. Definitely compacting though and I didn't walk that far to get a proper measurement. Still dumping. Should get to 8? we're closers....I think 8" for you is reachable....we're good at only a few things- - 95 degree days, wind, 80 degree mins - - and backbuilding, and finale bands are 2 of those things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 I'm sitting here with all my house lights off and outside lights on. What a beautiful seen. It's snowing at a inch plus per hour. It looks like a thick fog has set in. I'm blown away by this storm. It just keeps pumping in the snow. I took some serious measurement about 20 minutes ago. I averaged 6.5". My saying goes. NEVER TRUST A SNOW HATER lol. You guys rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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