ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Here is a photo with about a foot of snow on the boardwalk in Feb 2010.. Ocean City MD Boardwalk in the snow.JPG February... Yes. But mid March 6-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS 18Z run says we do it all again 3/25-3/26 lol EURO has it to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The NWS maps make at least as much sense to me as the CWG maps. Both present a bewildering array of possible options and parameters that always allows at least a C+/B- forecast no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 He clearly said "in March". Sheesh. Pretty close lol. 6-10 in mid March would be apocalyptic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 CWG boom and bust might be similar but it's not the same IMO. Maybe as the event closes it looks similar but you'll never see CWG boom and bust range from .5" to 20" I don't think. Knowing the maps are based off sref etc as a base makes them more understandable tho given what it see from sref might back up the idea that they don't necessarily serve a huge purpose at least more than a day or two out. CWG is hand drawn product geared toward the public. I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 6-10 inch snow in mid March following a 70 degree day in Ocean City February... Yes. But mid March 6-10? Like we have all tried to say, it can happen...not saying it will, but it can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think its fine as a product and serves a purpose, even if the intended audience isn't the average citizen. CWG essentially does the same thing with their boom and bust forecasts. I think the product gets extra scrutiny here but in reality, very few people outside of this forum probably even see that product. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I give up and I thought my comment misinterpretation yesterday was bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 CWG is hand drawn product geared toward the public. I like it I think there are similarities but CWG boom and bust are probably more like 20-30 percentile and 70-80 vs the 10/95. In theory unless there's a giant disaster the low and high end maps from LWX should never be right though I guess they'll get closer to that possibility right before an event. In this case 2" seems like an awful high bar for the least likely scenario in the city. I'm not even sure I like the boom and bust stuff.. you're either right or wrong. It's not like 1000s of people will die if you miss by 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 and I thought my comment misinterpretation yesterday was bad They're using SREF members, which in this case are an outlier and often are, as the core starting point for a major "groundbreaking" product.....it is standard govt stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I give up I give up I understand what you're saying. I also agree with Fozz that making them public is a challenge because how people run with bad ideas and FB blasts things not meant to be used for that purpose. I understand that the NWS can't really have a secret club of information, but in the end I think it makes your job harder. With that, all joking aside I think any one place will struggle to get more than 8 inches, Counties along 81 included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Like we have all tried to say, it can happen...not saying it will, but it can. Sand cools pretty easily anyway doesn't it? I'm sort of perplexed by the whole conversation. Why can 6-10 happen in coastal Calvert but not Ocean City? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think there are similarities but CWG boom and bust are probably more like 20-30 percentile and 70-80 vs the 10/95. In theory unless there's a giant disaster the low and high end maps from LWX should never be right though I guess they'll get closer to that possibility right before an event. I'm not even sure I like the boom and bust stuff.. you're either right or wrong. It's not like 1000s of people will die if you miss by 3". as you know, I cant stand it....if you use a confidence bar there is no need for it.....CWG's map tells me this We are somewhat confident that the following will happen 1" or less - 15% 1-2.5" - 30% 2.5 - 4" - 30% 4" - 8" - 25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 21z SREFs continue to state that DCA is slightly above freezing at 00z and ~30 by 03z MON. 850s remain same as 15z pretty much Looks like a slight north nudge in QPF placement... and more area included in the 1" QPF zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The NWS maps make at least as much sense to me as the CWG maps. Both present a bewildering array of possible options and parameters that always allows at least a C+/B- forecast no matter what happens. If I click point and click over Springfield Mall at I-95 and 395 , it tells me I am getting 5-11"..so a median of 8".....this is a publicly available product, telling me the best guess is 8"....I have yet to understand what products are intended for the public, which ones are to be used, and what is the "official" forecast for DC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 can't wait for the obs thread sat pics really look great on this thing....that u/l low is churning away down there and it sure looks like it will be fighting hard any suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 21z SREFs continue to state that DCA is slightly above freezing at 00z and ~30 by 03z MON. 850s remain same as 15z pretty much .75, all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think there are similarities but CWG boom and bust are probably more like 20-30 percentile and 70-80 vs the 10/95. In theory unless there's a giant disaster the low and high end maps from LWX should never be right though I guess they'll get closer to that possibility right before an event. In this case 2" seems like an awful high bar for the least likely scenario in the city. I'm not even sure I like the boom and bust stuff.. you're either right or wrong. It's not like 1000s of people will die if you miss by 3". Maybe they can try to narrow the confidence interval closer to the event from 90/10 to 75/25? Weather is not politics, so imo, there is more in between situations than you would think. I think 3" makes a huge difference in any storm, though less-so in 20+ events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 21z SREFs continue to state that DCA is slightly above freezing at 00z and ~30 by 03z MON. 850s remain same as 15z pretty much Looks like a slight north nudge in QPF placement... 21zsref_namer_045_precip_p24_3-15-14.gif srefs out early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Sand cools pretty easily anyway doesn't it? I'm sort of perplexed by the whole conversation. Why can 6-10 happen in coastal Calvert but not Ocean City? it can obviously.....not that it will I am a member of the public right now...What is my current forecast for where I live and where can I find it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 From what I can tell, here's the current guidance for Towson: 18z NAM: 0.63" 18z GFS: 0.55" 18z RGEM: 0.47" (Estimated from metograms on meteocentre) 12z GGEM: 0.70" (Estimated from metograms on meteocentre) 12z UKMET: 0.67" (Estimated precip map on meteocentre) 12z Euro: <0.3" (from reading this forum) I'm pretty sure the bulk of this falls as snow for all of these. Verbatim, the GFS has us at about -3C at 7:00 on Sunday night. Ignoring the Euro for now, that would be an average of 0.6" qpf falling as snow. At 8:1 ratios, that would be about 5". At 10:1, that would be about 6". Even if you assume that the Euro gives us 0" and include that in the average, we're still looking at 4-5". So to me, some of those snow maps look a little low around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 21z SREFs continue to state that DCA is slightly above freezing at 00z and ~30 by 03z MON. 850s remain same as 15z pretty much Looks like a slight north nudge in QPF placement... and more area included in the 1" QPF zone 21zsref_namer_045_precip_p24_3-15-14.gif Ya .50" up to MD/PA line now. Last run was .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 srefs out early They are usually out between 8:10 to 8:20 so they seem right on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 21z SREFs continue to state that DCA is slightly above freezing at 00z and ~30 by 03z MON. 850s remain same as 15z pretty much Looks like a slight north nudge in QPF placement... and more area included in the 1" QPF zone Yeah looks like the two 1" areas in CVA joined into one and bumped north a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 as you know, I cant stand it....if you use a confidence bar there is no need for it.....CWG's map tells me this We are somewhat confident that the following will happen 1" or less - 15% 1-2.5" - 30% 2.5 - 4" - 30% 4" - 8" - 25% More and more of what we do will become probabilistic. It answers the question... What is your confidence level that we receive a certain amount or the worst case scenario? Telling folks 4-6 doesn't say much. Planners want a better way to communicate uncertainties. If there is a 5 or 10 percent chance it could be 12 then it needs to be communicated. For example... Anne Arundel OEM upgrades its snow moving equipment to heavy duty stuff at 18" that is a key threshold, at 8-12" an eoc activates requiring extra staff. If we are looking at a moderate to sig event they want to know what the probability of greater than a certain number will be...they then look at the numbers over a 48-72 hr timeframe to see what the trends are... Are they getting snowier or drier etc with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Maybe they can try to narrow the confidence interval closer to the event from 90/10 to 75/25? Weather is not politics, so imo, there is more in between situations than you would think. I think 3" makes a huge difference in any storm, though less-so in 20+ events. I've found that people think you bust when it is supposed to snow and they walk outside and it it is raining or it isnt snowing...if you call for an impactful storm of 5-8" and you get 3.5", the public has no idea you busted assuming the snow sticks and causes disruption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 More and more of what we do will become probabilistic. It answers the question... What is your confidence level that we receive a certain amount or the worst case scenario? Telling folks 4-6 doesn't say much. Planners want a better way to communicate uncertainties. If there is a 5 or 10 percent chance it could be 12 then it needs to be communicated. For example... Anne Arundel OEM upgrades its snow moving equipment to heavy duty stuff at 18" that is a key threshold, at 8-12" an eoc activates requiring extra staff. If we are looking at a moderate to sig event they want to know what the probability of greater than a certain number will be...they then look at the numbers over a 48-72 hr timeframe to see what the trends are... Are they getting snowier or drier etc with time. I love probabilistic forecasting, even if the public doesnt love it...I do think CWG should be more deterministic on a map...they can hedge in the narrative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Here is the probability of > 4" http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT4.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I've found that people think you bust when it is supposed to snow and they walk outside and it it is raining or it isnt snowing...if you call for an impactful storm of 5-8" and you get 3.5", the public has no idea you busted assuming the snow sticks and causes disruption unless the roadway conditions differ from their expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Here is the probability of > 4" http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT4.png That's low when they have a watch for the possibility of 5+, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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