ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I still don't get that map or at least why it's public. I just post it to twitter without commentary and people think it's the forecast lol. The 95th percentile is solely for emergency managers for planning... Ie... What the worst possible case they could expect with the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Well we say that JB2's numbers are going to be wrong typically when he overforecasts a storm. Yeah, I know. I guess I overreacted a bit. I just don't understand all of the bashing of a map that could very well verify. Plus, they've been pretty accurate this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yeah, I know. I guess I overreacted a bit. I just don't understand all of the bashing of a map that could very well verify. Plus, they've been pretty accurate this season. based on what, exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 for being an official weather entity, you guys should be better...2" is definitely not a 10th percentile amount....shouldn't a National Weather Service forecast office be consistently better than random non-mets on a message board? That's a very crappy statement! Read and understand the product and what the purpose is behind them!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 no Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 based on what, exactly? I was just trying to make a point. There map doesn't make sense to me. I was just saying there map has just as much of a chance of verifying as DT's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yes you're telling me OC biggest storm is 5.5"? or close to that?....or did you mean March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 That's a very crappy statement! Read and understand the product and what the purpose is behind them!!! what 's the purpose in telling me there is a 90% chance DC will get at least 2"?...that's ludicrous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS 18Z run says we do it all again 3/25-3/26 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 for being an official weather entity, you guys should be better...2" is definitely not a 10th percentile amount....shouldn't a National Weather Service forecast office be consistently better than random non-mets on a message board? The new products are meant to give emergency managers a best and worst case scenario then the official forecast is the most likely. The min and max are populated with a 32 member ensemble with 27 members of the sref. They are then tweaked by forecasters a tad to come closer in line with what is expected for the Cwa. They are also close in line with WPC since we worked with them to gain the guidance. Simply put if you have to make a million dollar decision with regard to planning you want to know a range of possibilities... What's the worst I can expect and the least. Simple as that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The new products are meant to give emergency managers a best and worst case scenario then the official forecast is the most likely. The min and max are populated with a 32 member ensemble with 27 members of the sref. They are then tweaked by forecasters a tad to come closer in line with what is expected for the Cwa. They are also close in line with WPC since we worked with them to gain the guidance. Simply put if you have to make a million dollar decision with regard to planning you want to know a range of possibilities... What's the worst I can expect and the least. Simple as that my over/under on those maps is 6"....that's nuts dude....sorry.....though I understand the need to prepare for the worst... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The 95th percentile is solely for emergency managers for planning... Ie... What the worst possible case they could expect with the eventThat's fine. I totally understand that aspect but why is it not on a private page then? Keep it simple never hurts for a public facing site. I don't mind any of the other maps really the 10th and 90th just seem unnecessary.Btw, I do appreciate your willingness to chat about this and I hope it's not taken as bashing. I just honestly don't totally understand this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 what 's the purpose in telling me there is a 90% chance DC will get at least 2"?...that's ludicrous I give up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm trying to get a handle on what ratios to expect. I know someone mentioned 8:1 based on the experience with the last storm, but that was a different situation that started out warm and never got really cold through the whole column. Looking at the GFS and NAM soundings IMBY, it looks like we'll be plenty cold through the entire column on this one (assuming the snow makes it this far north). Cobb is putting out ratios of roughly 12-15:1 for KMTN, but from what I understand Cobb often overestimates ratios. So maybe 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 That's fine. I totally understand that aspect but why is it not on a private page then? Keep it simple never hurts for a public facing site. I don't mind any of the other maps really the 10th and 90th just seem unnecessary. Btw, I do appreciate your willingness to chat about this and I hope it's not taken as bashing. I just honestly don't totally understand this one. It's very popular amongst our core partners. That website is used by them and hundreds of other decision makers and the media. CWG looks at them as well. Public can use them as a planning and decision tool especially for school decisions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 my over/under on those maps is 6"....that's nuts dude....sorry.....though I understand the need to prepare for the worst... The maps narrow as the event draws near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It's very popular amongst our core partners. That website is used by them and hundreds of other decision makers and the media. CWG looks at them as well. Public can use them as a planning and decision tool especially for school decisionsFair enough. I do think for some reason NWS is very sensitive to criticism. Coming from a policy org I'm used to seeing most gov agencies take it as it's meant.. To open a conversation. I get the sense NWS is kinda closed to ideas from outside the org. But that's a conversation for another day and again I compliment you on being cordial and explanatory in the face of questioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It's very popular amongst our core partners. That website is used by them and hundreds of other decision makers and the media. CWG looks at them as well. Public can use them as a planning and decision tool especially for school decisions I think its fine as a product and serves a purpose, even if the intended audience isn't the average citizen. CWG essentially does the same thing with their boom and bust forecasts. I think the product gets extra scrutiny here but in reality, very few people outside of this forum probably even see that product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Fair enough. I do think for some reason NWS is very sensitive to criticism. Coming from a policy org I'm used to seeing most gov agencies take it as it's meant.. To open a conversation. I get the sense NWS is kinda closed to ideas from outside the org. But that's a conversation for another day and again I compliment you on being cordial and explanatory in the face of questioning. Gaining feedback is the main part of my position in the agency. I get feedback all the time... In fact these products are the result of an extensive feedback campaign. We are very open but when people make silly statements like they are worthless, ludicrous, stupid and the like that is not feedback it's immature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 you're telling me OC biggest storm is 5.5"? or close to that?....or did you mean March? Here is a photo with about a foot of snow on the boardwalk in Feb 2010.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I know for a fact that OC got 14" in that Dec 2010 debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The maps narrow as the event draws near. my current point and click is 4-8".....and you are right...in years I have never fully understood the products you put out and what their purpose is....what is for the public, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think its fine as a product and serves a purpose, even if the intended audience isn't the average citizen. CWG essentially does the same thing with their boom and bust forecasts. I think the product gets extra scrutiny here but in reality, very few people outside of this forum probably even see that product. Good point. The future of weather forecasting will be probabilistic. SPC is doing it, WPC and NHC. We are testing it locally and it will likely become official for all of eastern region next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 you're telling me OC biggest storm is 5.5"? or close to that?....or did you mean March? 6-10 inch snow in mid March following a 70 degree day in Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I wonder what will happen if the NAM sticks to its extremely snowy scenario? Its done pretty well with 3/3 and 2/13 (especially 2/13, where it showed the dump of snow overnight followed by the dry slottish midday followed by the 2-4" closer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Fair enough. I do think for some reason NWS is very sensitive to criticism. Coming from a policy org I'm used to seeing most gov agencies take it as it's meant.. To open a conversation. I get the sense NWS is kinda closed to ideas from outside the org. But that's a conversation for another day and again I compliment you on being cordial and explanatory in the face of questioning. this is an org that is certifying numbers that gave us 25:1 ratios on 2/25 and only 0.18" of liquid on 1/21...these numbers are becoming part of an official record....I dont take them too seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think its fine as a product and serves a purpose, even if the intended audience isn't the average citizen. CWG essentially does the same thing with their boom and bust forecasts. I think the product gets extra scrutiny here but in reality, very few people outside of this forum probably even see that product.CWG boom and bust might be similar but it's not the same IMO. Maybe as the event closes it looks similar but you'll never see CWG boom and bust range from .5" to 20" I don't think. Knowing the maps are based off sref etc as a base makes them more understandable tho given what it see from sref might back up the idea that they don't necessarily serve a huge purpose at least more than a day or two out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 6-10 inch snow in mid March following a 70 degree day in Ocean City true...it's almost as likely as getting only 0.18" of liquid on 1/21 and certifying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 That's a very crappy statement! Read and understand the product and what the purpose is behind them!!! I getcha, I like the maps. You always have storms that over/underperform the "stated" forecast totals, and people are all up in arms saying the NWS blew it, etc. February 13th overperformed. March 3rd underperformed (especially to the south). The maps make perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I wonder what will happen if the NAM sticks to its extremely snowy scenario? Its done pretty well with 3/3 and 2/13 (especially 2/13, where it showed the dump of snow overnight followed by the dry slottish midday followed by the 2-4" closer). NAM is surprisingly good in the short range, it just tends to suck after 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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