ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wxrisk map is up on fb and while I don't like speaking negative on forums about forecasts but this one takes the cake. I would love to know how on earth 6-10 inches will fall on the DE and MD shore in mid March! 6-10 near the Ocean City area!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wxrisk map is up on fb and while I don't like speaking negative on forums about forecasts but this one takes the cake. I would love to know how on earth 6-10 inches will fall on the DE and MD shore in mid March! 6-10 near the Ocean City area!! It can happen, if surface temps are cold with good rates, just like anywhere else. I think he is too far south with the heavier stripe, and i still have my doubts that any place east of the mountains will see more than 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This storm is fun. Lots of different maps. People usually seem like they copy eachother and change the numbers slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It can happen, if surface temps are cold with good rates, just like anywhere else. I think he is too far south with the heavier stripe, and i still have my doubts that any place east of the mountains will see more than 6 inches. 6-10 inches couldn't accumulate in Ocean City if you freeze dried the surface for 2 days and packed it in ice. It's tough to get in the peak winter months let alone following 70 degree temps and mid March sun angle. 2-4 is stretching it over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Wxrisk map is up on fb and while I don't like speaking negative on forums about forecasts but this one takes the cake. I would love to know how on earth 6-10 inches will fall on the DE and MD shore in mid March! 6-10 near the Ocean City area!! Time of day, it's completely possible if the majority of the heavy snow falls overnight. Roads never accumulate down here in March but that is a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 6-10 inches couldn't accumulate in Ocean City if you freeze dried the surface for 2 days and packed it in ice. It's tough to get in the peak winter months let alone following 70 degree temps and mid March sun angle. 2-4 is stretching it over there.Their all time record snow is what 5.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It can happen, if surface temps are cold with good rates, just like anywhere else. I think he is too far south with the heavier stripe, and i still have my doubts that any place east of the mountains will see more than 6 inches. Sorry if my last post was a bit over the top! I'm sorry. It's just that I brief emergency managers in that area and they look at this stuff and panic for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This storm is fun. Lots of different maps. People usually seem like they copy eachother and change the numbers slightly. Lol. Yeah it does seem so. I am sure that does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Their all time record snow is what 5.5"? Pretty close lol. 6-10 in mid March would be apocalyptic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Sorry if my last post was a bit over the top! I'm sorry. It's just that I brief emergency managers in that area and they look at this stuff and panic for nothing. Lol I dont care. I get your point. But if there is no easterly flow and surface temps are at freezing with a cold column, it can happen. I will be watching the OC boardwalk cam tomorrow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Lol I dont care. I get your point. But if there is no easterly flow and surface temps are at freezing with a cold column, it can happen. I will be watching the OC boardwalk cam tomorrow now. LOL. Post it on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Goal posts are narrowing... Min- 10th percentile (expect at least this much) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png Most likely (official) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Max (95th percentile) - prepare for possibility of this much ( down several inches across the board) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png - overall the solutions are narrowing yet there is enough uncertainty in play to keep goal posts a bit broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Goal posts are narrowing... Min- 10th percentile (expect at least this much) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png Most likely (official) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Max (95th percentile) - prepare for possibility of this much ( down several inches across the board) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png - overall the solutions are narrowing yet there is enough uncertainty in play to keep goal posts a bit broad. The 95th percentile did not narrow. If anything, it widened with an overall increase expanding north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 ALL: Don't use QPF totals without first verifying how much falls on front end with warmer temps! I saw experienced mets mess that up in the 3/3 event. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 95th percentile did not narrow. If anything, it widened with an overall increase expanding north. No sir they were widespread 14-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hey, I know I'm new at this, but this is my first guess map. Figured I'd add it to the mix... Not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilton Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I don't understand the bashing of EPAWA. They're great forecasters in my opinion. I've followed them all Winter, and they got just about every event right. While there map is a bit depressing, and I don't know why they went with what they did, I'm sure they had a reason to make it this way. They posted a lower-than-the-rest forecast that snow lovers here don't like. WXRisk posted an equally-unlikely high forecast and there was hardly a bad word about it. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 They posted a lower-than-the-rest forecast that snow lovers here don't like. WXRisk posted an equally-unlikely high forecast and there was hardly a bad word about it. :-) Both will be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 No sir they were widespread 14-18 I was speaking to the "down several inches across the board".. Previous map: max areas did show a consolidated average, but overall maximum did not decrease in relation to area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 That EPAWa map(whoever they are) is the best map Ive seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I was speaking to the "down several inches across the board".. Previous map: max areas did show a consolidated average, but overall maximum did not decrease in relation to area. I still don't get that map or at least why it's public. I just post it to twitter without commentary and people think it's the forecast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Pretty close lol. 6-10 in mid March would be apocalyptic no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Goal posts are narrowing... Min- 10th percentile (expect at least this much) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png Most likely (official) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Max (95th percentile) - prepare for possibility of this much ( down several inches across the board) http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png - overall the solutions are narrowing yet there is enough uncertainty in play to keep goal posts a bit broad. for being an official weather entity, you guys should be better...2" is definitely not a 10th percentile amount....shouldn't a National Weather Service forecast office be consistently better than random non-mets on a message board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 6-10 inches couldn't accumulate in Ocean City if you freeze dried the surface for 2 days and packed it in ice. It's tough to get in the peak winter months let alone following 70 degree temps and mid March sun angle. 2-4 is stretching it over there. Not sure what logic you are using. It doesn't matter if it's March or not, or that the day before was 70. I hate that "day before was too warm" argument. That has been proven over and over that isn't a HUGE factor. It snowed several inches in Dallas, TX less than 24 hours after it was 75 degrees earlier this year or last year, can't remember. This storm for us is mainly at night with temps crashing. It will snow and it will stick in Ocean City like it has multiple times this winter. Sorry I'm not trying to be rude, but just cause it's a beach or that we are closer to the ocean than DC does not mean we can't get 6-10 inches of snow. Here's our current thinking as of now. Will try to pinpoint a bullseye tomorrow and update totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Imo- the vast majority of this forum will end up with 2-6". There's my map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Think a very slight northern trend will continue, not even as much with the whole system but a bit of an expansion of the precip shield. My numbers, final call to come later tonight. BWI: 3.1" DCA: 4.5" IAD: 4.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 ALL: Don't use QPF totals without first verifying how much falls on front end with warmer temps! I saw experienced mets mess that up in the 3/3 event. Sent from my SCH-I545 ...and before we start pointing out how low those dewpoints are, let's hope we get the rates (and the flake size...hopefully dendrites) to maximize the evaporative cooling. I always worry about all Miller B's, whether they come from the OH Valley (more classic case) and reform east of the central Apps off the mid Atlantic coast, or as with this case, a lower Mississippi Valley/Lower TN Valley jumper east of the southern Apps. Either way, during these types of systems with a transferring surface low that jumps the CAD wedge, I am always concerned about either pcpn rates and/or dry slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I don't know if this has been discussed, but JB2's snow map isn't bad. Maybe a tad too high around the M/D line. https://www.facebook.com/54875673475/photos/a.472052198475.261315.54875673475/10152246436028476/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I don't know if this has been discussed, but JB2's snow map isn't bad. Maybe a tad too high around the M/D line. https://www.facebook.com/54875673475/photos/a.472052198475.261315.54875673475/10152246436028476/?type=1&theater lol @ the disclaimer *These are my low end confident numbers. They could go up, but should not go down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Go tell them that instead of posting it here. It may be a bit more useful there. A map that shows low totals (and may be correct) and everyone says that it's wrong... Well we say that JB2's numbers are going to be wrong typically when he overforecasts a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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