Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The EURO will come north at 00z I bet. From your mouth to the King's ear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The precip distribution on the northern edge makes a lot more sense to me than 12z. Totals are prob jacked but the swath looks more logical. Exactly. And it happens with every storm. The models supress the precip shield too much. And we all know what ends up verifying. I think a 3-6+ storm for the area is pretty much a lock at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Sweet snow to flooding rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The precip distribution on the northern edge makes a lot more sense to me than 12z. Totals are prob jacked but the swath looks more logical. Agreed. It dropped that unbelievable cutoff. Great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM at end of Run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Sweet snow to flooding rain. It really pulls the surface reflection pretty far west. Inland NC...and really wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Sweet snow to flooding rain. It's March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 For those that jumped pre-happy hour runs--hope your landing was full of excruciating pain. Now lets see how the rest of the day/night plays out. NAM wheelhouse? Lets hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is a lol run for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM at end of Run Looks just like euro member #31 from last night. It has support!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 This is a keeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks just like euro member #31 from last night. It has support!!!! more than you'd think! http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_pcp_m_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It really pulls the surface reflection pretty far west. Inland NC...and really wrapped up. Lol NAM wrapped up? at the end of its run? Never does that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Exactly. And it happens with every storm. The models supress the precip shield too much. And we all know what ends up verifying. I think a 3-6+ storm for the area is pretty much a lock at this point. There was a lot pointing to way less snow than originally thought with the early March storm and it was pretty much ignored. I think you have to give weight to sharp cutoffs. You also have to consider that Bob and others have said this storm is different from that storm. I wouldn't know because I didn't really follow either. Also I think the trend is better for this one. The earlier storm just kept getting drier and this one seems to be coming back a little, at least on the American end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks just like euro member #31 from last night. It has support!!!! I didn't see the Euro member, but looks to me that the "second storm" on the NAM is some snow at the beginning changing to pretty heavy rain? ETA: Reminding myself..."don't parse the NAM beyond 48 hours...don't parse the NAM beyond 48 hours...!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM at end of Run Isn't it rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I didn't see the Euro member, but looks to me that the "second storm" on the NAM is some snow at the beginning changing to pretty heavy rain? I posted a snip earlier. Here it is again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm saving this bufkit file for all time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Isn't it rain? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140315+18+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Isn't it rain? It is...and a lot of it. I literally lol'd when I saw it just a second ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I posted a snip earlier. Here it is again #31.JPG You weren't kidding...that's damn near a carbon copy of the NAM! Amazing similarity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well this looks funkyhttp://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014031518&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Isn't it rain? not for you!...get ready for your power outage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 4k NAM for DC/Arl/Alex: ~0.01 through 3z (11p) ~0.6 through 12z (8a) I want to see the other models spit out NAM-type QPF amounts from 3z to 12z. Total QPF through 18z below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The prime difference with the 18z nam and the globals is the 850 low is more organized with better circulation. The n-nw side of the shield is simply more juiced with a banded structure. Euro is kinda weak and strung out in comparison. GFS is more of a middle ground between them. The nam is "supposed" to be a better model at picking up on things like this at short leads because of its resolution. We'll see how things go tonight and tomorrow. I'm not willing to discount the nam just because it's an outlier. Even though the totals seem quite unlikely, the better expanse and banded nature of the precip is believable. I kinda feel the same way zwyts does. The possibility of a better organized system has just presented itself. But until it has support, favoring it is a big mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It is...and a lot of it. I literally lol'd when I saw it just a second ago Same here! Though looks like a certain amount of snow before we get flooded. I'd gladly skip out on the ULL if this is what would happen, and keep the snow we get tomorrow night/Monday for at least a day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 It is...and a lot of it. I literally lol'd when I saw it just a second ago If it happened would be nasty flooding. But, highly doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The CRAS for fun? Mods can delete if you want... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Th HI RES NAM is looking juicy for all of us. Heaviest still a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 based on the vert motion maps out first on the RGEM, it should be a hair north w/precip shield than 12Z but this is based on 24 & 36 hr maps as the 48 hr map ain't out yet EDIT saw 48 hr map, it's gunna be close...both runs will probably be very similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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