Benchmark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Much better! Hope Hi res shifts back N too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks beautiful at 39, blues approaching DC and sim radar is smoking us with 35 dbz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Solid one run improvement. .25"+ now north of MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Compare 12 to 18z. Right or wrong @ 18z, the structure of the precip shield to the n-nw of the 850lp improved greatly. Definitely implies more of a comma structure. Low is more consolidated and good banding on the n side. It's a good sign at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hour 39 looks good for DCA on sim radar... heavy rates over the area. 18z NAM continues a slow trend north with precip shield... most runs at 12z shifted a "tick" north with precip shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 That's pretty nice right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Compare 12 to 18z. Right or wrong @ 18z, the structure of the precip shield to the n-nw of the 850lp improved greatly. Definitely implies more of a comma structure. Low is more consolidated and good banding on the n side. It's a good sign at this lead. Yes, a pretty big shift that's for sure. Hope it's on to something correct and not the 18Z NAM being, well, the 18Z NAM!! (I know, that's not a fair statement about the 18Z cycle, just threw that in for a laugh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hr 42 still has the 0.25" QPF contour in FFX and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Compare 12 to 18z. Right or wrong @ 18z, the structure of the precip shield to the n-nw of the 850lp improved greatly. Definitely implies more of a comma structure. Low is more consolidated and good banding on the n side. It's a good sign at this lead. As you said, is it right? The Euro solution is still worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 yep, ythe models shifted south early so enough time to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Edit: over 1 inch in DC through 45, with 0.5 covering 4/5 of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 big shift for BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Step in the right direction. Pretty much think that is the solution give or take 25-50miles. Also amounts probably not as high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is a crushing blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Edit: over 1 inch in DC through 45, with 0.5 covering 4/5 of MD. ~0.9" through 8am which is good since the sun comes up around 7:15 or so. Nice run...I'd like to see the RGEM and 4k NAM back it up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM sure has been good for whiplash in the last four cycles. Last night's 00Z was awesome, 06Z was awful, 12Z slight marginal improvement, 18Z heading toward awesome again(?). Euro is still worrisome as always, but wonder if the NAM is moving toward the 12Z GFS camp or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The precip distribution on the northern edge makes a lot more sense to me than 12z. Totals are prob jacked but the swath looks more logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Step in the right direction. Pretty much think that is the solution give or take 25-50miles. Also amounts probably not as high. Agree. Probably better to just use the NAM for its system setup rather than use its qpf numbers. Still, this north trend is encouraging especially when you consider that we lost the NAM around here on 3/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The precip distribution on the northern edge makes a lot more sense to me than 12z. Totals are prob jacked but the swath looks more logical. Yes. And even cutting back its QPF some, it gives more confidence to something wetter, most notably for those areas that were on the extreme edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'll take LWX local model for 1,000 please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The precip distribution on the northern edge makes a lot more sense to me than 12z. Totals are prob jacked but the swath looks more logical. Yup, most def agree. Prob could cut 1/3 off of NAM total snow accums and would prob be final verdict in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Check out the VVs at 700-mb late tomorrow night. Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yup, most def agree. Prob could cut 1/3 off of NAM total snow accums and would prob be final verdict in reality Agree. Even cutting ~1/3 off its raw QPF values, that's still puts us close to ~0.70-0.75, or so it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 We are in the NAM's wheel house now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 We are in the NAM's wheel house now famous last words lol EDIT: I didn't know it had one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 We are in the NAM's wheel house now Sometimes I feel like I'm in the NAMs wheel well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 famous last words lol EDIT: I didn't know it had one! I think that stuff is over done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM going bonkers with ULL too. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The EURO will come north at 00z I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 My latest thoughts for DC I'm dubious of what can stick here in DC before around 3-4z....and after 15z....here is latest approx QPF in the 3z to 15z period 12z Euro: 0.3"12z Canadian: 0.4" 12z GFS: 0.35" 18z NAM: 0.75" Until the NAM has more support, for now I'd probably toss it and lean toward 0.4".....will use 8:1 ratios to balance the fact that it may be a lower ratio event even when snowing and 32 or under, account for antecedent conditions and climo, the fact that we may not get much accumulation toward the beginning and end of that window, AND to account for the possibility of some minor accumulation before and after the window (particularly after when we "could finish with a heavy burst a la 3/3). I think 2-4" is the right forecast at this time for DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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