yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 15z SREFs have DCA knocking on the 32 degree door by 8pm... in the upper 20s by 11 850s sit -4 to -6 for entire event for most of us Best 24 hr QPF map shows the following at 15z MON (the map used was the 48hrs one): 0.25 QPF line is right on top of M/D line... 0.5 QPF line pretty much just NW of Winchester in VA to just south of BWI... 1" marker in SW corner of LWX CWA where Winter Storm Warning is now in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think in DC, I think I have equal chances of 4" and 1" ......and the greatest chance is 2-3"....so I'd probably forecast 2-3"..... You'll like the CWG forecast which is 1-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Preliminary snowfall... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png May I suggest you keep verification statistics on these products, if you don't already. From what I've seen they have been consistently overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 CWG map.. probably one of the bigger divergences from NWS I can remember http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/15/update-on-the-snow-that-almost-nobody-wants-first-call-map-and-timeline/ We differed a lot during Mar 3 too. The positive tilted trough should worry them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 We differed a lot during Mar 3 too. The positive tilted trough should worry them.Oh yeah I forgot they has us in 10-14 for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I get like 0.2" and I'm sure gulf coast convection will destroy at least 1/3 of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Lots of winter storm watches just went up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 May I suggest you keep verification statistics on these products, if you don't already. From what I've seen they have been consistently overdone. Verification is done on every single storm. It's a policy for all offices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Further west... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV310 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING...KYZ103-105-WVZ005>008-013>018-024>030-035>040-160315-/O.NEW.KRLX.WW.Y.0016.140316T1800Z-140317T1500Z/BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHLAND...LOUISA...KENOVA...CEREDO...WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...POINT PLEASANT...NEW HAVEN...RAVENSWOOD...RIPLEY...HARTS...ALUM CREEK...HAMLIN...WEST HAMLIN...TEAYS VALLEY...HURRICANE...CHARLESTON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...SPENCER...ELIZABETH...GRANTSVILLE...WILLIAMSON...GILBERT CREEK...CHATTAROY...AMHERSTDALE-ROBINETTE...LOGAN...CHAPMANVILLE...MALLORY...SWITZER...HOLDEN...MAN...MADISON...CLAY...SUTTON...GASSAWAY...BURNSVILLE...FLATWOODS...GLENVILLE...WESTON...BECKLEY...OAK HILL...FAYETTEVILLE...MONTGOMERY...SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...CRAIGSVILLE...COWEN...BUCKHANNON...PHILIPPI...BELINGTON310 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11 AMEDT MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 11AM EDT MONDAY.* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA.* TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...SNOW ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT. PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CREATE REDUCED VISIBILITIES.* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 CWG map.. probably one of the bigger divergences from NWS I can remember http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/15/update-on-the-snow-that-almost-nobody-wants-first-call-map-and-timeline/ I think that's a good map... though I would increase the bust potential beltway and north from 15 to about 40%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Afternoon LWX disco from 318 pm .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY BEFOREEMERGING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC HIGHPRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE SURFACERIDGE AXIS WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...SUPPLYING PLENTYOF COLD AIR.WARM AND MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OVERRUN LOW-LEVELCOLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FROMSOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THEREMAY BE JUST ENOUGH WARM AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SUNDAY FORPRECIPITATION TO START OFF AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. LITTLE SNOWACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VALLEYS ANDMETROPOLITAN AREAS DUE TO THE WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE.HOWEVER...THAT WARM LAYER SHOULD BE ERODED FROM WET-BULB ANDDYNAMICAL COOLING SUNDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...ANY MIXEDPRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW FALLSACROSS OUR CWA BECAUSE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN LITTLE SNOW ANDSIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL LIKELY SET UP NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.THEREFORE...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE BUT THECERTAINTY FOR SIGNIFICANT INCREASES FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THEWASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THEPOTOMAC HIGHLANDS. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THEAREA...BUT A WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEYINTO THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WHERE CERTAINTY FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW ISHIGHEST.SFC HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY...ANDOVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WEDGE OF COLD AIRACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH THIS TIME.THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE ALREADY WELL OFF HATTERAS MONDAY MORNING ANDBE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH AND PRESENCEOF A COLD AIR WEDGE WILL MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND SLOW THE TAPERING OFFOF SNOW. LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ESSENTIALLY THROUGHTHE MORNING AND TAPER OFF COMPLETELY OR TO FLURRIES THROUGH MIDDAY.ADDITIONAL ACCUM OF AROUND AN INCH FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER12Z WHERE FORCING IS BEST. A FEW TENTHS TO HALF INCH FOR NRN HALF...DEPENDS ON WHERE THE BACK EDGE IS. HEADLINES CONTINUE UNTIL 2PM ANDAS USUAL WILL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED EARLY...PARTICULARLYFROM THE NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Kind of surprised NWS is going 4-6" for the DC metro. DCA didn't even get warning criteria on March 3. Not to sound overly cynical, but it somehow would not surprise me if they don't get all that close to warning criteria in this event either (while several places nearby do get 5"+). That said, I can understand the watch issuance, though a bit surprised they didn't wait until later. Lots of uncertainty, especially with the cutoff gradient. I suppose the thinking is they could later issue an advisory or warning where appropriate later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Verification is done on every single storm. It's a policy for all offices correct me if i'm wrong, but those statistics are held pretty tight to the vest by the NWS and most are never available for public consumption -- a long standing issue i've noticed with NWS leadership. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Four inches is my target. I am mostly disinterested in snow this time of year, but for number padding purposes, 4" will get me above 3 feet for the winter, so what the heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 New Day 1 WPC Snow Prob Map has extreme SW corner of LWX CWA nearly in 40% chance of 4"+ by 8pm Sunday New Day 2 WPC Snow Prob Maps have: 70% chance of 4"+ DCA south (40% up to M/D line) 40% chance of 8"+ DCA south (10% up to M/D line) 10% chance of 12"+ DCA south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 New Day 1 WPC Snow Prob Map has extreme SW corner of LWX CWA nearly in 40% chance of 4"+ by 8pm Sunday New Day 2 WPC Snow Prob Maps have: 70% chance of 4"+ DCA south (40% up to M/D line) 40% chance of 8"+ DCA south (10% up to M/D line) 10% chance of 12"+ DCA south Pretty bullish. These are human generated, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Pretty bullish. These are human generated, correct? they look like they match up somewhat with SREF, which is still insanely "bullish" (and uncertain)Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 349 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 MDZ021>025-VAZ099-160400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.140317T0000Z-140317T1800Z/ DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES- ACCOMACK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD... PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY...CHINCOTEAGUE... WALLOPS ISLAND...MELFA 349 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND ACCOMACK COUNTY VIRGINIA. * HAZARDS: SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS: THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. * TIMING: SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL MAY BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 349 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 VAZ060-067-068-070>078-082>086-160400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.140317T0000Z-140317T1800Z/ PRINCE EDWARD-NOTTOWAY-AMELIA-CHESTERFIELD-HENRICO-KING WILLIAM- KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-NORTHUMBERLAND- LANCASTER-CHARLES CITY-NEW KENT-GLOUCESTER-MIDDLESEX-MATHEWS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FARMVILLE...CREWE...COLONIAL HEIGHTS... RICHMOND...TAPPAHANNOCK 349 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * AREAS AFFECTED: CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA * HAZARDS: SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS: THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. * TIMING: SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL MAY BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 349 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 VAZ048-049-061>064-069-160400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.140316T2100Z-140317T1800Z/ FLUVANNA-LOUISA-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-POWHATAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...GOOCHLAND...ASHLAND 349 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * AREAS AFFECTED: CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. * HAZARDS: PRIMARILY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: THE POTENTIAL FOR 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. * TIMING: LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS: ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL MAY BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgillesp Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 correct me if i'm wrong, but those statistics are held pretty tight to the vest by the NWS and most are never available for public consumption -- a long standing issue i've noticed with NWS leadership. Can't we FOIA them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18z NAM rolling in... so far looks further north through 24h at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Found this interesting from the Mount Holly AFD: DESPITE A STRONGER HIGH AND MOST OF THE MDLS KEEPING THEIR SRNPRECIP SHIELD, THE GFS HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT NWD SHIFT WITH ITS15/12Z RUN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO ITS HIGHER QPF AND FORCING AT700 MB, BUT IS SUSPICIOUS NONETHELESS AND IS BEING IGNORED FORTHIS FCST. Don't hug the GFS I guess lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18Z.NAm gets precip up here. Last two runs of this model did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18z NAM basically flurries DC north through midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Sim radar at 35 hours looks nice....precip shifted north through 36 hours....and sim radar says 30 dbz for DC/BWI most of maryland at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NAM is going to be north. So starting to come to a solution now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 You could early on @ h5 that it would be further north. 850lp more favorable as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yeah. Better precip is more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The precip shield has expanded. It a good run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18z NAM basically flurries DC north through midnight "Flurries"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hour 39 goes BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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