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Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event II


stormtracker

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GFS looks pretty crappy. I think the NAM is more wrong than right at least in lower elevations. If anyone's going to overperform it's hilltops that are reaching freezing early. Nice to see snow over rain to start but white rain is the same thing in the end around here.

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Looks like most guidance has the 'good stuff' shutting off around 3-4am, if not sooner. If that's the case, Id be surprised if there were many totals > 5-6.

That's approximately 6-8 hours of "good stuff", plus anything else after 4am accumulates till the sun gains strength (9am give or take).

I disagree, I see 5-6" totals being quite common for most locales outside the city.

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I hope you are right. 0Z NAM sim radar does want to keep a solid band over the area until the middle of the night, so we'll see.....

That's approximately 6-8 hours of "good stuff", plus anything else after 4am accumulates till the sun gains strength (9am give or take).

I disagree, I see 5-6" totals being quite common for most locales outside the city.

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Just for the record...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

955 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-WVZ505-506-171000-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140317T1800Z/

AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-

EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...

CHARLOTTESVILLE...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN

955 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG

AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS

EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY

DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S LATE THIS

EVENING AND INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY MONDAY

MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW COVERED AND

SLIPPERY...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE

MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

955 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-052>055-057-171000-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140317T1800Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-

PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...

BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...

MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH

955 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN LOWER

SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS

EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES IN LOWER

SOUTHERN MARYLAND. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY DURING

THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S THIS EVENING...FALLING

INTO THE MIDDLE 20S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE

LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY THROUGHOUT

THE NIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT

THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY.

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

955 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

VAZ027>031-039-040-050-051-056-501-502-WVZ050-053-055-501-502-

171000-

/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140317T1800Z/

SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-

ORANGE-CULPEPER-SPOTSYLVANIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

HAMPSHIRE-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON...

CULPEPER...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...CHARLES TOWN...

MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG

955 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS

EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF MONDAY

DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S THIS EVENING...FALLING

INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY

IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 30S

ELSEWHERE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY

THROUGH THE NIGHT...LEADING TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS

THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY.

&&

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

1023 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

MDZ021>025-171030-

/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140317T2100Z/

DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD...

PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY

1023 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED: THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

* HAZARDS: SNOW AND SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. HIGHEST AMOUNTS

OVER DORCHESTER COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST

OVER SOMERSET AND WORCESTER COUNTIES TO THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

* TEMPERATURES: LOW FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS: NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE

COAST...15 TO 25 TO GUSTS TO 35 MPH INLAND.

* TIMING: TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL

WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH

ON MONDAY.

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

1023 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

VAZ072>078-085-171030-

/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140317T2100Z/

KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND-

NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-MIDDLESEX-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TAPPAHANNOCK

1023 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED: VIRGINIA NORTHERN NECK

* HAZARDS: SNOW AND SLEET. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. LIGHT ICE

ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES: LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS: NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH...LOCALLY

HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE BAY AND RIVERS.

* TIMING: TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL

WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING

RUSH ON MONDAY.

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

1023 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

VAZ048-049-061>064-069-171030-

/O.CON.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140317T2100Z/

FLUVANNA-LOUISA-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-POWHATAN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...GOOCHLAND...ASHLAND

1023 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED: CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT.

* HAZARDS: PRIMARILY SNOW. MIXED WITH SLEET. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN

ALSO POSSIBLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...HIGHEST

AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISA AND CAROLINE

COUNTIES. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

* TEMPERATURES: LOWS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.

* WINDS: NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

* TIMING: TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL

WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING

RUSH ON MONDAY.

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV

1014 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>008-013>018-027>030-037>040-046-

047-171015-

/O.CON.KRLX.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140317T1500Z/

GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-

MASON-JACKSON WV-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-CLAY-

BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-

RANDOLPH-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLATWOODS...RUSSELL...RACELAND...

GRAYSON...OLIVE HILL...ASHLAND...LOUISA...GALLIPOLIS...IRONTON...

SOUTH POINT...KENOVA...CEREDO...WAYNE...HUNTINGTON...

POINT PLEASANT...NEW HAVEN...RAVENSWOOD...RIPLEY...HARTS...

ALUM CREEK...HAMLIN...WEST HAMLIN...TEAYS VALLEY...HURRICANE...

CHARLESTON...SOUTH CHARLESTON...SPENCER...ELIZABETH...

GRANTSVILLE...CLAY...SUTTON...GASSAWAY...BURNSVILLE...GLENVILLE...

WESTON...SUMMERSVILLE...RICHWOOD...CRAIGSVILLE...COWEN...

BUCKHANNON...PHILIPPI...BELINGTON...MARLINTON...ELKINS

1014 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT

MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PARTS OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS...PARTS OF

SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.

PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. IN

ADDITION...DUE TO THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...DOWNED

TREE LIMBS OR EVEN POWER DISRUPTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

950 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ016>018-020-026-027-171000-

/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140317T1600Z/

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-OCEAN-

COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...

PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...JACKSON...

LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST

950 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CECIL AND KENT COUNTIES IN MARYLAND...NEW CASTLE

COUNTY IN DELAWARE AND THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SALEM...

GLOUCESTER...CAMDEN...OCEAN...AND SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON.

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW IS FORECAST TO BACK TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE

AND THE DELAWARE RIVER OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO

CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHEN IT WILL FALL AT ITS HEAVIEST. THE

ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD END ON MONDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MIGHT FALL MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS

OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

950 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>025-171000-

/O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140317T1600Z/

KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-

CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-

COASTAL ATLANTIC-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...

CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...

CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY

950 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE MARYLAND COUNTIES OF QUEEN ANNE`S...TALBOT AND

CAROLINE...THE DELAWARE COUNTIES OF KENT AND SUSSEX...AND

CUMBERLAND...CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES, HIGHEST

NEAR DELAWARE BAY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AND BECOME MODERATE TO

HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL

RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD END BY NOON ON MONDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE

ATLANTIC COAST.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS

OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA

812 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...LATE SEASON WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ALABAMA TONIGHT...TO ALONG THE

NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD CANADIAN AIR

WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF

PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE

EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.

VAZ018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-WVZ043>045-171000-

/O.CON.KRNK.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140317T1800Z/

CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-

AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...

COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...

LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...LYNCHBURG...

APPOMATTOX...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...

RAINELLE

812 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM HINTON...TO UNION...

TO NEW CASTLE...TO AMHERST AND BUCKINGHAM.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF

INTERSTATE 64.

* TIMING...THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED

AND HAZARDOUS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S.

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