Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM gives me 0.55" by 2am, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Its almost as if NAM is saying that band is 1" p/h snows... DCA is 6" at 3am The NAM is a stone cold moisture assassin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 2" per hour rates in SOMD and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM still has an absolutely filthy cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Its almost as if NAM is saying that band is 1" p/h snows... DCA is 6" at 3am If you are on iwm, you can change the snowfall increment to 1-hr to see what the algorithm is spitting out hourly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM still has an absolutely filthy cutoff. Its basically the M/D line... if you are in MD you make it into the 2-3" zone... just north in PA zippo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If I could believe this, I'd stay up for it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If you are on iwm, you can change the snowfall increment to 1-hr to see what the algorithm is spitting out hourly. I just did... 1 to 1.5" p/h rates if you get in the band that the NAM predicts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM still has an absolutely filthy cutoff. The southern edge is even more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 4k 18z NAM temps as of 4pm are maybe a degree or two too cold but closer than I thought they'd be. Verbatim, 4k NAM gets DC below freezing between 1z and 2z (probably will be closer to 2z to 3z?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 heaviest snow, imho, will be north of the heaviest qpf east of the mts. where the NAM map shows heaviest snow b/c they will lose some of that qpf on the front end with rain or, maybe more importantly, white rain before accumulations begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 best model runs of the storm coming in hours before the event. Good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 heaviest snow, imho, will be north of the heaviest qpf east of the mts. where the NAM map shows heaviest snow b/c they will lose some of that qpf on the front end with rain or, maybe more importantly, white rain before accumulations begin I agree, and have come up with my final call numbers, which I'm feeling pretty confident about overall. My thinking is... DCA: 3.9" IAD: 5.5" BWI: 4.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 best model runs of the storm coming in hours before the event. Good sign Liked how the NAM looked for my neck of the woods around Baltimore over to you. Last minute ticks north are solid, especially without too much in the way of temperature concerns at this jucture. Thinking you will do solidly. (4-6" over there). Leesburg said 7, I hope hes right as that would bode well for the Baltimore/DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I agree, and have come up with my final call numbers, which I'm feeling pretty confident about overall. My thinking is... DCA: 3.9" IAD: 5.5" BWI: 4.2" Given recent trends, I might even be inclined to bump BWI up a bit over 5", but I think your numbers are good. Wouldn't be surprised at all (would any of us?) to see a nice band set up N/NW of the main area where the cold air is already in place. Those favored areas could get an inch or two before it really begins to accumulate in concrete central.....DCA/Crystal City/Arlington, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Given recent trends, I might even be inclined to bump BWI up a bit over 5", but I think your numbers are good. Wouldn't be surprised at all (would any of us?) to see a nice band set up N/NW of the main area where the cold air is already in place. Those favored areas could get an inch or two before it really begins to accumulate in concrete central.....DCA/Crystal City/Arlington, etc. Baltimore metro could do the slightest bit better than DC. Even in eastern Baltimore suburbs like my area, I feel like there is some upside in this one more so than downside. Sure the best bands could stay to my south, but I think this produces 3/3 amounts or a bit more. (For reference, received 3.5" in Dundalk with that one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 SREF plumes have the mean at 10+" for DCA. They always seem overdone, but typically pretty good if you cut them in half which would be about 5" at dca. Seems they like that band to set up from fredricksburg to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 best model runs of the storm coming in hours before the event. Good sign It's a good sign that the decent runs 24 hours ago will verify. Seems more often than not that the very short lead runs overdo it a bit. I still haven't changed my thoughts for days. I agree with other posts about areas north maximizing on less qpf. Could be the case where someone in Hoco will have the same snow totals as someone in Ffx but with 25% less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 For the most important 1/3 acre of real estate in the area...lol...I would be surprised to get less than 4 or more than 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanarus4u2 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Snowing in Reva, VA that Culpeper county, central VA right now but its not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Latest WPC Prob of greater than 8". Pretty large moderate risk area. That little high risk sliver on the Delmarva is pretty much over my house lol. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 At 5pm, GFS verbatim says my temp should be 3.7 C. It's now about 4.2 and falling. It will be interesting to see if we get below freezing by 8, as the GFS predicts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 From SPC....Mesoscale discussion on developing heavy snow... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0195.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Lol, that HPC probability map is hillarious. Looks like a moisture laden storm that will surely deliver for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 From SPC: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0328 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN WV INCLUDING THEPANHANDLE...CENTRAL/NRN VA...MUCH OF MD...DCCONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 162028Z - 170230ZSUMMARY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH RATES OF ONEINCH/HR DEVELOPING BY...AND ESPECIALLY BEYOND...02Z.DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LOWOVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. A DIFFUSE SFC LOW...CURRENTLY OVER NERNMS...WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY 02Z. RESULTING N/NELOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT VERY DRY AIR INTO THEDISCUSSION AREA...AND INITIALLY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHEREWILL COOL/SATURATE WITH TIME ALLOWING FOR SNOW TO BECOME THEDOMINANT P-TYPE...BECOMING WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONEACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING WITHIN CONFLUENT 700 MBFLOW...WITH DEFORMATION-INDUCED FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOPWITHIN THE 800 MB TO 700 MB LAYER. MESOSCALE BANDING WILL LIKELYPRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH/HR BY...AND ESPECIALLYBEYOND...02Z...BUNTING.. 03/16/2014ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18z RGEM ~17mm snow for DCA Meteogram -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemreg&run=18&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Good luck to all my Mid Atlantic snow lovers! Quite a winter for most of us on this entire board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18z RGEM ~17mm snow for DCA Meteogram -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemreg&run=18&var=prcp〈=en&map=us Almost 19mm it actually looks like. Nice run nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 4k 18z NAM temps as of 4pm are maybe a degree or two too cold but closer than I thought they'd be. Verbatim, 4k NAM gets DC below freezing between 1z and 2z (probably will be closer to 2z to 3z?). The diff b/w raw and MOS should usually be much smaller in the short term than a few days out. DCA is tracking right with MOS thus far. eta: actually, no.. warmer, but precip hasn't taken a toll yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18z GFS has DCA ~4-5 inches snow by 8am... cut back S MD and down by EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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