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Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event II

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted

Still a little worried about temperatures for Baltimore and DC area. Half of precipitation may be wasted on a mix or non accumulating snow. DC especially always takes longer to accumulate snowfall, hope this isn't the case and good luck everyone.

Thanks so much for your worry.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

This high is less suppressive, I think. I bet this is more north than 3/3. 

Well you see the latest trends. I dont see the Euro so just going by whats being passed on here. Almost game time, but i dont see any one area being favored with this event, even though most forecasts seem to have more snow south of Baltimore than north. Mountains will do better, everyone else should see a general 3-6 IMO.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Well you see the latest trends. I dont see the Euro so just going by whats being passed on here. Almost game time, but i dont see any one area being favored with this event, even though most forecasts seem to have more snow south of Baltimore than north. Mountains will do better, everyone else should see a general 3-6 IMO.

Very good point. I mentioned earlier that the precip trends on 3/3 were all bad. This is different.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted

Well you see the latest trends. I dont see the Euro so just going by whats being passed on here. Almost game time, but i dont see any one area being favored with this event, even though most forecasts seem to have more snow south of Baltimore than north. Mountains will do better, everyone else should see a general 3-6 IMO.

I'm sure there will still be a tight edge, but this really seems like the kind of event where Westminster and Parkton do really, really well. While DCA is 34 and struggling with moderate slop they have nice SN at 31 degrees. That's when the raw QPF output doesn't mean a whole lot.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

I'm sure there will still be a tight edge, but this really seems like the kind of event where Westminster and Parkton do really, really well. While DCA is 34 and struggling with moderate slop they have nice SN at 31 degrees. That's when the raw QPF output doesn't mean a whole lot.

 

agreed...you know the drill..even when the models were south I felt pretty good about you guys doing as well as inside the beltway...with the Leesburg crew doing the best....

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

I'm sure there will still be a tight edge, but this really seems like the kind of event where Westminster and Parkton do really, really well. While DCA is 34 and struggling with moderate slop they have nice SN at 31 degrees. That's when the raw QPF output doesn't mean a whole lot.

I agree for DC itself, but places out in the countryside will do fine, not just Westminster and Parkton. The fact that they may be a tad colder may make up for the lack of qpf up there, but probably not a case where that area sees more snow overall.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

wow. Mt Holly really north with size able accumulations. Looks right in step with LWX thinking.

at this point, I do not believe the heaviest snowfall will be farther south of DCA

I think the north trend continues (as much as it can at this point) and with the north trend comes a warm tongue in the mid levels that will taint the heavy precip in central VA

I could easily be wrong but that's my gut

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
309 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRACK SOUTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN LOW-LEVEL COLD AND DRY AIR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL NOT COMPLETELY PHASE...THE TROUGH HAS STRENGTHENED
ENOUGH TO BACK THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS
ALLOWED FOR HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
WARM AND MOIST AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF
COAST STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST
AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE LOW-LEVEL
COLD AND DRY AIR...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN FACT...SNOW HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE 40S ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT COLDER ALONG THE RIDGES. PRECIPITATION MAY START
OFF AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT THE THE WARM
LAYER WILL BE QUICKLY ERODED DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THEREFORE...ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL
SNOW ACROSS MOST AREAS AROUND SUNSET.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
WELL BELOW FREEZING DUE TO A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE ARCTIC HIGH
OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
AND LITTLE SNOWFALL WILL BE NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. THIS ADDS
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AREA.

ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MORNING FORECAST INCLUDE...BUMPING UP
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THINKING MOST AREAS WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE GRADIENT THAT SETS UP NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE BANDING ACROSS THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH COULD CAUSE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE WARNING
HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE AND THE
BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREA. THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
EVEN FARTHER NORTH TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP.

ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO TWEAK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN A BIT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND
RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS A BIT LONGER...AND THE DRY SLOT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS AS WELL...CAUSING SNOWFALL RATES
TO DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS STILL IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
DESPITE THE COLD TEMPS...THERE SHOULD BE SOME MELTING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

I thought the HRRR went out to 15 hours... mine seem to only go out to 12 hours.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t3&run_time=16+Mar+2014+-+15Z

 

They generally do.  What we have to remember is that the HRRR is not being run as a traditional operational model, so there is a higher likelihood of computer gliches or choices to conserve resources.  Later this summer the HRRR is being transitioned into the NCEP operational suite and we should get it faster and more reliably.  

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted

They generally do.  What we have to remember is that the HRRR is not being run as a traditional operational model, so there is a higher likelihood of computer gliches or choices to conserve resources.  Later this summer the HRRR is being transitioned into the NCEP operational suite and we should get it faster and more reliably.  

 

THanks

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The one thing I'm sort of worried a bit, is how this sort of stretches out when it gets near DC. What I mean is you don't want the band to look healthy moving in and then all of the sudden it sort of gets stretched out as the lift weakens and drier air works in from the north. I'm not saying it will happen...but it's something to keep in the back of your mind. Even the HRRR had a hint of this. Of course it could stretch out into one of those 10 mile wide bands that happens to give you good snows and then who cares..lol. Just saying.

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