Huffwx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It's always been like that. The more things change... On a different topic, Huff, with this anomalous snow event for mid-March, I've been meaning to ask something. I'm not as familiar with central/SW/SE Virginia climo (e.g., Richmond area, Lynchburg, etc.), but assuming this is on the order of ~4" for you (and many others), would this be about the latest such event there? I'd have to think it's on that "latest" list somewhere, it surely would be for the DC metro. Just thinking in a historical sort of context, that's partly why this event is so interesting. On the first topic, people need to phrase things better-- we cover a large area. I don't want a SW VA forum only-- it be 6 people. However, stating Looks bad for those NORTH of DC or south of CHO is better than just LOOKS bad. Helps people understand who can't see models but read board on their phone. We actually had 7 inches on Palm Sunday last year on that front vort. Our climate west here in LYH and ROA is quite a bit different than Richmond, but yeah-- Mid march makes it a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 12Z GFS north with the 0-850 line at 6 hrs vs. 6z at 12 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 12z GFS QPF naso much... cut back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 12Z GFS north with the 0-850 line at 6 hrs vs. 6z at 12 fwiw Love how NAM barely touches PA with 3" while GFS has 3" like in the 25% third of the state. Good for northern MD. Maybe RAP is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 On the first topic, people need to phrase things better-- we cover a large area. I don't want a SW VA forum only-- it be 6 people. However, stating Looks bad for those NORTH of DC or south of CHO is better than just LOOKS bad. Helps people understand who can't see models but read board on their phone. We actually had 7 inches on Palm Sunday last year on that front vort. Our climate west here in LYH and ROA is quite a bit different than Richmond, but yeah-- Mid march makes it a challenge. Thanks. And I agree, it's more informative to give some kind of areal coverage on what "looks bad", and why it does. There are many here who do add that information, e.g., "M/D line has a nasty cutoff, max is south of DC", which gives you a lot more than "it looks bad!" As for the climo, yeah, it's getting hard anywhere in mid-March except for north of our region. I'd guess LYH/ROA can do a fair bit better than RIC, maybe being closer to the mountains. That Palm Sunday event was the same one where I got 4" in the early morning hours the following day on Monday. Nice surprise! Getting several inches on St. Paddy's Day would be no small feat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS looks the same for DC...about 0.7"...about 0.25-0.3" wasted on the front end...about 0.35 - 0.4" as sticking snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RAP and HRRR were pretty bad with the initial changeover on 3/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM and GFS want to drag out falling snow into tomorrow PM vs. ending it by 10AM like runs from yesterday and before prefer it dump at night but I'll take it nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Up to 3.4" as the no way it's happening low end. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Up to 3.4" as the no way it's happening low end. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png That low number is crazy. I think its higher then any storm we've had this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Is the NWS graphic total snowfall or total accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Final call for DC, 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Final call for DC, 2-3" The GFS sure isn't very impressive. Your forecast and the CWg one right now looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Final call for DC, 2-3" That's like a 5th percentile chance.. sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The GFS sure isn't very impressive. Your forecast and the CWg one right now looks pretty good. Wes, The GFS's QPF progs after 03-06Z also show hints of that dry slot getting awfully close. You can already tell on national radar that the warm conveyor belt and cold conveyor belts are getting stretched apart. Let's hope we don't have a split and (thus) dry slottage east of the mountains -- although that's always a concern with these lower lattitude Miller B's. The surface low still has to jump the Appalachians -- this time from the lower TN Valley to off the lower mid Atlantic coast vs. the more typical OH Valley to off the VA Capes Miller B. Either way, a lot of the CCB/comma head energy has to cross the mountains, and we've seen squirrely things happen with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Wes, The GFS's QPF progs after 03-06Z also show hints of that dry slot getting awfully close. You can already tell on national radar that the warm conveyor belt and cold conveyor belts are getting stretched apart. Let's hope we don't have a split and (thus) dry slottage east of the mountains -- although that's always a concern with these lower lattitude Miller B's. The surface low still has to jump the Appalachians -- this time from the lower TN Valley to off the lower mid Atlantic coast vs. the more typical OH Valley to off the VA Capes Miller B. Either way, a lot of the CCB/comma head energy has to cross the mountains, and we've seen squirrely things happen with that. The latest ebing March 3rd. I like 2-4m across the area but think the CWG 1-4 is fine because of DCA and how hard it is to get them cool once they get warm. The GFS doesn't show any good hints that a band of S+ will hold for several hours. I think any heavy band would be pretty short-lived with light to moderate snow being the dominant intensity. Of course, I've been wrong before so we won't know for sure until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The latest ebing March 3rd. I like 2-4m across the area but think the CWG 1-4 is fine because of DCA and how hard it is to get them cool once they get warm. The GFS doesn't show any good hints that a band of S+ will hold for several hours. I think any heavy band would be pretty short-lived with light to moderate snow being the dominant intensity. Of course, I've been wrong before so we won't know for sure until tomorrow. Yeah, Wes, CWG's call seems much better. I think if we hadn't had the 3/3 storm we would be a lot more bullish. I am surprised at the NWS truly for both of these storms. A more strung out system with iffy starting temps seems more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Final call for DC, 2-3" I could see something like 3.2" at my place, 2.8" over by you, and 1.9" at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yeah, Wes, CWG's call seems much better. I think if we hadn't had the 3/3 storm we would be a lot more bullish. I am surprised at the NWS truly for both of these storms. A more strung out system with iffy starting temps seems more likely. It's not just LWX being bullish. Chuck Bell of NBC 4 posted the NBC 4 DC snowfall graphic. It showed 3 to 6 from just north of Baltimore through DC into northern Virginia. With "6+" edging into a good chunk of Fairfax County. You can see the map here, http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Snow-Looks-Likely-for-Sunday-Night-Monday-Morning-250422081.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yeah, Wes, CWG's call seems much better. I think if we hadn't had the 3/3 storm we would be a lot more bullish. I am surprised at the NWS truly for both of these storms. A more strung out system with iffy starting temps seems more likely. MY comment on the storm was not directed at the NWS forecast. They generally do a good job and I'm a fan of their work. While I favor less accumulations then they do, they could end up being right. We won't knwo for sure until tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It's not just LWX being bullish. Chuck Bell of NBC 4 posted the NBC 4 DC snowfall graphic. It showed 3 to 6 from just north of Baltimore through DC into northern Virginia. With "6+" edging into a good chunk of Fairfax County. You can see the map here, http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Snow-Looks-Likely-for-Sunday-Night-Monday-Morning-250422081.html It seems that people want to predict an over performer. There are things stacked against that from happening. The push of the PV. (I'd hate to say it but...) the time of year, the warm temps we've had recently, dry slot question marks, differences in changeover times, and the fact that the models still don't fully agree. (They change details on every run). Best to be conservative. It's why I like CWG's call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 MY comment on the storm was not directed at the NWS forecast. They generally do a good job and I'm a fan of their work. While I favor less accumulations then they do, they could end up being right. We won't knwo for sure until tomorrow morning. I apologize if I made it seem as if you were. I was really reacting to their initial call of 4-6 for the area when there was little support for it at the time. You're right, they are the pros and I am merely a snow weenie. They have a better shot at being right than me. But, this is a weather forum and a discussion should take place, especially in terms of understanding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It seems that people want to predict an over performer. There are things stacked against that from happening. The push of the PV. (I'd hate to say it but...) the time of year, the warm temps we've had recently, dry slot question marks, differences in changeover times, and the fact that the models still don't fully agree. (They change details on every run). Best to be conservative. It's why I like CWG's call. I think 2 to 4 is a reasonable guess, for the reasons Wes stated. Only problem i have with CWG map is it says 1 to 4, but also a 25 percent of chance of 4 to 8. To average person, that almost sounds like a forecast of 1 to 8. And taken verbatim, its not much different than LWX saying 3 to 6, except harder for CWG to bust high or low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 As much as I respect LWX, something seems seriously off when their graphics are telling us that this scenario... is equally likely as this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think 2 to 4 is a reasonable guess, for the reasons Wes stated. Only problem i have with CWG map is it says 1 to 4, but also a 25 percent of chance of 4 to 8. To average person, that almost sounds like a forecast of 1 to 8. And taken verbatim, its not much different than LWX saying 3 to 6, except harder for CWG to bust high or low. Adding the percentages of higher or lower is confusing for some. I get the CYA aspect of it but make the call and stick with it. Don't put out additional numbers which just confuse your message. IMO, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WUSA DC snowfall map has 2 to 4 inches from northern Baltimore County into northern half of Washington DC. Southern half of DC into Northern Virginia is 4 to 6 inches. 6 to 8 inch swath in the Shenandoah Valley, with one little finger that extends east to include Fredericksburg Virginia and a small part of Prince William County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Not a fan of the RAP, but it looks good for my area. Its wrong as often as it is right. Still think a general 2-5 inches looks good for most. Dew points are low so temps should fall off fairly quickly as the heavier precip arrives, slower in the urban heat island of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Not a fan of the RAP, but it looks good for my area. Its wrong as often as it is right. Still think a general 2-5 inches looks good for most. Dew points are low so temps should fall off fairly quickly as the heavier precip arrives, slower in the urban heat island of course. It sagged a bit south from 15Z, but still at range so hard to read much into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The concern was logged yesterday. He doesn't control the maps and is just an employee. My guess is he'll just stop posting instead.Exactly and we don't want that. Why doesn't everyone just leave him alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.