Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Not sure how reliable the RUC is, but it's way north of everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Final call. Time to ride with it. Not bad, seems as reasonable as anything. Looks like you expanded the 4-6" zone a little from what you had last night (could be wrong, I'm too lazy to go back several pages and check, haha!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Not bad, seems as reasonable as anything. Looks like you expanded the 4-6" zone a little from what you had last night (could be wrong, I'm too lazy to go back several pages and check, haha!). Correct, a slight north bump and added 6-8" over favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM has main shield of snow exiting the DC area around hour 21 but leaves flurries/light snow around. At that point, we are around 6 inches. Then at hour 25, brings in light/moderate snow on back-end, and we get up to 7-9 inches before it is done, around hour 30 or so. Obviously overdone with snow totals but supports 2-4 in cities. I do like that it appears to keep us in at least some light snow/flurries throughout the day tomorrow. That might at least keep it looking pretty (Bob Chill calls this "snow TV", appropriately). GFS is similar in that regard I believe. I'm hopeful for something like what I got on March 25 last year, maybe something more if we're lucky. But this time, actually have it stick around through the day (the event last year was almost gone by the end of the day, but was still nice!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm done. I'm moving this sh*t to banter and cracking heads. I can't take this anymore. I'm about to go on full tilt. Stay on topic..that goes for myself too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Less than 12 hours from onset. This thread should be locked. Time to let the chips fall. The range of outcome is tightly packed in the envelope. Nothing has changed overall for 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 you must be a magician if you have access to a 1-hr GFS precip map -- can you post it here, we'd all like to see it? ...just divide the 6-h GFS output assuming a linear trend through that time and....oh, well, never mind!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm done. I'm moving this sh*t to banter and cracking heads. I can't take this anymore. I'm about to go on full tilt. Stay on topic..that goes for myself too.... Move it if you must. But can I do a :lol: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 HRRR is just getting into range of the onset of the storm. It looks weak, disconnecting the head from the gulf moisture feed just before it reaches us and thus disrupting the QPF for us. I can only assume the next few hours of HRRR would continue to show very little accumulation for us. I'm beginning to fear the chaos isn't so random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 ...Two minds with but a single thought, didn't mean to post over yours with the same thing! You were too gentle. He needed to be shouted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm done. I'm moving this sh*t to banter and cracking heads. I can't take this anymore. I'm about to go on full tilt. Stay on topic..that goes for myself too.... Actually, in all seriousness, is there going to be a "storm mode" for this one? I don't think there was for the March 3 event, which kind of surprised me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Less than 12 hours from onset. This thread should be locked. Time to let the chips fall. The range of outcome is tightly packed in the envelope. Nothing has changed overall for 24 hours This thread is a disaster. It's locked. Head to the obs thread and folks, keep it on topic and post the correct information. If you see your posts disappear, that's a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Actually, scrap that...let's do model discussion still in here. At least we can filter the garbage and keep the obs thread clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 More "on topic", the NAM isn't quite as crazy with the second low associated with the ULL. No surprise, I'm sure. It does get some precip here, surface temps are close/marginal. 850s, not sure, for some reason those plots are lagging behind the surface ones. But at 60-h, they're above freezing at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Actually, scrap that...let's do model discussion still in here. At least we can filter the garbage and keep the obs thread clean. What kind of bird was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM ditching the end of run garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So...I'm going to backpedel. 12z HRRR isn't showing what I was seeing anymore. The 12z is very different from the 9z and 10z runs (11z was never available), and looks like a robust storm. I think I'm hitting the limit of the model's accuracy - a 15 hr model at 14-15hr...accuracy probably suffers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM ditching the end of run garbage I told you that you couldn't rely heavily on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 What kind of bird was it? Albatross? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RGEM...not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM ditching the end of run garbage Yes, it did, at least partly. Still had something going up the coast a bit and out to sea which brought some precip here, but nothing like the great flood look it had before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM ditching the end of run garbage NOi surprise. It's soundings also make me think we might again see funny looking flakes rather than nice big dendritic aggregates. Theres a pretty deep layer with temps warmer than -10C way up past 700mb. I'll be interested in hearing obs to see if I'm correct or blowing smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 4k NAM is nice. 0.1" falls by 3z (probably non-accumulating snow). ~0.5" falls between 3z and 12z. ~0.75" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Reference NAM soundings for Wes's post: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.1182&sounding.lon=-77.0689&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=12&fhour=15¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false (hr 15, about onset of precip) Very warm 850mb, around -2 to -3C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 This thread is a disaster. It's locked. Head to the obs thread and folks, keep it on topic and post the correct information. If you see your posts disappear, that's a warning. I get sick of the "it looks bad for us" comments-- "WE" as in this forum covers a large area. It's all out IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NOi surprise. It's soundings also make me think we might again see funny looking flakes rather than nice big dendritic aggregates. Theres a pretty deep layer with temps warmer than -10C way up past 700mb. I'll be interested in hearing obs to see if I'm correct or blowing smoke.I haven't looked close but based just on Mar 3 my guess is you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Reference NAM soundings for Wes's post: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.1182&sounding.lon=-77.0689&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=12&fhour=15¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false (hr 15, about onset of precip) Very warm 850mb, around -2 to -3C. Please stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RAP has snow into the Winchester area by 10. Into DC by 11. It also has precip further north fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I get sick of the "it looks bad for us" comments-- "WE" as in this forum covers a large area. It's all out IMBY. It's always been like that. The more things change... On a different topic, Huff, with this anomalous snow event for mid-March, I've been meaning to ask something. I'm not as familiar with central/SW/SE Virginia climo (e.g., Richmond area, Lynchburg, etc.), but assuming this is on the order of ~4" for you (and many others), would this be about the latest such event there? I'd have to think it's on that "latest" list somewhere, it surely would be for the DC metro. Just thinking in a historical sort of context, that's partly why this event is so interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RAP has snow into the Winchester area by 10. Into DC by 11. It also has precip further north fwiw. 14z RAP has snow a bit earlier than that... looks like 8pm IF it were to be believed for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.