Scraff Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 As for the SREFs coming north, yes a tad. Not sure if it means anything. Looking at snow plume means on the latest run, Salisbury is down from 10 to 6. DC, BWI to Dover and north, are now up in the 10-12 range, up quite a bit from previous runs esp areas to the north, like Hagerstown to Wilmington. 10-12?? How useful / accurate are the SREFs at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So I have a question: What is NAM seeing that is causing that 2nd rain storm Monday night/Tuesday that everyone is referring to as a hallucination? It's now been consistently there for 4 runs, but only on the NAM. How is NAM consistently that far off of every other guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 As for the SREFs coming north, yes a tad. Not sure if it means anything. Looking at snow plume means on the latest run, Salisbury is down from 10 to 6. DC, BWI to Dover and north, are now up in the 10-12 range, up quite a bit from previous runs esp areas to the north, like Hagerstown to Wilmington. The 1/2" contour moved about 40-50 miles north. More than just a tad in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Temps will be fine outside the city. I don't see much of an issue of wasted QPF there. Wetbulbing will really chill it off near sunset. Yeah the dew point at BWI is 19 right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think the NAM is actually a tad drier up north. Looks similar otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 To my eyes NAM looks drier. It appears to be more in line with other guidance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Pulling moisture in from the Gulf and Atlantic. Should be juiced pretty good. Its fast moving, and a relatively weak wave. And like the last event, more of a cold air undercutting the mild air scenario. Not saying its a dried up POS. It should be a nice moderate 4-6 inch event for many. Just saying all the worrying over temps is less justified than the moisture, duration, and northern cutoff issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 there's going to be a big nasty dry slot that will set up in central/sourthern VA again and hopefully won't make it all the way to DC. Hope the stronger that projected convection in southern Alabama doesn't rob us of some qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 10-12?? How useful / accurate are the SREFs at this points sorry I don't believe 10-12in no way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 To my eyes NAM looks drier. It appears to be more in line with other guidance now. Definitely looks drier for central/northern MD but looks about the same for DC. Will be easier for someone with the nice maps to decide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 10-12?? How useful / accurate are the SREFs at this point? You never take them verbatim. But they are useful for picking up trends. No one is getting a foot, except maybe someplace in the hills of western VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 0.5" from 3z to 9z. Bump down a bit for NAM wet bias and give us an 8:1 ratio, and it looks like a nice 2-4" snowfall like many have been saying all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The northern cutoff on the NAM is criminal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks like about .1" falls before 3z on the new NAM. ~0.75 falls by 12z (0.65ish from 3z to 12z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Its fast moving, and a relatively weak wave. And like the last event, more of a cold air undercutting the mild air scenario. Not saying its a dried up POS. It should be a nice moderate 4-6 inch event for many. Just saying all the worrying over temps is less justified than the moisture, duration, and northern cutoff issues. Yeah looking at the EURO temps and seeing as how this is after dark I'm not too worried about wastage. We have some wiggle room according to the EURO, it's below freezing before the precip even starts. I think like you're saying it's more going to be about lack of really heavy banding. But hey, I'll take what I can get on St Patty's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The 1/2" contour moved about 40-50 miles north. More than just a tad in my book. Whatever...splitting hairs with semantics. Did you not get the gist of what I said in that post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The northern cutoff on the NAM is criminal. Yeah kind of the point I was trying to make. For those who want to worry about something, temps are not on the top of the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM also moves out the main shield of snow and then develops the back end shield of light to moderate snow, around hours 26-30, and it drops another 1-2 inches on the area... gets DC in the 7-9 inch range it looks like. Definitely supports 2-4 inches in the cities, imo. Overall, another solid run, if you believe/trust the NAM at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM also moves out the main shield of snow and then develops the back end shield of light to moderate snow, around hours 26-30, and it drops another 1-2 inches on the area... gets DC in the 7-9 inch range it looks like. Definitely supports 2-4 inches in the cities, imo. Overall, another solid run, if you believe/trust the NAM at this range. If you believe the NAM you should smile if you live I-66 and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RAP is looking like the northern areas get a decent amount of snow; it's not fringing them like the NAM. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=rap_jet&domain=conus&run_time=16+Mar+2014+-+11Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nam looks great. Best run yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RAP looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Final call. Time to ride with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Once again, I thought the nam was terrible just reading this thread from my phone and not loading it up It's great if you are in central or southern MD. Northern MD is a bit dry and the cutoff ends about the mason-dixon line, with only light stuff north of that. It's great if you are not too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Once again, I thought the nam was terrible just reading this thread from my phone and not loading it up I am mobile. That disco sounds like storm cancel. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It's all about impacts, timing,... It's not just for the public... Airlines, emergency management etc. 3-6 at the right time can really mess stuff up here. I know I'm responding to a relatively "old" post, but this caught my eye and I couldn't agree more! Early morning snow, even if it's a small amount, can screw things up around here in the DC metro. Perfect example was the ~2" we got early on Feb. 26. It wasn't that bad, and the snow was lightening up by the time I was taking our daughter to school. I was surprised they didn't have a 2 hour delay which, despite all the jokes about "whimpiness", would have been very appropriate in this case. The side roads were a disaster and even the main roads were iffy. It was not fun to drive, especially on some of the slightly hillier areas that became ultra slick from other cars packing the snow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I am mobile. That disco sounds like storm cancel. Sent from my iPhone It still supports 2-4 for you and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It still supports 2-4 for you and me. Thanks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Final call. Time to ride with it. Good map. I would expand your 4-6 area a bit further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM has main shield of snow exiting the DC area around hour 21 but leaves flurries/light snow around. At that point, we are around 6 inches. Then at hour 25, brings in light/moderate snow on back-end, and we get up to 7-9 inches before it is done, around hour 30 or so. Obviously overdone with snow totals but supports 2-4 in cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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