ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I mean the point of winter storm warnings in general. I guess I just don't see the benefit of them for such low thresholds. It's all about impacts, timing,... It's not just for the public... Airlines, emergency management etc. 3-6 at the right time can really mess stuff up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 All but one storm this winter had half the snow on hard surfaces than on my deck. I don't expect anything different tonight. I'm guessing 2-3" on the deck, wet on roads. Already 40 in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Temps will certainly be an issue for many. As Matt, Wes and some mets are pointing out, there are some red flags and should not be discounted It could be that the typically favored N&W areas, with less qpf but better temps/earlier changeover, get as much as the southern areas that are expected to get much better qpf -- everybody ends up with 3 - 5" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The SREF bumped north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The SREF bumped north. I'm thinking 12Z today will bring heavy stuff to DCA/BWI but temps will now be a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Radar to the south is looking really good this morning. My temps look fine and hopefully we get some cloud cover to start moving in before noon (can see some already to the south). Interested to see how the models look at 12z today --- EURO was a good run last night --- obviously, the later the precip moves in tonight, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The problem with temps is more about snow not sticking, rather then the precipitation type, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 DC now in 1"+ line on the SREFs. A bump north from the last run. As others have said on here and as I said last night after the Euro, I think surface temps will be an issue here to verify warning level snowfall. We need the heavy stuff to hold off until after midnight since I don't think we will accumulate before then. We've seen how this played out many times before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The problem with temps is more about snow not sticking, rather then the precipitation type, correct? 850s have been OK on the runs. I could just see DCA stuck at 34 for hours and hours wasting QPF on moderate wet snow that doesn't stick well. That's when the gang in northern MD/southern PA who get less QPF (and supposedly "don't want the snow" -- yeah right) get more snow accumulation because of colder temps. That's also why I'd be really wary of any major accumulation forecasts for south and east of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Obs thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43215-st-paddys-day-storm-obs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 DC now in 1"+ line on the SREFs. A bump north from the last run. As others have said on here and as I said last night after the Euro, I think surface temps will be an issue here to verify warning level snowfall. We need the heavy stuff to hold off until after midnight since I don't think we will accumulate before then. We've seen how this played out many times before. Good points especially for DC itself...out here in Loudoun...Ashburn, Leesburg etc, I have seen it stick quickly at night even after warm March day temps. Times I thought it wouldn't happen it did when precip was moderate to heavy. Sometimes it's amazing how fast it cools off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 DC now in 1"+ line on the SREFs. A bump north from the last run. As others have said on here and as I said last night after the Euro, I think surface temps will be an issue here to verify warning level snowfall. We need the heavy stuff to hold off until after midnight since I don't think we will accumulate before then. We've seen how this played out many times before. Agreed. My expectations aren't huge --- 2/3 inches is fine for me, considering we are in mid-March. It will all melt away fast anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks like the latest average of the GFS, NAM, GGEM, RGEM, UKMET, and Euro gives Towson about 0.4". The spread has tightened since last night, with the Euro coming up (from what I understand) and the UK and Canadian models coming down. US models down slightly. Surface temperatures here probably won't be as much of an issue as in DC -- MOS has KMTN below freezing at 03z, and we're about 400 feet higher in elevation. GFS soundings have us at -2.3C at 00z and -3.7C at 03z verbatim. I'd guess 2-5" is a good guess now for this area as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The SREF bumped north. That is a pretty good jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 My final map...for the record this was made 20 hours ago before the NWS warning and advisories...I think evap cooling will do enough for us that by 11pm-midnight we start getting accumulations...most accumulation between 1am-5am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 850s have been OK on the runs. I could just see DCA stuck at 34 for hours and hours wasting QPF on moderate wet snow that doesn't stick well. That's when the gang in northern MD/southern PA who get less QPF (and supposedly "don't want the snow" -- yeah right) get more snow accumulation because of colder temps. That's also why I'd be really wary of any major accumulation forecasts for south and east of DC. I said this awhile back...the obs thread will be telling when the NW crew is talking about sticking "already" while the "jackpot" areas to the south are reporting white rain and puddles. I know Matt and Ian have been trying to set expectations but some will still be disappointed. I wish everyone luck though....Richmond jackpot for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I guess I am the only one not concerned about temps. Was just outside, definitely a different feel out there than yesterday. Its chilly, 39 with a stiff north breeze in full sun. I would be more concerned with moisture than temps. This is not going to be a really juicy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I guess I am the only one not concerned about temps. Was just outside, definitely a different feel out there than yesterday. Its chilly, 39 with a stiff north breeze in full sun. I would be more concerned with moisture than temps. This is not going to be a really juicy storm. Looks pretty damn juicy to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Temps will be fine outside the city. I don't see much of an issue of wasted QPF there. Wetbulbing will really chill it off near sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Obv a little early still for HRRR but I like the projected radar later.. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Obv a little early still for HRRR but I like the projected radar later.. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Gotta love the dark greens over Carroll county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Gotta love the dark greens over Carroll county Also puts the heaviest stuff over DC twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Gotta love the dark greens over Carroll county That's what makes it almost believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 New NAM is a little slower with the precip, which is good, also tightening that northern gradient again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 As for the SREFs coming north, yes a tad. Not sure if it means anything. Looking at snow plume means on the latest run, Salisbury is down from 10 to 6. DC, BWI to Dover and north, are now up in the 10-12 range, up quite a bit from previous runs esp areas to the north, like Hagerstown to Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Good points especially for DC itself...out here in Loudoun...Ashburn, Leesburg etc, I have seen it stick quickly at night even after warm March day temps. Times I thought it wouldn't happen it did when precip was moderate to heavy. Sometimes it's amazing how fast it cools off. Yeah, outside of DC is definitely a different story, especially out near you. We should get good rates overnight...which is the key here I think. Agreed. My expectations aren't huge --- 2/3 inches is fine for me, considering we are in mid-March. It will all melt away fast anyway. Yea, 2-4" is a good bet right now for the city given the surface temp issues at onset. I'd rather gamble with a lot of QPF overnight than colder but drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Looks pretty damn juicy to me... So did 3/3, and we ended up with half of what was forecast. Similar set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I guess I am the only one not concerned about temps. Was just outside, definitely a different feel out there than yesterday. Its chilly, 39 with a stiff north breeze in full sun. I would be more concerned with moisture than temps. This is not going to be a really juicy storm. Pulling moisture in from the Gulf and Atlantic. Should be juiced pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Models were right with the dews dropping this morning. It's chilly outside with a stiff NE breeze. BWI was at 39/19 with winds from the NE at 10 last hour. And here's the link to current wet bulb temps to revisit later on. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getanalysis.cgi?region=MD&time=current&field=bulb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Temps will be fine outside the city. I don't see much of an issue of wasted QPF there. Wetbulbing will really chill it off near sunset. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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