CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I mean the point of winter storm warnings in general. I guess I just don't see the benefit of them for such low thresholds. There has to be some criteria. NWS responsibility is to notify the public of impending hazardous weather. What do you think the criteria should be? 10 inches? Hell 2 or 3 will shut down DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RAP actually looks north of DC! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031610&time=PER&var=SRATEI&hour=018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 About that super banding http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php This should be a fairly uniform moderate snow that occurs over maybe 8 hours. There will exist some heavier pockets of snow, but a 2-3 inch per hour band that sits over an area, its not that type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RAP actually looks north of DC! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031610&time=PER&var=SRATEI&hour=018 I think I say this every event lol. The RAP is not very useful. For a short range model, I have never found it to be very good at pinpointing small scale features/ localized precip maxes very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think I say this every event lol. The RAP is not very useful. For a short range model, I have never found it to be very good at pinpointing small scale features/ localized precip maxes very well. Yeah, before the 3/3 event, rap was showing 12-15" the night before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Qpf was better for our area, generally, last night, but best banding and rates to our south. Sent from my iPhone Ahh, ok. So while we may see .3" or more in qpf, it won't amount to much snow-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Ahh, ok. So while we may see .3" or more in qpf, it won't amount to much snow-wise. That's my guess. As of now, rates at this time of year will make it harder to pile up our way. A jog north would be needed. Or, one of those bands that always seems to set up over Westminster to you to phin could do the trick. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 anyone notice the forum clock hasn't been set for DST? Euro discussion was at 1AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 That's my guess. As of now, rates at this time of year will make it harder to pile up our way. A jog north would be needed. Or, one of those bands that always seems to set up over Westminster to you to phin could do the trick. Sent from my iPhone I'm not really complaining, just trying to understand why NWS went with a WWA and 1-2 when I see qpf near .4 or more (nam was .63 for Westminster). I didn't read back to find out, hence me asking. I'm good with none, or two, or whatever. I'm almost at 68" so if I was forced to want snow, I'd want to at least hit 70". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Always a risky bet to make places like Woodbridge and Stafford the jackpot on a mid march storm....some heartache ahead for those getting too excited I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Always a risky bet to make places like Woodbridge and Stafford the jackpot on a mid march storm....some heartache ahead for those getting too excited I think Agreed, Loudoun and Fairfax and Fauqier will win, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I know you are not complaining, just noting it wouldn't surprise me at all if your area gets to 4-5 inches. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 On another note, look at this squall line i Mississippi! http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=mob&product=N0R&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So the NAM has brought up the entire 500mb ULL for 3 runs in a row....Obviously probably way off, however I thought the 6z RGEM @ 54 hours looked very similar to the 6z NAM...We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The 00Z GFS MOS temp had DCA at 34 degrees at 11PM and the 00Z NAM MOS had dca at 36. Mos usually beats the raw model temps.....the surface temps remain a problem if you want warning criteria snow. Around the city that doesn't seem likely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Agreed, Loudoun and Fairfax and Fauqier will win, as usual. Not sure anyone will win just that I lived in Woodbridge for quite some time...it has its challenges accumulating snow....unless Jeb is giving obs of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM sim/rad for 8AM a little weak vs. reality (note the radar time is actually 7:38AM since it hasn't been updated) NAM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_006_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140316+06+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Reality: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So the NAM has brought up the entire 500mb ULL for 3 runs in a row....Obviously probably way off, however I thought the 6z RGEM @ 54 hours looked very similar to the 6z NAM...We'll see. If I were making a forecast for this event, I would probably give little to no weight to the NAM. Its had a 12-15" stripe of snow through DC and over the Delmarva for a few runs now. Btw your nickname should be HI-Z. Being a digital electronics/logic geek, its what I think of, plus it sounds cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 For reference, the 00z Euro says I should be at 40 degrees right now...I'm at 46. Euro has us at 36 at 8pm tomorrow and 30 and 2am. I'm a bit worried about surface temps running warmer even after 11 or midnight if the Euro is running too cold. Both NAM/GFS bufkits had IAD below freezing at 12Z when it sat at 37F. Still running warm. GFS MOS seems to have a handle on temps and they still look fine at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Always a risky bet to make places like Woodbridge and Stafford the jackpot on a mid march storm....some heartache ahead for those getting too excited I think probably should just leave that one in your sig since it applies to 75% of all predicted snows in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Another storm thread that' has been painful to read. Some mean and snarky stuff. Moderators should do some moderating. Also, it was full of weenisms. I thought general non-specific bull**** goes here. If you wanted to learn anything about model analysis it was a hard slog. I think the thread is fine. You are being too sensitive/critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The 00Z GFS MOS temp had DCA at 34 degrees at 11PM and the 00Z NAM MOS had dca at 36. Mos usually beats the raw model temps.....the surface temps remain a problem if you want warning criteria snow. Around the city that doesn't seem likely to me. I'm very concerned about temps now, especially if the heavier precip moves in earlier at night. For example, the NAM 2-m temps which have us quickly falling into the low 30's this evening had a high temperature today struggling to hit 40 after starting from the low 30's this morning. This is way off so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm very concerned about temps now, especially if the heavier precip moves in earlier at night. For example, the NAM 2-m temps which have us quickly falling into the low 30's this evening had a high temperature today struggling to hit 40 after starting from the low 30's this morning. This is way off so far. First thought I had when I woke up and temps are in the mid 30s with bright sunshine! starting to think lower totals with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm very concerned about temps now, especially if the heavier precip moves in earlier at night. For example, the NAM 2-m temps which have us quickly falling into the low 30's this evening had a high temperature today struggling to hit 40 after starting from the low 30's this morning. This is way off so far. I was at 34 when I woke up, 36.5 now. Probably will get to 41 or 42, but once the precip starts this evening temps should be around 37 and fall quickly to 32 within the first hour or so of moderate precip. I cant speak for DC itself, as the city is a heat magnet so there could be a few hours of non accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think the thread is fine. You are being too sensitive/critical.That is my nature. It bugs me. I expect more from people. We have very competent people here. Is a little self-control that hard? And it is a Mid-March event where even the best forecasters can really bust.Sorry. Mods feel free to delete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Temps will certainly be an issue for many. As Matt, Wes and some mets are pointing out, there are some red flags and should not be discounted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Temps will certainly be an issue for many. As Matt, Wes and some mets are pointing out, there are some red flags and should not be discounted true, while at the same time, there's a lot of cold air not far to our north that will be filtering south all day it'll warm with the sun, but when the high clouds start to move in the warming should be blunted some http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It's more the tone in which the criticism comes across. .. Personally, I think sometimes there is too much LWX bashing, even on here, considering how difficult it is to forecast weather around here. And the responsibility that is placed on them being the office that covers Congress, the White House, etc, etc. .. When they issue a warning, it's not lightly, considering one warning can basically be enough to shut down the Fed government, costing taxpayers tens of millions of dollars per day. And if they bust a call, there is a potential for crippling traffic jams as was the case of on Jan. 2011. Not saying CWG does not face public pressure as well, but LWX is the one who coordinates with numerous state, federal and local governments. Amen. A compassionate person exists on this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I went low-end in Storm #8 for the Ne.weather Snowfall Forecast Contest at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/index.htmForecasts had to be entered NLT 10:30pm 3/15/14. Consider participating next year. Contest results are laced heavily with interesting statistics.Time Stamp: 3/15/2014 7:19:42 PMForecaster: Herb@MAWSEmail: [email protected] CAR: 1 (not related to Storm #8)BGR: 0PWM: 0CON: 0BTV: 0BOS: 0HYA: 0ORH: 0PVD: 0BDR: 0BDL: 0ALB: 0BGM: 0.5 (not related to Storm #8)ISP: 0.1JFK: 0.1ABE: 0.05 (trace)MDT: 0.1PHL: 1ACY: 3.5EWR: 0.1BWI: 3IAD: 4.5DCA: 3.5SBY: 3RIC: 3ORF: 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 true, while at the same time, there's a lot of cold air not far to our north that will be filtering south all day it'll warm with the sun, but when the high clouds start to move in the warming should be blunted some http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=ne Yeah I agree. I am not concerned really. If I am in DC, maybe more of an issue for the first couple hours. If the whole thing ends up busting, so be it. Its March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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