Fozz Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm out. It was a good run but this just isn't happening up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 next Waiting for you to be told any snow is good snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Alrighty then, now that we have this one all wrapped up, time to go outside and enjoy spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Waiting for you to be told any snow is good snow. Sent from my iPhone I dunno at this point. I should have stayed full bear probably. I caved to pressure a little late yesterday. Wasn't the Euro a little south with 3/3 at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I dunno at this point. I should have stayed full bear probably. I caved to pressure a little late yesterday. Wasn't the Euro a little south with 3/3 at this range? Maybe. For my zip code the south and drier model runs were money on 3/3. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I dunno at this point. I should have stayed full bear probably. I caved to pressure a little late yesterday. Wasn't the Euro a little south with 3/3 at this range? Yes it was. I remember several models trended south and had SBY in the bullseye but the typical NW areas saw the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 .28" vs. .19" 0Z run at BWI couple more runs to increase it a 1/3 each time and I'm good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I wouldn't give up yet. We have wet models and dry models. Just shows uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I think in DC, I think I have equal chances of 4" and 1" ......and the greatest chance is 2-3"....so I'd probably forecast 2-3"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Preliminary snowfall... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Preliminary snowfall... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png 5-6" in DC?...lol...good luck with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Preliminary snowfall... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Nice map (hope it's right), that would indicate that perhaps wsw will be issued this afternoon for dc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yes it was. I remember several models trended south and had SBY in the bullseye but the typical NW areas saw the most. Euro was .8" snow on the 3/2 12Z run and dropped to .6" on the 3/3 0Z run thing is, on 3/3, the models caved on qpf <24 hours before the start, but this storm they went south 36+ hrs, now the NAM and Euro are increasing again comparing last 2 runs of each, so who knows, but I doubt anyone sees >6" in the DCA/BWI metro unless things jump way north last minute (the way they do only when they screw us for snow, that is!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Preliminary snowfall... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Interesting, their 10-14 butting up against NWS Blacksburg's 6-8 on their map........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 5-6" in DC?...lol...good luck with that Well it is what the GFS/GGEM/UKIE have if taken literally. I know we shouldn't, but just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm out. Anyone north of Baltimore should be ready for less than a inch lol. The good news is that it can only get better for Baltimore and north, because we're already at the bottom. DC should do okay, maybe 3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I dunno at this point. I should have stayed full bear probably. I caved to pressure a little late yesterday. Wasn't the Euro a little south with 3/3 at this range? Get out and enjoy your spring weather man! Drunk girls in green sun dresses all over midtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 5-6" in DC?...lol...good luck with that I'm not there so not sure but just thought I would add to the forum. There will be tweaks tonight I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm not there so not sure but just thought I would add to the forum. There will be tweaks tonight I'm sure. Can LWX hold off issuing anything till like after the 18z NAM/GFS? Or even the early 00z runs tonight? Or do they have to issue now if a WSWatch were to be issued? EDIT: They went ahead and issued it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY243 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHMONDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES...THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well it is what the GFS/GGEM/UKIE have if taken literally. I know we shouldn't, but just saying GFS drops like 0.5" by 6z.....GFS MOS is 39 at 0z....34 at 3z.....31 at 6z...even if it were true, how much of that precip would be accumulating snow?....Please don't take the GFS too seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I'm not there so not sure but just thought I would add to the forum. There will be tweaks tonight I'm sure. My point and click is 4-8".....yay me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Straight to WARNING in SW part of CWA... wow URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC243 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-WVZ505-506-160245-/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0009.140316T1800Z-140317T1800Z/AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...CHARLOTTESVILLE...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN243 PM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2000 FEET.* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MAY START OFF AS RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED ACROSS THE VALLEYS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AFTER SUNSET WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 30S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NOAA may score a huge coup.. They're pulling a NAM on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS has us below freezing and ripping by 6-7pm...meanwhile it will be 44 and cloudy....anyone remember 1/21?...when the GFS tried to front thump destroy us in the 1st 3-4 hours in the "warm sector"?, while every other model threw the best precip into cold air..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 IMO there was no need to have the watches north of I-70, where I think T-2" is much more likely than 5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Where's the cold front currently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 GFS has us below freezing and ripping by 6-7pm...meanwhile it will be 44 and cloudy....anyone remember 1/21?...when the GFS tried to front thump destroy us in the 1st 3-4 hours in the "warm sector"?, while every other model threw the best precip into cold air..... I do! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Mount Holly just pulled the trigger on watches for upper Delmarva and SNJ. My point click has 4-8 inches. 4" MAY be doable. CWG has 1-4 through much of the area with less than an inch N of Baltimore and 2-6 SW of DC. Conservative as usual but probably closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 CWG map.. probably one of the bigger divergences from NWS I can remember http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/15/update-on-the-snow-that-almost-nobody-wants-first-call-map-and-timeline/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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