yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WPC Day 1 snow probs (12z SUN to 12z MON): Also: DCA 10% chance, 40% chance in SW corner of LWX CWA for 8"+ Small 10% area of 12+" in SW corner of LWX CWA Link: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Fluvanna/Louisa/Goochland/Cumberland/Hanover/Caroline/Powhatan WSWarn 4-8 inches from Wakefield WFO... those counties border southern border of LWX CWA... prob means LWX witl be going WSWarning for at least southern counties Snowdude -- Salisbury WSWarn 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 MDZ021>025-161530- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.140317T0000Z-140317T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.140317T0000Z-140317T2100Z/ DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD... PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARDS: SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. * TIMING: TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 VAZ072>078-085-161530- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.140317T0000Z-140317T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.140317T0000Z-140317T2100Z/ KING WILLIAM-KING AND QUEEN-ESSEX-WESTMORELAND-RICHMOND- NORTHUMBERLAND-LANCASTER-MIDDLESEX- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...TAPPAHANNOCK 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: VIRGINIA NORTHERN NECK * HAZARDS: SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. * TIMING: TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 VAZ048-049-061>064-069-161530- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.140316T2100Z-140317T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.140316T2200Z-140317T2100Z/ FLUVANNA-LOUISA-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-HANOVER-CAROLINE-POWHATAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOUISA...GOOCHLAND...ASHLAND 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: CENTRAL VIRGINIA PIEDMONT. * HAZARDS: PRIMARILY SNOW. MIXED WITH SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS: 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. * TIMING: TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ023-024-162100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0009.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0008.140317T0000Z-140317T1600Z/ KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE- CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH... CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY 330 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 800 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL NOON ON MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE MARYLAND COUNTIES OF QUEEN ANNE`S, TALBOT AND CAROLINE, THE DELAWARE COUNTIES OF KENT AND SUSSEX, AND CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW THIS EVENING. THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING ON MONDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 OR 30 MPH. * VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S DURING MUCH OF THE SNOW EVENT. * IMPACTS...THE SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. && $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 MDZ021>025-161530- /O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0006.140317T0000Z-140317T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0005.140317T0000Z-140317T2100Z/ DORCHESTER-WICOMICO-SOMERSET-INLAND WORCESTER-MARYLAND BEACHES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMBRIDGE...SALISBURY...CRISFIELD... PRINCESS ANNE...SNOW HILL...OCEAN CITY 322 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AREAS AFFECTED: THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. * HAZARDS: SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET. * TEMPERATURES: UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. * TIMING: TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 FWIW, 03z SREFs still have 0.5" QPF line right at M/D line on 24 hr QPF map at hrs 36 and 39 850s are fine... 03z SREF has DCA at 32 at 00z tonght (8pm SUN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 6z NAM decent... 6"+ if it was all snow in DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 6z NAM decent... 6"+ if it was all snow in DCA Overall, NAM a little further north with heavier precip ( compared with 0Z ) as "blues" extend closer to M-D line. I think that this could tick a bit further north over the next 2 model runs. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 LWX discussion snips AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC400 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT NRLY FLOW. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED AT DIFFERENT RATES OVERNIGHT DEPENDENT ON THE WINDS. AREAS THAT HAVE DECOUPLED HAVE DROPPED FASTER. OVERALL...EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S IN NRN MD TO THE MID 30S IN CENTRAL VA AND THE METROS. CIRRUS HAVE MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE THE TREND THIS MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SRN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND NRLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. A WEDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE REGION AND DRY AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 40S AND UPPER 30S ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INTENSIFY AND RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHILE RAIN IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WARM. AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVES NE THIS AFTERNOON AND WET BULBING TAKES PLACE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME AND MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE INTO THE SE US. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE REACHED MIDDAY TODAY AS CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND TEMPS LEVEL OFF THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS AN ARRAY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TODAY AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO MODEL DIAGNOSTICS FROM WPC...THE 00Z GFS WAS NOT USED AS FEEDBACK EXISTS. USED THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF TO PORTRAY THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOWFALL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST FORCING EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL EXIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SNOW AMTS WILL DRAMATICALLY DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS NRN MD TO 6-8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL VA TO SRN MD. HIGHER AMTS EXPECTED ALONG THE RIDGE LINES IN CENTRAL VA. SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT MONDAY MORNING RUSH HR FOR THE BALT/DC METRO AREA. A WINTER WEATHER WARNING CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL VA. THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE DC METRO AND SRN MD. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NRN MD INCLUDING BALTIMORE...EXTREME NRN VA AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WV. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. NRLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN TEMPS IN THE LOW 30S. -- End Changed Discussion -- &&.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- STILL HAVE TO WATCH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM SOLUTION IS LARGELY DISCOUNTED...WHICH SUGGESTS LOW PRESSURE STRONGER AND MORE INLAND AND PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PARTICULARLY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM WILL BE WELL ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXCEPT PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. EVEN THE FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION WOULD STILL LIKELY ALLOW PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BACK ACROSS THE CWA AND THERE/S ALSO A SURFACE WEDGE OF SORTS STILL IN PLACE...THUS FAVOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. -- End Changed Discussion -- &&.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE CWA WEDNESDAY...THUS THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. IF PRECIP ARRIVES EARLY ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH AND WEST AREAS COULD HAVE LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP OTHERWISE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 434 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-WVZ505-506-161645- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0009.140316T1800Z-140317T1800Z/ AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG... CHARLOTTESVILLE...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 434 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH UP TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2000 FEET. * TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 40 THIS AFTERNOON...FALLING TO AROUND BY EARLY EVENING THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S LATE TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING. DANGEROUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE MONDAY. $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 434 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 DCZ001-MDZ009-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-052>055-057-161645- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0006.140316T2100Z-140317T1800Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0009.140316T2300Z-140317T1800Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...ANNAPOLIS... WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK... FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 434 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S BY MID EVENING AND THEN DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S LATE TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. $$ URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 434 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 VAZ027-029-030-039-040-050-051-056-501-502-WVZ055-501-502-161645- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0006.140316T2100Z-140317T1800Z/ /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0009.140316T2100Z-140317T1800Z/ SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER- SPOTSYLVANIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON...CULPEPER... FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM... PETERSBURG 434 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...AROUND 40 THIS AFTERNOON...FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING BY MID EVENING THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S LATE TONIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH ON MONDAY. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 wow what a difference two days makes I get busy for a couple of days, check up on the board and now I just might get snow for my birthday lol book it #StPattymageddon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 gfs continues snow till 00z wed morning, cant comment on anything else!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I still think 1-4" is too low, just after tonights latest model data. But CWG are conservative, and this storm has high bust potential and high boom potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 There's our storm in the south. Looks quite organized to me! http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 18 hours out RAP looks good http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014031608&time=INSTANT&var=SRATEI&hour=018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I still think 1-4" is too low, just after tonights latest model data. But CWG are conservative, and this storm has high bust potential and high boom potential. Yea, CWG often appears to like second-guessing LWX. LWX is holding firm with its forecast from yesterday, of up to 6 inches in DC proper. CWG is hedging with a fairly big range -- 1 to 4.. Wonder if it will also hold firm or nudge up closer to LWX's 3 to 6 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kilton Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yea, CWG often appears to like second-guessing LWX. Great to see mets actually thinking for themselves rather than hugging models and copying each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Great to see mets actually thinking for themselves rather than hugging models and copying each other. I agree, the NWS and the models sometimes don't account for regional topography- like the urban heat island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Great to see mets actually thinking for themselves rather than hugging models and copying each other. It's more the tone in which the criticism comes across. .. Personally, I think sometimes there is too much LWX bashing, even on here, considering how difficult it is to forecast weather around here. And the responsibility that is placed on them being the office that covers Congress, the White House, etc, etc. .. When they issue a warning, it's not lightly, considering one warning can basically be enough to shut down the Fed government, costing taxpayers tens of millions of dollars per day. And if they bust a call, there is a potential for crippling traffic jams as was the case of on Jan. 2011. Not saying CWG does not face public pressure as well, but LWX is the one who coordinates with numerous state, federal and local governments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 It's more the tone in which the criticism comes across. .. Personally, I think sometimes there is too much LWX bashing, even on here, considering how difficult it is to forecast weather around here. And the responsibility that is placed on them being the office that covers Congress, the White House, etc, etc. .. When they issue a warning, it's not lightly, considering one warning can basically be enough to shut down the Fed government, costing taxpayers tens of millions of dollars per day. And if they bust a call, there is a potential for crippling traffic jams as was the case of on Jan. 2011. Not saying CWG does not face public pressure as well, but LWX is the one who coordinates with numerous state, federal and local governments. I agree about the bashing thought, but I think that goes beyond just NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 And everyone is quick to criticize LWX for being slow to issue an advisory on a marginal event, etc, but forget there have been plenty of times where they have not wavered with a tough forecast, and not been over-reactive to each individual model run, and been correct. Feb. 9 2010 comes to mind. LWX went boldly 48-hours ahead of time with a forecast of 10 to 20 inches of snow for DC-Baltimore region. They nailed it, even though most other mets were highly skeptical those amounts were possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 And everyone is quick to criticize LWX for being slow to issue an advisory on a marginal event, etc, but forget there have been plenty fo times where they have not wavered with a tough forecast, and not been over-reactive to each individual model run, and been correct. Feb. 9 2010 comes to mind. LWX went boldly 48-hours ahead of time with a forecast of 10 to 20 inches of snow for DC-Baltimore region. They nailed it, even though most other mets were highly skeptical those amounts were possible. I remember that, CWG had 5-10" for me in N. Arlington, and DCA ended up getting 11" and I got 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WSW for 3-6" of snow. What's the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I still think 1-4" is too low, just after tonights latest model data. But CWG are conservative, and this storm has high bust potential and high boom potential. But why do you think its too low? This is not some juicy WAA event. Limited moisture influx. Probably 4-5 inches is about the max for any place outside of the high elevations of W VA. 2-4 or 3-5 would be my call, with an inch or 2 up in N MD. This is not a long duration event either, and like the early March event, its driven by cold air wedging in under mild air. Not much potential for some super-band setting up and lollipopping someones backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 WSW for 3-6" of snow. What's the point? ??? There exists a high probability of warning criteria snowfall.(4 or 5 inches depending on location) Thats the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Euro control at. 234 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Did the euro come in crappy? My forecast is 1-2 tho GFS and nam both give me near .4 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 ??? There exists a high probability of warning criteria snowfall.(4 or 5 inches depending on location) Thats the point. I mean the point of winter storm warnings in general. I guess I just don't see the benefit of them for such low thresholds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Did the euro come in crappy? My forecast is 1-2 tho GFS and nam both give me near .4 qpf 3" or so for you on the Euro. The .25 line parallels the pa/md line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 But why do you think its too low? This is not some juicy WAA event. Limited moisture influx. Probably 4-5 inches is about the max for any place outside of the high elevations of W VA. 2-4 or 3-5 would be my call, with an inch or 2 up in N MD. This is not a long duration event either, and like the early March event, its driven by cold air wedging in under mild air. Not much potential for some super-band setting up and lollipopping someones backyard. About that super banding http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Did the euro come in crappy? My forecast is 1-2 tho GFS and nam both give me near .4 qpf Qpf was better for our area, generally, last night, but best banding and rates to our south. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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