nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GGEM doesnt have DC going below freezing until midnight Much more realistic IMO, especially if we're in the upper 40s tomorrow. RGEM/GGEM did well with the timing of the changeover on 3/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 heh...GMTA....was just going to say same thing I'm sorta concerned we'll never get good rates with good temps.. or good rates at all. But maybe the Euro will look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 you kind of know sometimes...or have an idea...what's your call?...feeling pretty good about 4-8"? 0-8" per CWG I have no ****ing clue like everyone else.. I'll be surprised or disappointed but life will go on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm sorta concerned we'll never get good rates with good temps.. or good rates at all. But maybe the Euro will look nice. Ya right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 0-8" per CWG I have no ****ing clue like everyone else.. I'll be surprised or disappointed but life will go on -2" to 6" is a better call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 0-8" per CWG I have no ****ing clue like everyone else.. I'll be surprised or disappointed but life will go on sorry we are discussing the storm on a weather board?..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Keep an eye on dew points tomorrow. The NAM has dew points (dotted green in top panel) dropping early in the morning into the upper teens and then settling around 20. This, combined with a high of only 40, allows for good evaporative cooling as the precip arrives. And of course, ignore the silliness this shows for Tuesday…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm sorta concerned we'll never get good rates with good temps.. or good rates at all. But maybe the Euro will look nice. the models could go drier and further south tomorrow...there still a good 18 hours for this thing to further deteriorate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 the models could go drier and further south tomorrow...there still a good 18 hours for this thing to further deteriorate My bar is set appropriately low at least. 0.5" is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Keep an eye on dew points tomorrow. The NAM has dew points (dotted green in top panel) dropping early in the morning into the upper teens and then settling around 20. This, combined with a high of only 40, allows for good evaporative cooling as the precip arrives. And of course, ignore the silliness this shows for Tuesday…. Thanks for posting, but I think we know the NAM isn't going to be close to right with temps...it has me 38 degrees in 1 hour...it is now 50....the idea that immediate DC metro is going to be 32-33 at 8pm tomorrow is absurd.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I was surprised with late March last year. It doesn't take a ton to get a good burst that helps you perform. This is the time of year I'm most likely to bust as I can never fully punt climo likelihoods... even in a non climo situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 My bar is set appropriately low at least. 0.5" is a win. The signs are all there that this could be a big bust...I'd be surprised if we are warned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The signs are all there that this could be a big bust...I'd be surprised if we are warned... Why are you always the most pessimistic person in this thread? Just let whatever happens, no need to go about killing weenies all the time.. Anyways 44* and not a cloud in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The signs are all there that this could be a big bust...I'd be surprised if we are warned... now I thought back to the 10th percentile map. lol.. prob time for bed for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Why are you always the most pessimistic person in this thread? Just let whatever happens, no need to go about killing weenies all the time.. Anyways 44* and not a cloud in sight why you hate science? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I don't know why I am staying up for the euro. Probably going to be terrible anyways. Got to be up at 10am. This is a sickness. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm a lot more down on this storm than earlier. Euro is going to suck....we all know it at this point. 1 to 3 from Bmore to DC looks decent now. My earlier 3 to 5 would be the upper limit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 why you hate science? lol i know i know, just a little tired of the pessimism, all im saying is lets see the Euro before we totally kill ourselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 sorry we are discussing the storm on a weather board?..... Nah just the normal rationalizations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Why are you always the most pessimistic person in this thread? Just let whatever happens, no need to go about killing weenies all the time.. Anyways 44* and not a cloud in sight I'm trying to be realistic...there are plenty of people here and all over the internet who will give you what you want...false hope... LWX still gives you 6"...enjoy! http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/StormTotalSnowRange.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nah just the normal rationalizations. i dont even understand what you are saying...sorry I spend time analyzing the weather and you just troll...maybe you'll improve in your 2nd decade of being a regular poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Why are you always the most pessimistic person in this thread? Just let whatever happens, no need to go about killing weenies all the time.. Anyways 44* and not a cloud in sight Here...Sterling gives you an almost 50% chance of 8"+... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 now I thought back to the 10th percentile map. lol.. prob time for bed for me. we still have a 90% chance of more than 2" based on the latest maps, which LWX pimped out on their FB Page 30 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 i dont even understand what you are saying...sorry I spend time analyzing the weather and you just troll...maybe you'll improve in your 2nd decade of being a regular poster So hostile.. have a drink and relax. It's just the weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So hostile.. have a drink and relax. It's just the weather.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Optimism man! This could be the GFS' lone coup of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Optimism man! This could be the GFS' lone coup of the year! problem is the GFS isn't very good I know you love the NWS...I'm just a lawyer...they give us a 30% chance of getting 8"..... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT8.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Having watched the models for the past couple days for this storm, the two areas that concern me as per snow accumulation are: (1) marginal temperature at onset - ground temperatures leading into it combined with dropping air temperatures make it really hard to say when the snow will actually start accumulating. Here are a few pavement temperatures in the area: I270 @ I370: ~45F, US50 @ Beltway: ~48F, I97 @ MD32: ~45F, US50 @ Kent Narrows: ~45F. Even as the air cools quickly (and not all the models are even guarenteeing that it is sub-freezing by onset), the ground temperature has a long way to drop. We could see the first couple inches melt off, and with forecasts looking somewhat marginal on the low end for accumulation (4-6" for DC north), if 2-3" fall before it starts to stick, that's half our predicted snowfall. (2) Potential south shift / fringing across northern MD. If the temperatures are indeed colder and the onset is sub-freezing, then the canadian high is stronger and the track is generally running further south and the northern counties are fringed on the model runs that have shown this, again reducing accumulations. -- Therefore, while I definitely see a strong thump possible, we have to thread the track and temperature needle to get it. It's possible, and the models have been oscillating back and forth between warmer/wetter and colder/drier for us - we need somewhere right in the middle to be optimum, a statistical bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'm ready for a good warm, humid night. Crickets and tree frogs out in full force. Frequent flashes of lightning from incoming storms. That low rumble of thunder, and the wind breaking the otherwise silent night. Sorry for the banter. But I think we needed a break from this snow thing for a second lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 problem is the GFS isn't very good I know you love the NWS...I'm just a lawyer...they give us a 30% chance of getting 8"..... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/snowProbGT8.png Like? not necessarily.. respect? yes.. they know a hell of a lot more than I do.. Unlike commercial outlets, NWS has no incentive to hype and I doubt they are forecasting with the hope to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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