Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 DCA is -1.8C at 0Z tomorrow night and .10" has fallen Even with the apparent wiggle room at the surface on the gfs, I don't buy it. Highs In the mid 40s but freezing before 8pm. This isn't Jan and the sun just went down. Do you believe it's even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GFS looks like 2-4/3-5 I'll be optimistic and take 3-5. For March 17, that's pretty darned incredible, especially if the GFS (and NAM's) temperatures are even close to correct for during the day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Even with the apparent wiggle room at the surface on the gfs, I don't buy it. Highs In the mid 40s but freezing before 8pm. This isn't Jan and the sun just went down. Do you believe it's even possible? I just report the news, Sir, they don't pay me enough to comment on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Even with the apparent wiggle room at the surface on the gfs, I don't buy it. Highs In the mid 40s but freezing before 8pm. This isn't Jan and the sun just went down. Do you believe it's even possible? Only possible way I can think it is, is if there's some seriously pressing CAD as the day goes on. That, and evaporative cooling. Temps sure drop fast between 21Z-00Z per the raw temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Even with the apparent wiggle room at the surface on the gfs, I don't buy it. Highs In the mid 40s but freezing before 8pm. This isn't Jan and the sun just went down. Do you believe it's even possible? Yeah, it's not going to be freezing around these parts probably till like midnight. I full expect wet snow falling at 9pm to midnight with not a coating to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Yeah, it's not going to be freezing around these parts probably till like midnight. I full expect wet snow falling at 9pm to midnight with not a coating to show for it. Gfs raw temps keeps us in the upper 30's tops tomorrow. Has me at 27-28 at 8pm. I would be shocked if any of that verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Even with the apparent wiggle room at the surface on the gfs, I don't buy it. Highs In the mid 40s but freezing before 8pm. This isn't Jan and the sun just went down. Do you believe it's even possible? Earlier GFS MOS was 39 at 0z at DCA. Run looks similar so doubt it's much different. Maybe a degree colder or so. New NAM MOS has DCA at 36 at 3z. Dews will be low but with the 'high' starting temp we're not going to see wetbulbing to below freezing too easily there at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Maue posted this on twitter... ofc overdone but still nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 lol..are people actually taking the GFS seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Maue posted this on twitter... ofc overdone but still nice lol....like 1/2 that falls in the early evening when it is 40 degrees..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Earlier GFS MOS was 39 at 0z at DCA. Run looks similar so doubt it's much different. Maybe a degree colder or so. New NAM MOS has DCA at 36 at 3z. Dews will be low but with the 'high' starting temp we're not going to see wetbulbing to below freezing too easily there at least. yes...1/2 of GFS QPF is totally wasted if it is right...which of course it won't be.....it has had the same dumb solution for the last few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Gfs raw temps keeps us in the upper 30's tops tomorrow. Has me at 27-28 at 8pm. I would be shocked if any of that verifies The NAM initialized 9 degrees too cold tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Gfs raw temps keeps us in the upper 30's tops tomorrow. Has me at 27-28 at 8pm. I would be shocked if any of that verifies Basically the same on raw highs from 18z which gave MOS readings of mid-40s+. Possible we only reach like low 40s I guess.. though we're running a tick above MOS thus far tonight. Clear skies still yet. It's gonna need some gametime watching of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 yes...1/2 of GFS QPF is totally wasted if it is right...which of course it won't be.....it has had the same dumb solution for the last few runs... yep. it still looks better than it is.. though i'd take as much precip as i can get I suppose. pretty much every day this winter without strong CAA has ended up warmer than guidance too. we don't get much push of the cold air till after 18z tomorrow it seems, so it could go either way there I think. I'd probably lean toward the warm side of guidance during the day but if we are clear most of the night and cloudy early morning maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 yep. it still looks better than it is.. though i'd take as much precip as i can get I suppose. pretty much every day this winter without strong CAA has ended up warmer than guidance too. we don't get much push of the cold air till after 18z tomorrow it seems, so it could go either way there I think. I'd probably lean toward the warm side of guidance during the day but if we are clear most of the night and cloudy early morning maybe not. Nothing is going to convince me I get more than a cartopper before 11-12, unless miraculously tomorrow afternoon it is 35 degrees and radar is attacking us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 lol....like 1/2 that falls in the early evening when it is 40 degrees..... So only 4 inches in late March? I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Nothing is going to convince me I get more than a cartopper before 11-12, unless miraculously tomorrow afternoon it is 35 degrees and radar is attacking us.... That's what I love about weather.. you never know what's really going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 So only 4 inches in late March? I'll take it I doubt that much..I think that is the upper end of what me and you can expect...I'd still go 2-4".....GGEM should move south after RGEM did...I doubt euro gives us more than 0.3 - 0.4 total.....I think we have a better chance of 1" than 4" at this point...which is different than I thought before...but yes...I'll take whatever...they're just models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Basically the same on raw highs from 18z which gave MOS readings of mid-40s+. Possible we only reach like low 40s I guess.. though we're running a tick above MOS thus far tonight. Clear skies still yet. It's gonna need some gametime watching of course. It rarely comes easy here. Devil in the details as always. We do a pretty good job parsing the nowcasting details. First order of business is tonight's lows. Then afternoon highs. Snow should be coming down by 8pm. I'm not sure when it starts sticking. Pretty sure it won't be 8pm. That call seems easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 That's what I love about weather.. you never know what's really going to happen you kind of know sometimes...or have an idea...what's your call?...feeling pretty good about 4-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 That's what I love about weather.. you never know what's really going to happen especially when using American weather models as guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 0z GGEM is around 0.5" in DC total and 0.25" contour is up near M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 GGEM doesnt have DC going below freezing until midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Seeing how snow will most likely struggle to accumulate and maybe .5" max probably around DC. Came out with final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Seeing how snow will most likely struggle to accumulate and maybe .5" max probably around DC. Came out with final call. Looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Seeing how snow will most likely struggle to accumulate and maybe .5" max probably around DC. Came out with final call. That's a pretty good map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 That's a pretty good map Thanks, hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 Thanks, hope it works out. yeah, that's a decent call and pretty much along my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'd prob go 1-3" in my backyard if I made calls at this pt, with 2" the expected result. I like CWG numbers again after worrying a bit this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I'd prob go 1-3" in my backyard if I made calls at this pt, with 2" the expected result. I like CWG numbers again after worrying a bit this evening. heh...GMTA....was just going to say same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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