Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 You are likedProbably mainly unknown. I should mix in some praise too. You guys have one of the hardest CWAs to forecast for in the country and a huge population plus powerful eyes all around. I recognize there are many challenges and you all do about as well as can be reasonably expected in most cases. I hold NWS in very high regard on the whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM attempts to give us some ULL love later in the run. I kinda have a fetish for those, 3/1/09 being one of my favorites. Large rainstorm love you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM attempts to give us some ULL love later in the run. I kinda have a fetish for those, 3/1/09 being one of my favorites. I hope that is wrong any snow that falls will get out of here quick enough and we don't need a rainstorm to assist in the quick melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Large rainstorm love you mean Yep, hence my wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I think upper 40s sounds about right...I bet me and you don't hit freezing until midnight.....but of course at 33-34 at night if we get 0.75mi viz or less we should stick on measuring surfaces at somewhat crappy ratios.....so I guess we could start to get some accumulation by 10pm or so, but I'm not counting on it....Sounds about right overall. Haven't looked at much since this morning. I still don't buy the nam too heavily. In fact I'm barely factoring it in at all other than temps perhaps to a fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 4k NAM for DC/Arl/Alex drops ~0.5" between 3z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Large rainstorm love you mean the midwest system is sucking in warm air and quickly eroding what residual cold there was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2014 Author Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM is ridiculous with that ULL crap. We shouldn't even be considering that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 the midwest system is sucking in warm air and quickly eroding what residual cold there wasPlus no good models show that storm happening but some people keep caring what the end run nam shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 I hope that is wrong any snow that falls will get out of here quick enough and we don't need a rainstorm to assist in the quick melt I kinda hope it's right. It's time for birds and flowers, not a snowpack.Unlikely, but the ULL kinda tucks into the trough belly, so it'd be an interesting scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Well this still happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Lovely 35-40 degree rainstorm from the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Lovely 35-40 degree rainstorm from the ULL What does earl barker say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If it is a rainstorm, why is the NAM showing it on snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 NAM is ridiculous with that ULL crap. We shouldn't even be considering that Good ol' NAM QPF bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 HI RES NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If it is a rainstorm, why is the NAM showing it on snowfall?Because it rides the model short bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The reason I don't look at the nam past 48 hours is because of its high resolution. Tiny errors with initial conditions become grand canyon sized errors down the line. It should stop at 48-54 like the rgem. Nam is a good tool for certain things. And a monster ull at the end of its run with zero support is nothing more than a massively magnified error. I know most know this but it's always worth repeating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 this is the #1 US geography forum on the intertubes. I wish there was some weather discussion. Whatever felon!! You obviously haven't been reading lively weather product discussion last few hours. Fascinating and appreciated!!! Or maybe you did and just didn't understand...yeah that's probably it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 the midwest system is sucking in warm air and quickly eroding what residual cold there was Euro .3" qpf should save us there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If it is a rainstorm, why is the NAM showing it on snowfall? It's actually sleet for the back half, the "snowfall" algorithm isn't picking up the 750mb warm tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The reason I don't look at the nam past 48 hours is because of its high resolution. Tiny errors with initial conditions become grand canyon sized errors down the line. It should stop at 48-54 like the rgem. Nam is a good tool for certain things. And a monster ull at the end of its run with zero support is nothing more than a massively magnified error. I know most know this but it's always worth repeating Basically and worth noting but will be ignored by 6z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If this belongs in banter so be it... but here is Channel 4's first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 The reason I don't look at the nam past 48 hours is because of its high resolution. Tiny errors with initial conditions become grand canyon sized errors down the line. It should stop at 48-54 like the rgem. I've heard this before, but at some point I'll ask someone to explain this to me. Does this mean that if at some point the Euro gets to the resolution the NAM is currently at, it will be useless past 48 hours? I always thought the reason the NAM was pretty bad past 48 hours was because it's a regional model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If this belongs in banter so be it... but here is Channel 4's first call Lol, that is their second call. Their first call was earlier this AM and was different than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 If this belongs in banter so be it... but here is Channel 4's first call Did they increase totals again? They went with that map last night but changed DC to 2-4" this morning in their update. I guess this is their first "real" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Basically and worth noting but will be ignored by 6z nam. Lol- truth 84 hour nam is like a d10 on the globals. I like the nam for certain things. I don't like when people who bash the nam don't understand how to use it. It will have a very incorrect solution at d4.5 every single run. On the flip side it can sometimes school a global at 24-48 hours. Not with every type of storm but it's a very useful model imo. I don't care what anybody says about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Steve Rudin ABC7 @SteveRudinABC7 3m 2" to 4" for the #District - higher amounts south. Keep in mind models don't account for snow that will melt on contact at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 Did they increase totals again? They went with that map last night but changed DC to 2-4" this morning in their update. I guess this is their first "real" call. Actually as noted that was their call from last night then they lowered it this morning https://twitter.com/dougkammerer/status/444678193371295744 https://twitter.com/dougkammerer/status/444822935724122112 Maybe they reverted back or the youngin used the wrong graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2014 Share Posted March 16, 2014 RGEM looks south from 18Z I hate collapses w/in 24 hrs from any model EDIT: not that it's a total collapse, but it's cutting back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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