Grading the winter of 2013/14

[NorthShoreWx]

As I say to my son when he gets 100 on a test, 'very good, but you can do better'.

[JetsPens87]

As I say to my son when he gets 100 on a test, 'very good, but you can do better'.

Save for an extra credit opportunity. .. How can be do better than a 100? Lol

[NYCsnowfiend]

A- but if next weeks storm hits us it will be A+ with extra credit done!

[Isotherm]

I'd give it an A, with A being the highest grade (I don't believe in A+'s with anything), reserved essentially for any winter greater than or equal to 60" of snowfall. Just under 62" here. 15-20 nights in the single digits, a minimum of -2 in January, and over 100 minima sub 32 on the season. Decent snowpack duration.

 

We had accumulation in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, and hopefully April. Colder than normal Nov, Jan, Feb, Mar, and possibly April.

 

Need a little more to make this the #3 winter snowfall wise here, and a little over 10" to beat the #2 spot of 2009-10.

[NYCsnowfiend]

I'd give it an A, with A being the highest grade (I don't believe in A+'s with anything), reserved essentially for any winter greater than or equal to 60" of snowfall. Just under 62" here. 15-20 nights in the single digits, a minimum of -2 in January, and over 100 minima sub 32 on the season. Decent snowpack duration.

We had accumulation in Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, and hopefully April. Colder than normal Nov, Jan, Feb, Mar, and possibly April.

I don't blame you for grading it an A can't really get better than that for a weenie haha

[Absolute Humidity]

The vast majority of our snow fell from Jan 2nd through Feb 4th. I only had 7" from the 2/13 storm. It's hard to give an A to a season with snow over only one month. I'd rate winter 2010-11 similarly.

I had no idea the south shore mixed over so early for the Feb 13th event. I was kinda shocked we stayed all snow down here until the dry slot around 11am. We did get a fair slug of rain that evening before flipping back to snow.

[SnoSki14]

The month of March is a C-, very little snow, just more cold and dry so far. One big storm would easily make it go up to a B+ or even an A grade.

[Absolute Humidity]

The month of March is a C-, very little snow, just more cold and dry so far. One big storm would easily make it go up to a B+ or even an A grade.

I give March a solid B down here with 3.6" so far. The March 3rd event, although only 2" was quite nice in that it snow in the low 20's and It lasted for three days. Last year March was an A with a little over 9" from three events.

[Rjay]

I had no idea the south shore mixed over so early for the Feb 13th event. I was kinda shocked we stayed all snow down here until the dry slot around 11am. We did get a fair slug of rain that evening before flipping back to snow.

Only the extreme south shore went over that early

[RU848789]

 

A.

 

Some highlights:

 

1. 1st subfreezing high temperature in November since 1996

2. 61° low temperature on 12/22/2013 -- highest ever during the winter season

3. 4° low temperature on 1/7/2014 was the lowest reading in NYC since 1/16/2004

4. 7 low temperatures below 10°, the most since winter 2003-04

5. 3 high temperatures below 20°, the most since winter 2003-04

6. 9° low temperature on 2/28/2014 was the coldest so late in the season since 1967

7. 18° low temperature on 3/13/2014 was the latest reading in the teens since 1993

8. Biggest snowfall of 12.5"

9. Two 10" or greater snowstorms

10. Seasonal snowfall to date of 57.4" (7th highest on record)

 

Hard to understand how anyone can look at these stats and not consider this winter an "A." Just for argument's sake, if one assumes 15 possible grades (A+, A, A-, B+, B, B-, etc., even including F+, F, F-, which I know is a little silly, but if considering + and - for all the other letters, why not for F, also?) and 145 years of winter records in NYC, then that averages out to about 10 seasons for each grade, meaning there would be about 10 A+'s, 10 A's, 10 A-'s and so on.

If one looks at it that way, I'd be hard pressed to think that a winter that's top 7 in snow (A+) and I assume will end up top 30 in cold (A-), wouldn't be an A overall (average of A+ and A-). And even if it's only top 40 for cold (haven't seen a ranking yet - and I would include March, which will help with the cold ranking), which would be a B+, personally, I rank overall winter as 2/3 snow rank and 1/3 cold rank, as snow is more important to me - and if you do that, it would still be an A average.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Only the extreme south shore went over that early

South of sunrise I wouldn't call that extreme which to me is barrier islands. I measured 8" in south wantagh at my house and 10" just south of the southern state at my gf's house. (2.5 miles due north) it was ripping rain sleet mix at about 930 at my place and she confirmed pan cake flakes continuing. Not sure when the transition occurred up there as she could care less. I would assume based on rates about 1015.

That was one of the better north vs south storms on li.

Hoping for that last minute bump to A before spring

[Rjay]

South of sunrise I wouldn't call that extreme which to me is barrier islands. I measured 8" in south wantagh at my house and 10" just south of the southern state at my gf's house. (2.5 miles due north) it was ripping rain sleet mix at about 930 at my place and she confirmed pan cake flakes continuing. Not sure when the transition occurred up there as she could care less. I would assume based on rates about 1015.

That was one of the better north vs south storms on li.

Hoping for that last minute bump to A before spring

I do ...anything south of sunrise is pretty close to the bay. And the barrier islands are in a land of its own lol

[jm1220]

I do ...anything south of sunrise is pretty close to the bay. And the barrier islands are in a land of its own lol

I really wonder what must have happened that morning to stop the progression of the mix line. It went from Asbury Park to my house in an hour and then just stopped dead. Seeing the insane rates we had go to rain was so frustrating, especially when it continued almost everywhere else. The mixing literally held itself to the immediate shores for hours, even just inland over Monmouth held on. The warming 925mb temps on the models the night before concerned me, and that's exactly what came to pass.

[Absolute Humidity]

I really wonder what must have happened that morning to stop the progression of the mix line. It went from Asbury Park to my house in an hour and then just stopped dead. Seeing the insane rates we had go to rain was so frustrating, especially when it continued almost everywhere else. The mixing literally held itself to the immediate shores for hours, even just inland over Monmouth held on. The warming 925mb temps on the models the night before concerned me, and that's exactly what came to pass.

There were warm 925 pockets indeed. The warming was far from uniform. Hard to tell exactly why since everywhere had good vv's dynamics. Some areas well inland mixed early like Philly and other areas, of all places, Cape May held on to all snow while AC was raining as depicted in this Duel pol shot.

[jm1220]

There were warm 925 pockets indeed. The warming was far from uniform. Hard to tell exactly why since everywhere had good vv's dynamics. Some areas well inland mixed early like Philly and other areas, of all places, Cape May held on to all snow while AC was raining as depicted in this Duel pol shot.

I thought for a while that morning I'd be good for some time, since the mix line seemed to hang up around Toms River, but then around 8:30AM it surged north and was over me within an hour. The 925mb warming meant business where it set up. But once just north of here, the warming was a nonfactor until the very end. The dynamics were quite helpful keeping it snow for the majority of people.

[nzucker]

Still too early to go with a final grade because of the Wednesday storm potential, but I'd give it at A- in Bay Ridge so far.

 

Pros:

• 57.5" of snow is more than double the average of 24-25" for Brooklyn's South Shore
• Four major storms: 12", 11", 10.5", 8"
• Persistent cold: March is -4.3F, February was -3.7F, January was -4.0F, November was -2.5F
• 4 days of single digit lows in early January, including low of 4F on January 7th

Cons:

• Lack of a HECS: biggest snowfall was 12"
• Lack of extreme arctic cold, which was focused to west, as NYC did not see 0F again (min of 4F on 1/7)
• December was only moderately wintry with +1F departure and one 4" snowfall
• March has had only .5" of snow despite being much colder than average

**Grade could increase to A or A+ if we receive a MECS/HECS in late March, bringing snowfall to historic highs

[REDMK6GLI]

Still too early to go with a final grade because of the Wednesday storm potential, but I'd give it at A- in Bay Ridge so far.

Pros:

• 57.5" of snow is more than double the average of 24-25" for Brooklyn's South Shore
• Four major storms: 12", 11", 10.5", 8"
• Persistent cold: March is -4.3F, February was -3.7F, January was -4.0F, November was -2.5F
• 4 days of single digit lows in early January, including low of 4F on January 7th

Cons:

• Lack of a HECS: biggest snowfall was 12"
• Lack of extreme arctic cold, which was focused to west, as NYC did not see 0F again (min of 4F on 1/7)
• December was only moderately wintry with +1F departure and one 4" snowfall
• March has had only .5" of snow despite being much colder than average

**Grade could increase to A or A+ if we receive a MECS/HECS in late March, bringing snowfall to historic highs

I will totally agree with this. The lack of the "BIG ONE" really makes me not say its an A+

[Guest Pamela]

 

Cons:

•  
• Lack of extreme arctic cold, which was focused to west, as NYC did not see 0F again (min of 4F on 1/7)
•  

 

 

Since the coldest temperature at Central Park in the last 71 years is -2 F (or just 6 degrees away from the minimum for the year)...I would not agree with what you wrote.

[NorthShoreWx]

Since the coldest temperature at Central Park in the last 71 years is -2 F ...

 

That is a sad sad statistic.

[Morris]

Still too early to go with a final grade because of the Wednesday storm potential, but I'd give it at A- in Bay Ridge so far.

Pros:

• 57.5" of snow is more than double the average of 24-25" for Brooklyn's South Shore
• Four major storms: 12", 11", 10.5", 8"
• Persistent cold: March is -4.3F, February was -3.7F, January was -4.0F, November was -2.5F
• 4 days of single digit lows in early January, including low of 4F on January 7th

Cons:

• Lack of a HECS: biggest snowfall was 12"
• Lack of extreme arctic cold, which was focused to west, as NYC did not see 0F again (min of 4F on 1/7)
• December was only moderately wintry with +1F departure and one 4" snowfall
• March has had only .5" of snow despite being much colder than average

**Grade could increase to A or A+ if we receive a MECS/HECS in late March, bringing snowfall to historic highs

I agree with this, but I'd give it a B.

A lot of snow but no major one can't be an A.

[JBG]

I would give the winter an A. Not A+ or A-, just A.

 

The winter featured, on the plus side, a very rare combination of persistent and deep cold, and snow cover for 80 days, at least.  On the con side, and this is a quibble, the lack of a HECS.  We have been spoiled since 1995-6 with a plethora of those.

 

Even if one goes to periods thought of as "snowy", such as the late 1950's through 1969, there weren't that many HECS's; March 26, 1956, March 2, 1960, the two of 1960-1 (January 20 was famous for coinciding with JFK's inauguration but wasn't that huge), January 11-12, 1964, February 7, 1967 and "Mayor Lindsay" or February 9, 1969.  And then nothing above 10" until 1977-8, then close to 10" of PD of 1979, then Megalopolis of 1983 and then nothing until the "Storm of the Century" in March 1993, which went over to rain.  It wasn't really until 1995-6 that we started getting 10+ storms on a regular basis. We have had it good and this winter was, overall, a real winter.

[Absolute Humidity]

I would give the winter an A. Not A+ or A-, just A.

 

The winter featured, on the plus side, a very rare combination of persistent and deep cold, and snow cover for 80 days, at least.  On the con side, and this is a quibble, the lack of a HECS.  We have been spoiled since 1995-6 with a plethora of those.

 

Even if one goes to periods thought of as "snowy", such as the late 1950's through 1969, there weren't that many HECS's; March 26, 1956, March 2, 1960, the two of 1960-1 (January 20 was famous for coinciding with JFK's inauguration but wasn't that huge), January 11-12, 1964, February 7, 1967 and "Mayor Lindsay" or February 9, 1969.  And then nothing above 10" until 1977-8, then close to 10" of PD of 1979, then Megalopolis of 1983 and then nothing until the "Storm of the Century" in March 1993, which went over to rain.  It wasn't really until 1995-6 that we started getting 10+ storms on a regular basis. We have had it good and this winter was, overall, a real winter.

Agreed and nice write up. My only issue is with 1997-99 were terrible.

[Momza]

a+ for potential

b+ for actual weather events

A for longevity (first flakes in Nov/last flakes touching April) wow 5 months....

Hecs are Hecs for a reason. They do not happen often. So it should not alter the aggregate.

[Absolute Humidity]

a+ for potential

b+ for actual weather events

A for longevity (first flakes in Nov/last flakes touching April) wow 5 months....

Hecs are Hecs for a reason. They do not happen often. So it should not alter the aggregate.

I only use the HECS metric for A + grade requirement. Otherwise this winter was a slam dunk A

[Sock Puppet]

March has left such a bitter feeling that I'm grading it a C+

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[Rjay]

March has left such a bitter feeling that I'm grading it a C+

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Quality assessment

[JBG]

Agreed and nice write up. My only issue is with 1997-99 were terrible.

There were other terribles in there too. 2001-2, 2006-7 and 2007-8 (with a few good moments but nothing spectacular), and 2011-2 (with the October Storm but otherwise nothing). My point is that overall the winters since 1992-3 really have been, on balance, better than the preceding 20 years.  I also left out the 9.6" of April 6, 1982, which was spectacular for both timing and thunder even if not over 10".

[Absolute Humidity]

There were other terribles in there too. 2001-2, 2006-7 and 2007-8 (with a few good moments but nothing spectacular), and 2011-2 (with the October Storm but otherwise nothing). My point is that overall the winters since 1992-3 really have been, on balance, better than the preceding 20 years.  I also left out the 9.6" of April 6, 1982, which was spectacular for both timing and thunder even if not over 10".

Other than 93,94 and 96 I try to forget about that decade as whole. It was truly terrible down here but in terms of your assisment, 93 onward does mark the era of big snows.

[weatherlogix]

March has left such a bitter feeling that I'm grading it a C+

Sent from my SCH-I535

I agree - plus my heating bills were uselessly high since late Feb. Disgusting.

[jm1220]

March has left such a bitter feeling that I'm grading it a C+

Sent from my SCH-I535

I'm keeping it as a B/B+. Our luck runs out at some point every winter (besides the Goliath ones like 95-96 that come around maybe once per century), and we don't have go-to storm types for snow like New England or the Midwest.