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3/18-3/19 Icy Event


JoshM

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I don't even know what is falling right now. It's like a cross between ZR and microflakes. All I know is that we're still below freezing and it looms like a winter wonderland now. Not a lot of accumulation, but all non-paved surfaces are now white. Radar looks interesting. Time to head home.

I'm in downtown GSO right now, so maybe it will be snowier west of here at the house.

 

EDIT: Just got home...  The latest HRRR paints 0.4-0.5" QPF over this area with precip falling until the wee hours of the morning.  Looks like it wants 2-3" of that to be snow.  We'll see, I guess.  It shows the heaviest precip falling basically along the I-85 corridor from around Concord up to High Point, Greensboro, and up towards Roxboro.

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Was on 1-40/85 from Alamance Community College to Burlington about an hour ago.  Heavy sleet!  Multiple wrecks!  People doing 75mph and you could see the sleet piling up.  Absolutely stupid people.  They slowed down once they saw cars and 18 wheelers bouncing off the guardrails.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
357 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

...PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH
A LITTLE SLEET AND SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

NCZ007>010-021>025-038-039-180400-
/O.EXT.KRAH.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-140318T1600Z/
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-
DURHAM-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...
HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...
HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...
DURHAM...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY
357 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT ALONG
  AND JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
  ALONG WITH SOME SLEET AND SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION...AND
  OVERNIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION A TENTH INCH OR LESS.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
  AND CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT...MUCH
  OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
  DRIZZLE.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30.

* IMPACTS...MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN GLAZE OF ICE
  ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND ROADS AS TEMPERATURES FALL. ANY SLEET
  AND SNOW THAT FALLS...EVEN WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...WILL ALSO
  HELP TO PRODUCE AREAS OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. WHILE
  ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES
  ARE NOT EXPECTED.

 

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I don't even know what is falling right now. It's like a cross between ZR and microflakes. All I know is that we're still below freezing and it looms like a winter wonderland now. Not a lot of accumulation, but all non-paved surfaces are now white. Radar looks interesting. Time to head home.

I'm in downtown GSO right now, so maybe it will be snowier west of here at the house.

 

EDIT: Just got home...  The latest HRRR paints 0.4-0.5" QPF over this area with precip falling until the wee hours of the morning.  Looks like it wants 2-3" of that to be snow.  We'll see, I guess.  It shows the heaviest precip falling basically along the I-85 corridor from around Concord up to High Point, Greensboro, and up towards Roxboro.

 How much QPF does the HRRR paint over Winston-Salem and western areas of the Triad? Is there a link available?

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Really? Snow tonight? Why isn't the NWS picking up on that? They're only saying little additional accumulation. How accurate is the HRRR?

In every storm this year for me atleast it has been close to spot on. 

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 How much QPF does the HRRR paint over Winston-Salem and western areas of the Triad? Is there a link available?

 

0.3" for INT.  It falls off west of the Forsyth County line, though.  The NW part of the county is ~0.20" while the SE part is ~0.40".  There's really nothing west of Mt. Airy and Hickory.

 

I think you can find the HRRR free somewhere, but I was looking at WeatherBell.

 

I'm sometimes a bit skeptical of where the actual precip will set up going by these short-range models, but they do seem to usually do a good job of indicating that there will be a potent band somewhere.  The placement is always questionable, though.  We'll see.

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0.3" for INT.  It falls off west of the Forsyth County line, though.  The NW part of the county is ~0.20" while the SE part is ~0.40".

 

I think you can find the HRRR free somewhere, but I was looking at WeatherBell.

 

I'm sometimes a bit skeptical of where the actual precip will set up going by these short-range models, but they do seem to usually do a good job of indicating that there will be a potent band somewhere.  The placement is always questionable, though.  We'll see.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t6&run_time=17+Mar+2014+-+16Z

Thats the link for the free HRRR

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Don't be fooled by the snow amounts.

 

Its not going to happen very likely they're overdone. That 17z(1pm) run of the HRRR is the newest run yes and data was put it and started. But the current time right now is 20:32(4:32). 

But I think the most important aspect of the hrrrr is it continues pumping in moisture to and past midnight. Past midnight Raleigh east. But between 10pm-12am tonight for the Triad.

 

It will probably be what is already falling. Alot of sleet/ some flakes and zr but not the high amounts of 2-4" of snow. Alot of places are going to remain a good solid inch or under.

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Don't be fooled by the snow amounts.

 

Its not going to happen very likely they're overdone. That 17z(1pm) run of the HRRR is the newest run yes and data was put it and started. But the current time right now is 20:32(4:32). 

But I think the most important aspect of the hrrrr is it continues pumping in moisture to and past midnight. Past midnight Raleigh east. But between 10pm-12am tonight for the Triad.

 

It will probably be what is already falling. Alot of sleet/ some flakes and zr but not the high amounts of 2-4" of snow. Alot of places are going to remain a good solid inch or under.

 

You aren't by any chance NC Piedmont Weather on FB, are you? If so, me and my 2 friends are your biggest fans. LOL

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You aren't by any chance NC Piedmont Weather on FB, are you? If so, me and my 2 friends are your biggest fans. LOL

Oh no. This is the only site I post on with weather related topics. Sorry but I'm not him on FB. In fact I don't even have a FB account. OT I got tired of it because seems like every body post about the same thing.... how much a hoe someone is or how sucky my life is or dinner recipes.

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Oh no. This is the only site I post on with weather related topics. Sorry but I'm not him on FB. In fact I don't even have a FB account. OT I got tired of it because seems like every body post about the same thing.... how much a hoe someone is or how sucky my life is or dinner recipes.

 

LOL! I've deleted most of those "friends". I really thought you were him. Anyways, thanks for all your good info. :)

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