superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 00z Euro is further south than last run by 50+ miles with the initial wave. Looks like C VA gets crushed. NOVA is fringed. Yikes, big differences between the Euro and the other modeling with precip up in the Mid-Atlantic. Much further south with the precip shield. We'll see if round two does us any good. EDIT: Eh, the Euro sucks for all. I guess those of us closer to the VA border can hope for it to trend south another 50-100 miles in order to put us in the game with round #1, but we're probably pretty close to tip-off time to see big shifts now. Well, the clown gives N NC T-2", so maybe there's some wintry precip in there. Maybe I'm blind, but I didn't see it, though. EDIT: Oh, wait, now I see what's going on. The 00z Euro is REALLY cold in the mid-levels. It's so cold that N NC gets T-3" of wet snow out of wave #1! Very interesting! That's why the clown map shows what it shows! The 850 mb 0C isotherm gets down south of I-40 at one point. That might be something to watch..... DC is in an interesting predicament. The GGEM/NAM are crushjobs with 6-12" or so. The Euro might give them 2". Baltimore gets a dusting. Presumable winners per this run are SW VA, particularly Roanoke, Blacksburg, etc. EDIT: RPM Model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I realize it's just a clown map (and not all/any snow in NC), but look at the relative snow minimum nosing up through the middle of Wake county. Raleigh urban heat island? Hmm... I don't know. Maybe. I'm not sure how detailed the high-resolution models get with that kind of stuff. With regards to the Euro, you'd have to wonder about stickage, though it looks like the bulk of the snow falls in the wee hours of the morning pre-dawn (roughly midnight until dawn on Monday morning, basically), so the March fireball won't be scorching the flakes as (if?) they fall . Road stickage is certainly unlikely given the setup depicted, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 06z NAM is way, way, way south. The northern DC metro gets nothing but cold/dry. S VA gets crushed. Big hit for portions of NC, too... The clown map is a riot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Latest from RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 06z NAM is way, way, way south. The northern DC metro gets nothing but cold/dry. S VA gets crushed. Big hit for portions of NC, too... The clown map is a riot. Looks all ZR to me. Major ice storm. Hi Res surface has it mainly as IP for central NC. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 06z nam gives GSO .36 ip and .94 zr. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 12z NAM is sig. drier for Tuesday across much of the south. Also warmer. Trend seems to be to keep it in line with the GFS. It still looks to be a lot of IP/ZR for central NC on Monday along I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 12z GFS today comes in with .37" zr for Raleigh over a 30 hour period per the Meteogram Generator. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks all ZR to me. Major ice storm. Hi Res surface has it mainly as IP for central NC. Sent from my HTC One Oh, yes, I'm not sure if there's a way for us to get a much snow out of this at this point. The Weatherbell clown had 9" in parts of NC, haha (surely, it was not much snow, of course). The 12z NAM/GFS was significantly drier, though... The 12z GGEM is kind of interesting. You'd have to think some of the NC border counties might see a few inches out of it. EDIT: Well, surface temperatures suck, so perhaps not. It's a little late for the EPS mean now, but nevertheless they basically doubled for N NC on the 00z run. GSO's mean is now over 2" (was ~1.2" last night). Every single member shows some wintry precip from what I can gather. About half are light, some are moderate, and there's a few "major" events (though these are the outliers). I still feel pretty good about some ZR/IP here at some point, though I doubt it will be anything more than a nuisance (if even that). The 12z Euro run might be telling. It looks like some of the EPS members want us to have some fun with the ULL, hence some of the higher totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epps88 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 What do you all think Danville, VA could possibly get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 RAH has a very lengthy disco this afternoon, but it looks like they're emphasizing Monday night as the possible problem time frame. THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT IS ALSO QPF DEPENDENT...AND WHILE THE NAMIS DRIER...THE GFS AND THE NEW ECMWF ARE NOTICEABLY WETTER...WITH ASMUCH AS A QUARTER-INCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGHAPPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE WEST. IF THIS TRENDCONTINUES...GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT THIS COULD BE THEPERIOD WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS COULD BE MOST ACUTE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH. THIS WOULD ALSO BE ASLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONCERN DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...ORNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA ARE FORECAST A COUPLE OFDEGREES BELOW FREEZING OR SO... AND THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STILLCOLD...YIELDING A LIKELIHOOD OF NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS SURFACEWET BULB TEMPERATURES THERE CONTINUE TO BE BELOW 0C. WHILE ANADVISORY-TYPE SCENARIO OVERALL IS PREFERRED AT PRESENT AS THE EVENTDRAWS NEAR...IF THERE WAS ONE PERIOD IN THIS PART OF THE FORECASTWHERE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED ACATEGORY...THIS COULD BE THE ONE. PRUDENT TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDSREGARDING THIS FIFTH PERIOD FORECAST FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Crazy that the weather is awesome today and 48 hours from now we might be waiting for an ice storm. Really hope the models are wrong or this ends up more snow than ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Tuesday storm turning into a monster on the 18z NAM. 850's crashing around closed low. Too bad it's the long range NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Yeah anyone in the eastern half of the state needs to hug the last nam run. bear hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 18z RGEM came in colder. Light frzn starting mid-day Monday for RDU, obviously the further NW you are the colder. It's nothing heavy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Whoa there, 18z NAM goes crazy with the ULL. NAM'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Is the NAM showing more snow this time or still ice?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Is the NAM showing more snow this time or still ice?. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Nope. Nope what? No snow and still ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Nope what? No snow and still ice? Nope snowpe. Looks like rain to me. Have no idea what the surface temps are, but a low in the coastal plain is not snow for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 IMO for the second round there will be a narrow strip of ice around I-85 in the NC Piedmont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Anyone read anything today from Robert at WXSouth? I believe he is pretty good at forecasting for the SE .Yesterday he had several post on facebook,about the storm coming, but nothing today that I can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Nope snowpe. Looks like rain to me. Have no idea what the surface temps are, but a low in the coastal plain is not snow for RDU. Need that low to go another 50-100 miles west so we here in the east get dry slotted, do not need rain or ice for that matter....luckily we stay above freezing but the river is running full, all the ditches are just now getting low again and the last thing I want to see is a bunch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Anyone read anything today from Robert at WXSouth? I believe he is pretty good at forecasting for the SE .Yesterday he had several post on facebook,about the storm coming, but nothing today that I can find. my guess is it doesn't look as icy as it did last night reason no tweets today! I don't think its much to worry about this part of the country maybe just a mixture of stuff no major winter storm here.... now Central and South West Virginia probably going to get clobbered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 18z GFS ups KCLT from ~ 0.3" ZR to 0.4", NAM is 0.5" NAM handles the cold air at the surface better than the GFS does IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 my guess is it doesn't look as icy as it did last night reason no tweets today! I don't think its much to worry about this part of the country maybe just a mixture of stuff no major winter storm here.... now Central and South West Virginia probably going to get clobbered It's still a high impact event for parts of NC too, not a huge area, but some will experience a decent ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 my guess is it doesn't look as icy as it did last night reason no tweets today! I don't think its much to worry about this part of the country maybe just a mixture of stuff no major winter storm here.... now Central and South West Virginia probably going to get clobbered I would guess he took advantage of today's weather and got away from the computer for a while...I'm betting he will provide some thoughts with tonight's 0z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 18z GFS and 18z NAM both show decent ice storms for the same areas that got hit last time......... The 12z Euro is also icy, though fairly light in the precip department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 I would guess he took advantage of today's weather and got away from the computer for a while...I'm betting he will provide some thoughts with tonight's 0z data. Yea, I'm sure he'll be back before game time! lol. I was just saying if models was looking as good today as they were last night he would have been all over it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Well I got a chance of a mix from Sunday night thru Tuesday morning. lol .SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SLEET LIKELYAFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR100 PERCENT..MONDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN ACHANCE OF SLEET AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOWACCUMULATION. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S.NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT..MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOWACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEASTWINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT..TUESDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT..TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID30S. HIGHS AROUND 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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