JoshM Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 With models getting a better handle on the cold air and more ZR each and each run, I think the time to start the thread has arrived. NAM was very close with it's temperature profiles during the last event, never had KCLT in the action, but the 18z is showing half an inch of ZR for them. KRDU shows .76" of ZR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm Southeast of RAH by 18 miles, but I'll pass on the .76" Freezing rain the 18z Nam is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Solak, you and I are probably about 10 miles apart. I am with you on the ZR thing. I suspect that in March, we'll be ok down here. I mean, it would take some pretty extraordinary circumstances for us to get 3/4 inch of ice in March. We're an eternity away from RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Keep in mind 0.76" liquid worth of ZR does not equal 0.76" of ice accretion, since all of it will inevitably not accrete and instead run off, especially in more marginal temperatures and/or under heavier rates. JoshM gives us good vibes as the OP of this thread. The 18z GFS and 18z NAM were very interesting. Apparently, we can't get ice any other time of year these days, but March is the new prime climo period for ice storms. --- Interestingly, out to the end of its run, the 18z RGEM appears to be south of the 18z NAM. The EPS mean is interesting. It appears almost every member is onboard with some light wintry precip across at least N NC. There's a few moderate members, but none that are all that significant (0.6"+ QPF worth of wintry precip). The mean plumes look slightly improved from last night's run (albeit basically the same). There's a 15z SREF plume that gives GSO 9"+ of snow. I'm hugging it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Keep in mind 0.76" liquid worth of ZR does not equal 0.76" of ice accretion, since all of it will inevitably not accrete and instead run off, especially in more marginal temperatures and/or under heavier rates. JoshM gives us good vibes as the OP of this thread. The 18z GFS and 18z NAM were very interesting. Apparently, we can't get ice any other time of year these days, but March is the new prime climo period for ice storms. --- Interestingly, out to the end of its run, the 18z RGEM appears to be south of the 18z NAM. The EPS mean is interesting. It appears almost every member is onboard with some light wintry precip across at least N NC. There's a few moderate members, but none that are all that significant (0.6"+ QPF worth of wintry precip). Pack likes the RGEM. If it keeps looking good, I'll start to get optimistic about this deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 WRAL showed snow and ice for a lot of central NC this Monday night as the system exits. I think it was their in-house model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Looks icy for the CAD regions of NC and VA. This is the probability of warning criteria ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper Jim Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Whole thing trending warmer last few days from GSP AFDs. Honestly, given trends... nothing notable gonna happen from DC southward. ZR in Mid-March. LOL Slap a pink tag on me! It's over for anyone under 3K - NC, SC, GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Whole thing trending warmer last few days from GSP AFDs. Honestly, given trends... nothing notable gonna happen from DC southward. ZR in Mid-March. LOL Slap a pink tag on me! It's over for anyone under 3K - NC, SC, GA. yeah GSP never really had a shot. I've seen it trending colder in lower levels, crucial for cold rain vs zr, at least for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 0z NAM actually gets some snow down to the VA/NC line this run. Looks good for Virginia CAD areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 0z NAM actually gets some snow down to the VA/NC line this run. Looks good for Virginia CAD areas. Yeah the first wave is alot of snow for northern sections and zr/sleet for central sections south to va line. Then after 1st wave passes a backdoor cold front will setup the zr/sleet/snow for round 2 with the secondary surface and ULL. Overall atm from 18z looks slightly colder and further south... the keyword slightly. Still prodominately looks zr south of VA/NC line. Wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The 00z NAM shows a long-term ice storm with temperatures in the 20s throughout (with the second "round"). Not sure if I believe with it being mid-March. We'll see. If the "first round" trends any further south, though, it's close to snow in N NC. Pretty substantial shift from 18z to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 The NAM is a long-term ice storm with temperatures in the 20s throughout (with the second "round"). Not sure if I believe with it being mid-March. We'll see. If the "first round" trends any further south, though, it's close to snow in N NC. Pretty substantial shift from 18z to 00z. The NAM handled the temperatures pretty good during the last event... I see no reason this setup would differ. Unfortunately I think many that saw 33 and rain last time won't fare so lucky this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 NC folks should probably keep and eye on the second round to see how it trends in the next few days. Looks icy, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 The NAM handled the temperatures pretty good during the last event... I see no reason this setup would differ. Unfortunately I think many that saw 33 and rain last time won't fare so lucky this round. If you take the NAM at face value, some of the worst-hit areas from the last storm get a good hit again. GSO gets 0.3" QPF with surface temperatures in the upper 20s. Randolph County (to the south) gets 0.50"+ QPF with temperatures ~30. Looks like Raleigh gets in on some decent icing, too. Of course, it's still going at hr 84, so there's more to come after that. Normally, I would think this solution is ridiculous, but we did just see a major ice storm on 3/6-3/7, so it's possible, I guess. Larry has mentioned several ice storms in mid to late March. I hope there's more IP than ZR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 That looks seriously icy down into the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Hope it keeps going further south and is more snow than ice. I don't want ice and trees down, and I know the folks that just got hit hard don't want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 0z NAM actually gets some snow down to the VA/NC line this run. Looks good for Virginia CAD areas. Things definitely looking more wintery for us.. NAM overdone but key thing is it fell in line with other models regarding rain/snow line and track. If trends continue tomorrow, maybe solid 3-5" in ROA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Anything is possible in this abstract year. IMO But seriously 2 major zr events is pushing it in the month of March. I seriously think the nam is having convective feedback issues or issues of some sort. Granted its a weak HP the 1st wave without a doubt is all rain south of the VA border. But the 1st wave passes the back door cold front pushes south as the HP is building SE as well. Then if you look at the 850 level there is a board 850 LP that goes from LA to S GA then off the coast of GA/SC. Thermally with a building HP that doesn't make sense. I'm not saying or denying the possiblity of alot of ZR. But considering there is a backdoor cold front with a weak HP building and a 850 LP traversing from LA to GA to off the coast that and a ULL that screams to me something is off here. All point to perfect CAA at the right time at the right place for the backside of round 2 to be predominately snow. Not zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU2005 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Are we outside of the timeframe where the GFS has value? Haven't seen any discussion on 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 0z gfs just started and working its way into that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Ian posted this in the Mid-Atlantic thread, so enjoy your fun clown map that may or may not be anywhere close to being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Models still pretty consistent with the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Don't know if it's been posted, but on the other board, they posted Roberts latest tweet: something about bad ice in cad areas down to NGA according to the latest NAM! I feel safer now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 Don't know if it's been posted, but on the other board, they posted Roberts latest tweet: something about bad ice in cad areas down to NGA according to the latest NAM! I feel safer now! Thought you weren't watching models anymore... winter is done for you, remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Thought you weren't watching models anymore... winter is done for you, remember?Yeah, then somebody throws out a tweet to sucker me back in, even though I know what happened down here when similar thoughts were said last time! I'll keep looking out the window for ice cream trucks or just ice, it really don't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 15, 2014 Author Share Posted March 15, 2014 0z NAM went lower on the ZR for KCLT, but it now has some sleet accumulations... adds up to about the same QPF as 18z. Definitely trending colder, I don't know about NE GA being in the game, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Don't know if it's been posted, but on the other board, they posted Roberts latest tweet: something about bad ice in cad areas down to NGA according to the latest NAM! I feel safer now! Thought you weren't watching models anymore... winter is done for you, remember? Right Josh. But earlier I thought the system was lost. But the indications of the last couple runs most def indicate a stronger system overall. Not saying Mack will see snow... I'm not pyschic or have a time machine. But all clues point to a stronger system overall unlike the last. I know mack seen some partially wet globs of snow. But looks like his area could see some ice cicles hanging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 0z NAM went lower on the ZR for KCLT, but it now has some sleet accumulations... adds up to about the same QPF as 18z. Definitely trending colder, I don't know about NE GA being in the game, but we shall see. Well, the 0Z NAM verbatim has ZR for upstate and even to AHN and N ATL Mon night. However, it is the very unreliable 72-84 hour NAM, which is on its own in these areas with it that cold. So, no reason to believe it at this point. Edit: latest major ZR on record for ATL: 3/25/1971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheapdad00 Posted March 15, 2014 Share Posted March 15, 2014 Ian posted this in the Mid-Atlantic thread, so enjoy your fun clown map that may or may not be anywhere close to being right. I realize it's just a clown map (and not all/any snow in NC), but look at the relative snow minimum nosing up through the middle of Wake county. Raleigh urban heat island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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