Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

you're still using raw temps.. though i suppose that's a losing battle since it's been ongoing all winter.  tho precip is in earlier which probably does keep them from nearing 50.

 

you're still using raw temps.. though i suppose that's a losing battle since it's been ongoing all winter.  tho precip is in earlier which probably does keep them from nearing 50.

 

Well I am going off the soundings... it looked like 4c was the highest... even 7c is 43-44

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Really though...why would anyone in DC proper anticipate accumulating snow? For us N&W on our "hills" we have a legit shot. You don't...right?

I wonder how some of you never become good posters even though you're here every winter. It's truly perplexing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meteorology is a complex topic. Takes longer for many to learn it. Not everyone is a savant.

It's not about being a savant. There are plenty of newbies who make great posts without even adding a lot to the forecasting angle. There are others who are happy to remain aloof and act like living just outside the Beltway at the same latitude puts them in a climate zone that is akin to southern New England or something. 

 

I've not said I won't get snow.. I might get a lot of snow. I dunno. I kinda doubt it, but after March 15 I don't get too angry over something I shouldn't expect.  I'm just assessing what I see in this model compared to previous runs of the same model and other models. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm perplexed how every time you don't get a shot at snow you get aggressive at those who might. Every winter.....

Naa, I live in DC and understand it's mid March. Not all of us can live in the mountains just outside the Beltway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just looked at the text numbers on accuweather for the GFS and they look way too cold. Hard to believe it will snowing here Mon. 12z with a temp of 18 and then only make into the mid 20's for highs. QPF is believable but temps are not. Don't really but the extended period of light snow following the initial surge. Fun storm to track nonetheless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If only the Euro could follow suit.

We'd probably be better off if it was the only model to look at. Though maybe the Canadians are on to something. If the GGEM ends up right I'll give huge kudos to those guys.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'd probably be better off if it was the only model to look at. Though maybe the Canadians are on to something. If the GGEM ends up right I'll give huge kudos to those guys.

I pray it is right, it is showing 12-16". That is like a twice in 100 year storm so it is hard to believe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I pray it is right, it is showing 12-16". That is like a twice in 100 year storm so it is hard to believe.

It's very consistently illogical. Kind of odd.. tho with everything else still shifty who knows.  I'm actually not declaring that it's not going to snow in DC or anything--I honestly don't know even if I'm leaning toward the low end. 

 

post-1615-0-19332200-1394772578_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If only the Euro could follow suit.

As you know with any storm there can be massive changes within 72 hours but especially in March. What looks good can be taken away in a snap, however at least some snow is a good bet for most of the region. I would expect the Euro to follow suit tonight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As you know with any storm there can be massive changes within 72 hours but especially in March. What looks good can be taken away in a snap, however at least some snow is a good bet for most of the region. I would expect the Euro to follow suit tonight.

You think the Euro follows the GGEM?.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As you know with any storm there can be massive changes within 72 hours but especially in March. What looks good can be taken away in a snap, however at least some snow is a good bet for most of the region. I would expect the Euro to follow suit tonight.

12z Euro's probably better than the last GFS down here at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As you know with any storm there can be massive changes within 72 hours but especially in March. What looks good can be taken away in a snap, however at least some snow is a good bet for most of the region. I would expect the Euro to follow suit tonight.

edit: But not to the extent of the GGEM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadian looks similar to Feb 13 storm.  Big slug up front, then ice / dry slot, then ULL comes through with round 2.  Similar to last night's solution, but I think round 2 is not as intense. 

 

I'd like to see the Euro come around as well, but once again the Canadian has been the most consistent model.  It held relatively steady even when the Euro and GFS went with suppressed solutions.  The Canadian was also consistent with the Feb 13 storm, and although I don't remember it the NY forum gives the GGEM a lot of credit for holding firm on the March 3 storm when the Euro / GFS jumped north and then south again.  I'm not saying we're getting a foot of snow, but it's really hard to discount the GGEM at this point -- perhaps this is just a pattern that it handles well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I actually think the qpf numbers on the GFS are reasonable. I don't think suppression will be a problem unless the high get ridiculously strong. It will probably come down to how much precip is wasted.

If that is the case you should be in great shape.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...