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Saint Patrick's Day Snow Event


stormtracker

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If you wish to believe the RaleighWX snow maps... 3-4 inches I-95 and west by 00z MON... 5"+ I-81 corridor to BR and to the SW near CHO

 

Through 8 am MON (12z MON):  I-81 corridor from Winchester to CHO biggest winners (including E WV) 9-12"... BWI-DCA-EZF 5-7...  IAD/HGR 6-8

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When it comes to drawn out, intricate phasing processes amongst various moving parts, the GFS can get wonky. I'm trying not to get too emotionally invested in this thing, but I liked the trends today. Now all we need is either for the front vort to slow once it passes, or weaken, and then the ULL can enter play more easily in terms of a well timed phase.

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Interesting it's further north and colder at the sfc. High is about perfect though. Verbatim it may be a bit less ideal in the mid levels but haven't seen soundings.

 

Interesting it's further north and colder at the sfc. High is about perfect though. Verbatim it may be a bit less ideal in the mid levels but haven't seen soundings.

 

I already have... column is good from 5pm or so till 2am at DCA... slight warm nose nudges in after 800-850 level... not huge but it gets to 0 and then slowly drops back below 0... thats why I asked if precip was light do we switch over to FZDZ since rest of column is fine or stay with light snow

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Problem IMBY is I'm willing to bet a million bucks it's too cold to start and it's getting more front loaded/early with the thump.  I want it squarely overnight and in like 30 minutes. I'm not sure it's a good trend for DC but hey we have a lot of optimists here.

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Problem IMBY is I'm willing to bet a million bucks it's too cold to start and it's getting more front loaded/early with the thump.  I want it squarely overnight and in like 30 minutes. I'm not sure it's a good trend for DC but hey we have a lot of optimists here.

For DC you are probably right but for N&W this was a very good run.

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I already have... column is good from 5pm or so till 2am at DCA... slight warm nose nudges in after 800-850 level... not huge but it gets to 0 and then slowly drops back below 0... thats why I asked if precip was light do we switch over to FZDZ since rest of column is fine or stay with light snow

lots of precip prior to 0z and 32 line just slipping se of me by then.. add at least 3-5 off the always bogus raw temps and eh. 

 

post-1615-0-34159000-1394769966_thumb.pn

 

the panels after are kinda lame.. at least around here.

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Problem IMBY is I'm willing to bet a million bucks it's too cold to start and it's getting more front loaded/early with the thump.  I want it squarely overnight and in like 30 minutes. I'm not sure it's a good trend for DC but hey we have a lot of optimists here.

Of which most live west of DC...hence the optimism.

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Problem IMBY is I'm willing to bet a million bucks it's too cold to start and it's getting more front loaded/early with the thump. I want it squarely overnight and in like 30 minutes. I'm not sure it's a good trend for DC but hey we have a lot of optimists here.

I don't think city and burb folks can avoid temp probs. The gfs run is pretty wet and moves lock step with precip and hp pressing. We're prob just gonna have to root for the wettest solution and let the chips fall

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lots of precip prior to 0z and 32 line just slipping se of me by then.. add at least 3-5 off the always bogus raw temps and eh. 

 

attachicon.gifgfs_6hr_precip_washdc_25.png

 

the panels after are kinda lame.. at least around here.

 

Quite possible, but I would argue, as I think you said above, that with the high in perfect position for us for CAD, temps should be slightly cooler.

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DC was okay on this run IMO... yeah probably waste an hour or two of snow before starts accumulating... but sounding is all snow at or just after 5pm

Yes, but it is going to be tough getting snow to stick 2 and a half hours before sunset when the temps are close to 50 earlier in the day.

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For DC you are probably right but for N&W this was a very good run.

there's still quite a bit of time. no doubt the features all shifted north and faster/more into daylight. i initially thought this would be a north trender... not sold it will be.. trends argued otherwise so i quieted on that. euro is the only model that really matters but the americans are def northish in recent runs.

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Yes, but it is going to be tough getting snow to stick 2 and a half hours before sunset when the temps are close to 50 earlier in the day.

 

This run of the GFS caps DCA in low 40s it would appear... and even that is only for a few hours around 1pm or so before temps start falling again

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This run of the GFS caps DCA in low 40s it would appear

you're still using raw temps.. though i suppose that's a losing battle since it's been ongoing all winter.  tho precip is in earlier which probably does keep them from nearing 50.

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