stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 Not bad GFS, not bad. A bit more phase...cold high holds...not sure of total qpf yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS further south. Smokes NoVa again. lol, wut?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Looks like we switch over to FZDZ overnight if I am reading the soundings right? Or just really light snow? QPF is light, surface in the 20s... but 800-850mb warm nose comes in around the 2-8am MON morning time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 lol, wut?? Sorry, in comparison to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 If you wish to believe the RaleighWX snow maps... 3-4 inches I-95 and west by 00z MON... 5"+ I-81 corridor to BR and to the SW near CHO Through 8 am MON (12z MON): I-81 corridor from Winchester to CHO biggest winners (including E WV) 9-12"... BWI-DCA-EZF 5-7... IAD/HGR 6-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 998 MB low in south Georgia at 96 hours could be very interesting with the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Interesting it's further north and colder at the sfc. High is about perfect though. Verbatim it may be a bit less ideal in the mid levels but haven't seen soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 What model are you looking at? GFS is deeper with the lead vort @ 500mb, tilted, and deeper @ the surface. Could be good with that beast hp. i had to refresh/clear cache: it;s why i deleted it quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 That is one really tight gradient on the snowfall maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 14, 2014 Author Share Posted March 14, 2014 it's a good run. and it's NOT farther south. I'd lock it in if I could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 not sure how I feel about being in the bullseye (other than the mts and west) this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 When it comes to drawn out, intricate phasing processes amongst various moving parts, the GFS can get wonky. I'm trying not to get too emotionally invested in this thing, but I liked the trends today. Now all we need is either for the front vort to slow once it passes, or weaken, and then the ULL can enter play more easily in terms of a well timed phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Interesting it's further north and colder at the sfc. High is about perfect though. Verbatim it may be a bit less ideal in the mid levels but haven't seen soundings. Interesting it's further north and colder at the sfc. High is about perfect though. Verbatim it may be a bit less ideal in the mid levels but haven't seen soundings. I already have... column is good from 5pm or so till 2am at DCA... slight warm nose nudges in after 800-850 level... not huge but it gets to 0 and then slowly drops back below 0... thats why I asked if precip was light do we switch over to FZDZ since rest of column is fine or stay with light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 .8-.9 area wide. Taking all things into consideration it supports a 3-6" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Problem IMBY is I'm willing to bet a million bucks it's too cold to start and it's getting more front loaded/early with the thump. I want it squarely overnight and in like 30 minutes. I'm not sure it's a good trend for DC but hey we have a lot of optimists here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Problem IMBY is I'm willing to bet a million bucks it's too cold to start and it's getting more front loaded/early with the thump. I want it squarely overnight and in like 30 minutes. I'm not sure it's a good trend for DC but hey we have a lot of optimists here. For DC you are probably right but for N&W this was a very good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 For DC you are probably right but for N&W this was a very good run. DC was okay on this run IMO... yeah probably waste an hour or two of snow before starts accumulating... but sounding is all snow at or just after 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I already have... column is good from 5pm or so till 2am at DCA... slight warm nose nudges in after 800-850 level... not huge but it gets to 0 and then slowly drops back below 0... thats why I asked if precip was light do we switch over to FZDZ since rest of column is fine or stay with light snow lots of precip prior to 0z and 32 line just slipping se of me by then.. add at least 3-5 off the always bogus raw temps and eh. the panels after are kinda lame.. at least around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Problem IMBY is I'm willing to bet a million bucks it's too cold to start and it's getting more front loaded/early with the thump. I want it squarely overnight and in like 30 minutes. I'm not sure it's a good trend for DC but hey we have a lot of optimists here. Of which most live west of DC...hence the optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 For DC you are probably right but for N&W this was a very good run. yeah I can definitely see this bringing DC 2" of slop while Manchester gets 9" and we get maybe 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Problem IMBY is I'm willing to bet a million bucks it's too cold to start and it's getting more front loaded/early with the thump. I want it squarely overnight and in like 30 minutes. I'm not sure it's a good trend for DC but hey we have a lot of optimists here. I don't think city and burb folks can avoid temp probs. The gfs run is pretty wet and moves lock step with precip and hp pressing. We're prob just gonna have to root for the wettest solution and let the chips fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 lots of precip prior to 0z and 32 line just slipping se of me by then.. add at least 3-5 off the always bogus raw temps and eh. gfs_6hr_precip_washdc_25.png the panels after are kinda lame.. at least around here. Quite possible, but I would argue, as I think you said above, that with the high in perfect position for us for CAD, temps should be slightly cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 DC was okay on this run IMO... yeah probably waste an hour or two of snow before starts accumulating... but sounding is all snow at or just after 5pm Yes, but it is going to be tough getting snow to stick 2 and a half hours before sunset when the temps are close to 50 earlier in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 For DC you are probably right but for N&W this was a very good run. there's still quite a bit of time. no doubt the features all shifted north and faster/more into daylight. i initially thought this would be a north trender... not sold it will be.. trends argued otherwise so i quieted on that. euro is the only model that really matters but the americans are def northish in recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 yeah I can definitely see this bringing DC 2" of slop while Manchester gets 9" and we get maybe 6". In these late season storms every foot of elevation makes a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Of which most live west of DC...hence the optimism. yeah.. pretty sure that's not the reason, but good try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yes, but it is going to be tough getting snow to stick 2 and a half hours before sunset when the temps are close to 50 earlier in the day. This run of the GFS caps DCA in low 40s it would appear... and even that is only for a few hours around 1pm or so before temps start falling again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It looks like about 1, maybe 2" for DC...I'm pretty bearish on this threat...except for well north and west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 This run of the GFS caps DCA in low 40s it would appear you're still using raw temps.. though i suppose that's a losing battle since it's been ongoing all winter. tho precip is in earlier which probably does keep them from nearing 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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